By: Nick LaPorte, 6/26/2019
The Rockets plan to pursue 76ers guard/forward Jimmy Butler in free agency, according to ESPN.
With NBA Free Agency starting on July 1st in the afternoon, expect the rumor mill to pick up between now and the end of the week. It’s hard to know who to trust when a report comes out. For example, your buddy Matt could tweet out “sources tell me Kevin Durant is considering the Wizards.” Well, as happy as that would make Wizards fans, we all know in that case your buddy Matt is full of it.
One reporter that can be trusted however, is Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN. Wojnarowski has built his reputation as the best man for breaking news on NBA Twitter, and when Woj reports something, it’s almost always 100% accurate. He doesn’t appear to have direct sources with Lebron James, for example, but 99/100 times Woj’s reports have truth to them. That’s why we should take this report about Jimmy Butler seriously, because Woj doesn’t report things just to blow smoke. He reports things because they’re true.
Jimmy Butler makes sense in Houston, which I wrote about here. But the other question is how do the pieces make sense in order for Houston to execute this sign-and-trade. For the Rockets, they will lose at least 2 of their important players PJ Tucker, Eric Gordon, and Clint Capela. Tucker is a defensive star, with the size and strength to guard forwards but the speed to stay in front of guards. Tucker is the absolute zenith of the prototypical 3-and-D wing, and is an asset on any playoff team. Gordon is similar in his skillset as primarily a 3-point shooter, and his defense looked more than passable in the postseason. Gordon has excelled in the Houston offense, hitting threes and being a secondary ball handler. Gordon is another player that can help a playoff team.
The most curious of the three is Clint Capela. The Rockets went over the cap to sign Capela to a 5-year deal last summer, betting on incremental improvements from Capela offensively. As a 4th option at best, Capela mainly just screened for James Harden and was the “oop” part of James Harden’s alley-oop. Capela spent the first half of this season injured, and when he came back he looked as good as ever. But in the playoffs, Capela spent a lot of minutes on the bench, unable to play against a team like the Warriors. To pay someone $15 million per season is a large sum of money. When the playoffs roll around you have to be able to trust him to play. The Rockets, unfortunately, couldn’t.
In a sign-and-trade, the 76ers wouldn’t mind either Tucker or Gordon, as both could be part of their playoff rotation right away. Tucker can start next to Embiid, and would anchor a fearsome defensive trio with Ben Simmons. Gordon, a bigger guard, could be a secondary ball handler for Ben Simmons, guard point guards, and be a knockdown 3-point shooter. Neither are as good as Butler, so Philly will still be upset if Butler wants this trade to go through, but to get either of those players in a sign-and-trade isn’t bad. Capela would have to be moved to a different team though, because the 76ers can’t afford $15 million a year for a backup to Embiid. The Rockets could either trade Capela separately and acquire an asset to use in the Butler sign-and-trade, or let the 76ers flip Capela on their own.
Woj is reporting that the 76ers cover first round picks in a potential sign-and-trade. The problem is the Rockets will have a hard time acquiring valuable first-rounders for their 3 players. Houston is negotiating from a position of weakness, and teams know that. Why should Boston, for example, give up the Grizzlies 2020 pick they own to get Capela when the Celtics could just wait out Butler’s decision and sign someone else? The problem for Houston is none of the players they are offering have true value of a first-rounder, the way someone like Butler does.
For Houston, acquiring Butler will be a headache and a half. It’s worth it, because it gives them another star player next to James Harden and Chris Paul. But it’s going to be difficult. Philadelphia can end this idea in its infancy if they offer Butler the 5-year max contract. Butler could turn it down and walk anyway, but I doubt he would. He’s going to be in his mid 30s when his next contract ends; does he really want to leave $50 million on the table? I don’t think so.
Houston should still be pursuing cap flexibility even if Butler doesn’t come, since they have almost no ways to make their team better. If you have to move Capela, Gordon, and Tucker to turn that into other assets, so be it. Rockets GM Daryl Morey is handcuffed by Chris Paul’s contract, and his near $40 million per season deal takes up a ridiculous amount of the cap. In this case, Morey has to be creative. Trying to get Butler is one way; and if it works out, Houston may have opened their title window for another couple seasons.
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