By: Nick LaPorte, 6/25/2019
This summer, the NBA is looking at a potential shift in the balance of power. With the Warriors more vulnerable than ever, the Western Conference is wide open. The Lakers have already traded for Anthony Davis, pairing him with LeBron James and setting up the Lakers as contenders once again. The Trail Blazers, Nuggets, Thunder, Rockets, and Jazz are also bringing back title contenders in the West.
In the Eastern Conference, the Celtics are likely losing their 2 best players; Al Horford and Kyrie Irving. The Raptors are hoping for Kawhi Leonard to re-sign, but he very well may head to LA. The Nets are also preparing to let D’angelo Russell walk, leaving only 2 surefire contenders in the East: the Bucks and the 76ers. I’ve created this list of the top 10 players available in free agency, and 8/10 players are currently on Eastern Conference teams.
This means we are in a peculiar situation; if everyone just stays put, that’ll leave roughly 5-6 real title contenders in each conference. But from what we do know, many of these 10 players look primed to sign with new teams. In this post, I will give some potential destinations for each player, and chose the best fit. In some cases, it’s hard to do so. For example, Kemba Walker’s best situation might be in LA with James and Davis. But he would leave $50 million or more on the table. Still, I will take into account all of these factors as I try to pick the best teams for each player.
*Note: these are my picks for the best fit, not necessarily my predictions.*
1.) Kevin Durant, SF, Warriors
26.0 PPG, 5.9 APG, 9x All-NBA, 2013-2014 MVP
Durant was on his way to a legendary postseason before injuring his calf in game 5 of the Western Conference semifinals. He would miss the next 9 games, before coming back in game 5 of the NBA Finals. Durant then ruptured his Achilles, and is expected to miss all of the 2019-2020 season. Still, Durant is young (30), and when healthy he was arguably the best player in the NBA.
Before his injury, the Knicks and Nets showed significant interest. KD seemed headed straight for NY after the Finals. Now, I think it makes more sense to recover in a familiar place, and only leave when you feel ready. For what it’s worth, Golden State may be willing to trade KD to a team of his choice later on if he re-signs, as it would allow them some flexibility with the cap as they are maxed out. This works out best for all parties.
The Warriors make the most sense to me for KD. He can sign the 5-year max contract, rehabilitate on their dime, and then ask for a trade next summer if he wants to leave. The Knicks will still want him; and they can easily overpay 1-2 free agents if they have to make the salaries match next summer in a trade. KD will be 32, and still recovering from an Achilles tear. But KD is a special player, and one that relies on his shooting more than athleticism. He may never win an MVP again, but he can still be a top-10 player.
Possible: Warriors, Nets, Knicks
Verdict: Warriors 5-year max (trade later)
2.) Kawhi Leonard
26.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 3x All-NBA, 2x DPOY, 2x Finals MVP
When the Raptors traded for Kawhi last summer, they did so with a clear goal in mind: win the championship, then figure it out after that. Last summer, Kawhi gave indications that he was headed to LA when his contract ended. The Raptors pulled the trigger on the trade anyway, deciding one year of contention with Kawhi was enough to convince him to stay. To his credit, Kawhi has never given an indication whether he likes Toronto or not. He’s respectful of the fans, and this season, played through a mysterious injury en route to a championship.
Toronto feels like they have a chance to keep Kawhi into next season, and beyond. Chris Haynes of Yahoo has reported that the Raptors have a better chance than we thought. Still, both LA teams have expressed outward interest in signing the 2-time Finals MVP. The Clippers have opened up 2 max contract slots, with the intention of signing Kawhi and another free agent. The Clippers have a good coach, Doc Rivers, an owner willing to spend money on a contender, and a defensive-minded team that fits with Kawhi’s style. The Clippers, though, haven’t made any progress in pairing a star with Kawhi just yet.
The Lakers, on the other hand, have already made moves. Lebron James and Anthony Davis anchor the core, with a potential $27 million in cap room. That’s not enough for Leonard, but the Lakers could be creative and try to get enough room to sign Kawhi. If that happened, it would make the Lakers overwhelming favorites. They would have 3 of the top 10 players in the NBA. The Raptors have a good team though, and Kawhi is the centerpiece. Would he rather be the #1 option on the Raptors, or the #2/#3 on the Lakers? Kawhi should sign a 2 or 3-year deal in Toronto with an opt-out, become a free agent next summer, and then sign the max contract available for players with 10 years of time in the NBA. This maximizes earnings while also running it back 1 more time in Toronto.
