By: Nick LaPorte, 6/29/2019
I’m going to start this off by saying I like Castellanos for more reasons than the shared first-name. I also want to give credit to Jake, my Stats on Deck co-host, who first brought Castellanos’ trade value to my attention. With so many teams in contention for a playoff spot, Tigers’ OF Nicholas Castellanos is a prime target because of the skillset he brings. Castellanos can play LF, RF, 3B, and 1B. He’s a power hitter, one that can slot right into the middle of any lineup. And most importantly, he’s a free agent after this season.
The Tigers, I’m sorry to say, are not in contention this year. The Tigers are in last place in the AL Central, roughly 25 games behind division-leading Minnesota. They are also 17.5 back from the 2nd Wild Card spot. We’ve seen some crazy runs in the 2nd half, but it’s safe to say the Tigers don’t figure into the postseason conversation. As a result, according to Jon Morosi, everyone is available at the deadline. The best Detroit player available is Castellanos, not closer Shane Greene. Also, the Tigers reportedly aren’t interested in extending Castellanos past this year, according to MLB Trade Rumors. Castellanos himself believes he will he traded by the July 31st deadline. This is nothing new for Detroit.
We saw the Tigers do this with JD Martinez in 2017. They fell out of contention, and traded Martinez to the Diamondbacks for 3 prospects. Castellanos is a similar hitter to Martinez, although to be fair Martinez even back then was on another level. Still, Castellanos can provide good value for the right team. With 0.7 WAR in 2019, Castellanos doesn’t look like an All-Star. But his .273 AVG is solid, and he’s hit 20 homers or more in each of the last 2 seasons. He never figures into the All-Star conversation the way Martinez did in Detroit, but Castellanos is a competent hitter, with defensive versatility, and playoff experience. Since 2016, his breakout year, he’s hitting .282 with a 118 wRC+, which suggest he’s above average compared to others in the outfield.
The question is: which team should trade for Castellanos? Here I’ll offer 3 potential landing spots for the veteran slugger.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
As recently as December, the Dodgers reportedly had interest in Castellanos. It’s not like the Dodgers need him to get to the playoffs, as LA’s 56-27 record leads all of baseball. But Castellanos could be another bat when they do play October baseball. The Dodgers came up short in the past 2 World Series’, and part of the reason was the lack of consistent offensive output. The Dodgers have cruised in the regular season, as they are in the top-5 in hits, average, on-base percentage, and home runs. But come October, the Dodgers’ key batters have come up short.
Castellanos could help in that respect, with his ability to hit for average in recent years suggesting he may be more reliable in a playoff game than say, Kike Hernandez lest year. It’s not a perfect fit, especially since Cody Bellinger has broken out as an MVP in the outfield. With Alex Verdugo, Joc Pederson, and Bellinger all taking significant time in the outfield, there may not be enough room for Castellanos. At the right price, it makes sense. But the Dodgers can get by without trading for him.
2. Atlanta Braves
The Braves are in first-place in the NL East, and have done so even with the injury to starting center-fielder Ender Inciarte. 2018 Rookie of the Year Ronald Acuna Jr. has slid over to CF, and has been so good he was voted to be a starter in the All-Star Game. The Braves regularly have Nick Markakis in RF, a position in which he is comfortable and made the All-Star team last year. Markakis has been consistent, and shouldn’t lose playing time. The question mark is Austin Riley, the rookie LF that has hit 12 home runs in 40 games.
As of June 10, Inciarte’s return is not imminent according to CBS. That means the Braves will trot out Riley in LF for the time being, and it has worked wonders. His power numbers are off the charts, and the Braves have been comfortable enough with his defense to let him start games. But Castellanos could still fit in there. The Braves had interest in the off-season, according to Morosi. Although they didn’t work out a deal, Castellanos should still be on their radar. He’s an insurance policy if Inciarte can’t get healthy and Austin Riley’s magical start ever turns into a slump.
3. Washington Nationals
This was suggested to me by Jake, and I have to say I’ve grown fond of the idea of Castellanos in a Nats Jersey. The Nationals currently use Adam Eaton as their every-day RF, and I can tell you first-hand that Eaton is a frustrating player. He doesn’t hit for a high average, at only .273. His power numbers are weak for a RF, totaling just 6 home runs this year and never more than 14. His defense, his main selling point in his Chicago days, has declined since coming to DC. All in all, Castellanos is an upgrade.
This trade would be more of a slam dunk if Castellanos was having a better season. Like I mentioned, his 0.7 WAR isn’t amazing. It’s in the range of Eaton’s, at 0.8, but I have to think Castellanos would benefit from a change of scenery. In DC, there would be protection in the lineup in Juan Soto and probable All-Star Anthony Rendon. Castellanos doesn’t have that kind of protection in Detroit. All told, Castellanos is better at just about every part of the game than Adam Eaton, even if only marginally.
Verdict: Nationals
The Nats sit 1 game over .500, and are getting a good look at Castellanos this weekend. If the Nationals are buyers at the deadline, and I believe they will be, they should target Castellanos. It’s the kind of low-risk, high-reward trade GM Mike Rizzo is famous for. And Castellanos may be that missing bat that vaults them back into the postseason. And if you can get Shane Greene in a package deal? As actor Carl Weathers would say, “baby we got a stew going.”
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