Possible: Raptors, Clippers, Lakers
Verdict: Raptors, 2+1 or 1+1 max
3.) Jimmy Butler
18.7 PPG, 4x All-Star, 2x All-NBA
The 76ers saw an opportunity and traded for Jimmy Butler in November. They hoped that Butler would become their third star, paired with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, and they could run that big-3 through the East for years to come. With Simmons and Embiid due for contracts over the next few years, any deal with Butler would need to be over-the-cap, which they didn’t see as a problem since they have his Bird rights. The 76ers went on to trade for Tobias Harris as well, and went on to the Eastern Conference semifinals. Harris struggled against the Raptors, but Butler excelled. It was largely due to Butler’s on-court leadership that the 76ers only lost game 7 on a buzzer-beater.
While the 76ers GM Elton Brand wants to bring back the same core, Butler may be tempted to test free agency. The Nets seem like a good fit, with their ability to sign 2 max contracts. Whether that other star is incumbent D’angelo Russell, malcontent Kyrie Irving, or injured Kevin Durant, the Nets already have the bones of a playoff team. If they land Butler and another star, they may become true title contenders. The more curious situation would be the Rockets.
Houston GM Daryl Morey is handcuffed by the Chris Paul contract, although Paul seems unhappy. Houston has expressed interest in acquiring Butler, although that seems less likely now that Butler has opted out of his contract. The money would work easier if he had opted in, but Butler could still make it work. Morey would have to find a new home for Paul Eric Gordon, or Clint Capela, but this could be solved by a sign-and-trade. If Butler has serious interest in the Rockets, they will find a way. I think Butler should stay in Philadelphia though, for a few reasons. The fans have come to love Jimmy “Buckets,” who embodies the hardworking city in his play style. Butler also stands to lose money if he leaves for Brooklyn or Houston, and Jimmy is already turning 30. Get the most money available while you can, and as a bonus you’re already a contender in Philly.
Possible: 76ers, Nets, Rockets
Verdict: 76ers, 5 year max
4.) Kyrie Irving
23.8 PPG, 6.9 APG, 5.0 RPG, 2x All-NBA
Sometimes it’s hard to separate Irving the basketball player from Irving the person. On one hand, you have a dynamic point guard who can score at will, shoot from anywhere, and once hit a 3 to clinch a championship against the 73-win Warriors. On the other hand, you have a player that has been disenchanted on both his teams, believes in the flat-earth theory, and seems unhappy in just about any situation. Kyrie’s problem might be a mixture of both aspects; perhaps his game is best suited as a 2nd star on a team, and his personality only meshes well when he doesn’t have to be a leader. For example, when he played with Lebron in Cleveland. The Cavaliers won 1 championship and made it to 3 NBA Finals with Irving and Lebron.
Even so, Kyrie forced his way out of Cleveland and headed to Boston. Citing his preference to be a “leader,” Kyrie assumed control of a young Celtics team that seemed to be one piece away from winning the East. In 2 seasons in Boston, Irving’s Celtics did make it to a game 7 in the Eastern Conference Finals; that happened, however, with Irving on the bench with an injury. Irving has a long list of troublesome injuries and a pattern of discontent in every locker room. But as a player, he makes up for it. Irving has excelled at every level; in an injury-shortened freshman year at Duke, Irving showed enough to be taken 1st overall in the 2011 draft. With the Cavaliers, Irving was a 4-time All-Star, and in his 2 years in Boston, Kyrie’s play reached a new high. Coming into the 2018-2019 season, Kyrie was the 2nd most coveted free agent; behind only Kevin Durant.
Boston is no longer on Irving’s list, according to sources. Kyrie is headed to his 3rd NBA team, and the three teams in play are the Nets, Knicks, and Lakers. The Knicks seem least likely now; before Kevin Durant’s injury, the Knicks hoped to sign Durant and Irving, and build a team around those 2 stars. Now, with KD possibly staying with the Warriors, the Knicks are not in position to contend. Irving would be better off in Brooklyn or LA. In Brooklyn, Kyrie could take hold of their young playoff team and push them to the next level. To me, this sounds like a Boston retread. Irving cannot succeed as a number one option. Kyrie is better off headed to LA to form a big three with Lebron James and Anthony Davis. This worked in the past; in Cleveland, Lebron, Kyrie and Kevin Love (in this case Davis) won a championship. Brooklyn looks like the favorite to land Kyrie, but I think LA is the better choice. Ride out Lebron’s last 3 seasons, win a ring or two, and re-enter free agency at age 29.
Possible: Nets, Knicks, Lakers
Verdict: Lakers, 2+1 max or near-max
5.) Kemba Walker
25.6 PPG, 5.9 APG, 3x All-Star, 1x All-NBA
The Hornets fans are starved for a legitimate playoff team, but owner Michael Jordan and GM Mitch Kupchak have failed to build around Walker in his 8 seasons. Walker has been an All-Star in each of the last 3 seasons. Walker enjoyed the playoffs 2 times in 8 years, playing only 7 total playoff games in his career. For reference, Ben Simmons played in more playoff games in his rookie year. Usually a star player has at least some chances for postseason heroics; with Walker, the team around him has simply been too bad. In 2018-2019, Kemba’s best teammate was either Jermey Lamb or Cody Zeller. That’s not exactly the bones of a playoff team.
One important part about Kemba’s decision is that he’s eligible for a Supermax but only if he stays in Charlotte, since he made an All-NBA team this year. That means if he left, for LA, Brooklyn, Indiana, or wherever, he would leave up to $50 million on the table. That might be worth it for Walker, who has sponsorship deals and other sources of income, but it’s hard to turn down that much money. The Lakers will target Kemba to try to build a big 3, if they miss on Kawhi and Kyrie, but Kemba should be focused on another situation: Indiana.
The Pacers employ the league’s toughest defense, lead by DPOY-candidate Myles Turner. The Pacers team defense can mask some of Walker’s individual defensive issues. Also, the Pacers have long been looking for a star to pair with Victor Oladipo, and Kemba’s game is complementary to Oladipo’s. Both can space the floor and both are good spot-up shooters. Think Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum in Portland, but better defensively. Still, although Indiana makes sense as a contender, I believe Walker should stay in Charlotte and sign a Supermax deal. Get paid now, and if they can’t build around you, request a trade later. You can contend for a championship into your early-mid 30s, but this is your last chance for the “big” payday.
Possible: Hornets, Lakers, Pacers
Verdict: Hornets, 5-year Supermax
6.) Al Horford
13.6 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 5x All-Star, 1x All-NBA, 1x All-Defense
Before the season, Al Horford figured into Boston’s long-term plan. They hoped to re-sign Kyrie Irving, trade for Anthony Davis, and pair Horford and Davis in the front court for years to come. Both are excellent defenders and can stretch the floor; it’s a match made in basketball heaven. Davis, however, made it clear that Boston was not his choice. Kyrie, a noted malcontent, looks like he’s heading out of Boston for good. And Horford, who planned on opting out anyway, is now on the way out too. The original plan was for Al to opt out of his contract, sign a 3-4 year deal that paid him less per year but more overall. That’s still Horford’s plan, but no longer in Boston. Horford is a great defensive big man, that can shoot 3s and pass out of the high post. Think Marc Gasol, but better shooting.
As a result, Horford will now test free agency and appears to be headed West in some capacity. The Lakers will eye him as a pair with Davis in their front court; the same plan Boston had but now in LA. Horford would probably want north of $25 million per year over 4 years, which is actually in LA’s budget as it is. Horford is likely their backup plan though, only if they strike out on Kawhi, Kyrie, and Kemba. Speaking of Kawhi, if the Clippers land him, they will try to pair Horford with Kawhi. The Clippers have a bunch of quality rotation players, and Horford can be dynamic in that front court with Montrezl Harrell. The Clippers would likely try to sign Kawhi immediately, on July 1st, and then target Horford in the aftermath.
Those 2 teams would have Horford as a 2nd choice though. One team that can go after Horford right away is Sacramento. The Kings have plenty of cap space, with Harrison Barnes opting out. They have a young, playoff caliber team, with Dearon Fox, Buddy Hield, and Marvin Bagley representing the nucleus. Horford could be the best version of himself in Sacramento; the veteran leader that isn’t the centerpiece of the offense. Think about Horford’s best season in Boston, which was 2017-2018. The offense ran through Kyrie and Jayson Tatum, and Horford was able to defend and space the floor without the burden of being the #1 scoring option. The Kings are the perfect fit in this regard, and maybe most importantly, can afford to overpay Horford slightly over what either LA team will offer.
Possible: Lakers, Clippers, Kings
Verdict: Kings, 4-years 100 million
7.) Khris Middleton
18.3 PPG, 6 RPG, 4.3 APG, 1x All-Star
The Bucks are coming off their most successful season in years, winning a league-high 60 games and reaching the Eastern Conference Finals. The Bucks have little cap room, and 3 important players hitting free agency. Brook Lopez, aka “Splash Mountain,” is due for a big payday after his resurgence. Malcom Brogdon, 6th man extraordinaire, is a restricted free agent. And most important of all, 2018-2019 All-Star Khris Middleton is set for a big payday. The Bucks can afford to keep everyone, but their number one priority should be to sign Middleton to a max contract.
The Bucks have Giannis Antetokuonmpo, who won league MVP. They have a good coach, Mike Budenholzer, who knows Middleton’s strengths better than anyone. And the East is wide open, with no Lebron in the conference and no clear number one team. The Bucks have to keep Middleton at all costs. Middleton was a first-time All-Star this season, and his 3-point shooting is a big reason. Middleton made 37.8% of his threes on 6 attempts per game, and those numbers should go up next year. The Bucks need shooters to space the floor for Giannis, and there’s not a better shooter on the market except for Klay Thompson, who isn’t leaving the Warriors. Middleton’s game complements Giannis in a way that most stars just can’t.
Still, a couple of teams will try to pry him away. The Mavericks, a free-agent starved destination, will offer him the max to play next to Rookie of the Year Luka Doncic. The Pacers will also go after him, seeing a fit for him next to Oladipo. The Bucks, however, have the leverage. Middleton has been there his whole career, is familiar with the city and with the coaching staff, and has grown as a player in that organization. It’s simple for Milwaukee too; there’s no better star available that they can afford. They were 2 wins away from an NBA Finals. It makes sense to run it back with the same cast of characters, and bet on Giannis improving. The first order of business is to sign Middleton to a max contract.
Possible: Bucks, Mavericks, Pacers
Verdict: Bucks, 4-year Max
8.) D’angelo Russell
21.1 PPG, 7 APG, 1x All-Star
Russell was a late addition to the All-Star team, making it only after Victor Oladipo went down with an injury. Still, there’s no question Russell proved himself to be a star caliber player. And at 23, Russell has the potential to grow into something more; something that older players like Jimmy Butler, Kemba Walker, and others don’t necessarily have. The Nets, propelled by Russell’s control of the offense, made it to the playoffs this season as the number 6-seed. There were times the Nets even figured into the 5th seed, and Russell was the biggest reason why. Teammates Caris Levert and Spencer Dinwiddie provided help on offense, but Russell was the engine that made the team work.
With the Nets in on Kyrie Irving though, Russell is in a difficult situation. The team that saw potential in him, and developed him, is now looking at another point guard. If the Nets get Kyrie, it makes Russell redundant. The Nets will not try to keep Russell if they get Kyrie, leaving the door wide open for Dlo to find a new team. A young All-Star that can create offense and shoot off the dribble? Teams will be lining up at the door to sign him. Russell is only a restricted free agent, so any contract he signs would be passed to the Nets, who could choose to match it. But if Kyrie is in Brooklyn, they won’t. The teams with reported interest are the Lakers and the Suns.
The Lakers will try to get Kawhi, Kyrie, or Kemba in that order. D’angelo is probably their 4th or 5th choice, and remember they already got rid of him 2 years ago. Can the fences be mended enough to get Russell back in LA? Maybe. The Suns will also try to sign Russell, with the hopes of pairing him with Devin Booker and creating a dynamic backcourt. The Suns have plenty of cap space, but I could also see the Celtics emerging as a dark horse candidate for Dlo. The Celtics need a point guard, and his age fits in well with their young team. Still, I think Brooklyn is making a mistake going after Kyrie; they have a younger player that has none of the personal issues in Russell. If the Nets let him walk, he should entertain a reunion in Los Angeles.
Possible: Nets, Lakers, Suns, Celtics
Verdict: Nets (or Lakers), 4-year Max
9.) Klay Thompson
21.5 PPG, 5x All-Star, 2x All-NBA, career 3P% of .419
In game 6 of the NBA Finals, Thompson suffered a torn ACL, that will sideline him at least until February of 2020. Still, Klay is an all-time great shooter, a capable defender, and plays his best basketball in the playoffs. Any team would be lucky to sign him, and before the ACL injury Klay was as durable as any star this side of Lebron James. Just about every team with cap space will try to pry Klay away from the Warriors, but that won’t be easy. His father has stated Klay wants to stay in the Bay Area, and breaking up the Splash Brothers just seems wrong on a fundamental level.
The Lakers have long been reported as a team that wants Klay to consider relocation. Klay is from the area, and his game fits in perfectly with Lebron. The Lakers are after just about everyone on this list, but Klay is not a priority for them. The Clippers are also a team that makes sense, being in the right area and having a good cast of role players in place already. The Clippers may target Klay if they land Kawhi, seeking to build a 2-man tandem of stars in Staples Center to rival James and Davis. Klay makes sense in so many places because his game is complementary to your typical “star” players. Klay doesn’t need the ball to create offense, and he’s not ball dominant at all. He works best coming off screens and spotting up in the corner, while also playing shutdown defense.
With KD’s future in limbo, and Draymond Green set to test free agency next summer, it’s more important now than ever for Golden State to secure the future of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. They are the founding members of the Warriors mini-dynasty, and both should remain in the Bay for the duration of their careers. Steph is already signed long-term, it’s time for Klay to re-up and make Golden State fun again. The Warriors are uniquely suited to wait out his injury as well; the Warriors aren’t in do-or-die mode this year, and can afford a long rehab for Klay’s knee. They can offer the most money, and he fits in best in Golden State.
Possible: Warriors, Lakers, Clippers
Verdict: Warriors, 3+1 Max
10.) Nikola Vucevic
20.8 PPG, 12 RPG, 1x All-Star
Not many remember that Vucevic was in the Dwight Howard to LA trade in 2012, but it turns out he’s been the best player from that trade. After years of consistent double-double production in Orlando, Vucevic finally made an All-Star team in 2019. The center position is out of style in today’s NBA; teams get by with Clint Capela or Kevan Looney types that run the floor and don’t create offense in the low post. Vucevic makes a living earning down in the post though, and his game is zigging while the league is zagging.
The Magic have every reason to keep Vucevic long term, as they are the ones that developed him. He’s comfortable in Orlando, never making waves and sticking with their process through some bad years. The Magic were rewarded with a playoff appearance and a Vucevic All-Star selection, and it would be foolish to throw that away. The Magic may be prepared to do just that though. Orlando drafted Mo Bamba 5th overall last year, and appear ready to let him assume the starting role if they lose Vucevic. It just seems wrong to me that Orlando was willing to stick with Vucevic for so many years, then as soon as he’s due to be paid they’re suddenly not interested.
The Knicks may offer Vucevic a max contract if they strike out on KD, Kemba, and Kyrie. There is precedent for this; in 2016, they missed out on the big names and settled for a “2nd tier” player. Vucevic is better than Joakim Noah though, and is worth a full max contract in the right situation. That’s why I like the Celtics in this spot. As I mentioned earlier, Boston is losing Al Horford and needs a true center. Vucevic fills a role, and he’s young enough to line up with the timeline of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Magic may want to keep Vucevic, but the Celtics are probably the best fit. They have enough to pay him, and they have a team that somewhat fits his gritty play-style.
Possible: Magic, Knicks, Celtics
Verdict: Celtics, 4-year Max
As a reminder, this is my interpretation of the best situation for each player. In some cases, like Kyrie to the Nets, they may choose a situation that isn’t the most favorable. In other cases, like with Kemba in Charlotte, he may just decide to take the money and force a trade later if he’s unhappy.
Some of these guys will do what they should. Most will just take as much cash as possible. In some cases, with Durant, Leonard, Irving, and Thompson, they’ll choose fit over money because they’ll get the max either way. Other guys like Middleton, Vucevic, and Horford will seek the most money possible, because their resumes aren’t as decorated.
The thing that will really swing this class is the top 3-4 guys. If they team up, in Brooklyn or LA for example, we have a brand new title favorite. We’ll know more as soon as that July 1st date rolls around, but until then keep speculating, and remember: believe every report you see, as long as they cite their “sources.”
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