By: Nick LaPorte, 7/1/2019
NBA Free Agency kicked off in dramatic fashion yesterday, with a slew of signings flying in on Woj’s twitter feed starting at 6pm EST. It didn’t take long for the entire NBA to be turned on its head; Kyrie Irving signed with the Nets and Kevin Durant soon followed. Milwaukee lost Malcom Brogdon, but retained Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez. The Warriors came out of nowhere to grab D’angelo Russell in a sign-and-trade. And that’s just the tip of the free agency iceberg. For what it’s worth, at the time of writing this, Kawhi Leonard has not made a decision. In this post I’ll give my thoughts on the winners & losers of day one.
Winners
Brooklyn Nets
In the biggest free agency undertaking this league has seen since Miami’s Big Three, the Nets have signed Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. In my opinion, the Nets are walking away with 2 of the top 3 free agents, while losing Russell, who I had at the end of my top 10. In other words; the Nets made a massive improvement. After finishing 6th in the Eastern Conference, the Nets have set themselves up to be contenders in the coming years, pairing two of the biggest stars in the league on an already solid playoff team. In fact, Brooklyn might have even grabbed these stars for a bargain, as both took less than the max to leave room for their friend, Deandre Jordan.
Jordan will join their team, and Jordan is not the player he once was. But he can still grab rebounds and protect the paint. Young guards Caris Levert and Spencer Dinwiddie are still under contract, coach Kenny Atkinson is still employed, and the Nets window just flew wide open. With Durant out for the 2019-2020 season, the Nets will have to be patient. As of now, with Durant sidelined, the Nets are probably somewhere in the 3-6 range still. But once KD is back; the Nets will be favorites in the East.
Indiana Pacers
Already a playoff team without Victor Oladipo, the Pacers just got a lot better. Restricted free-agent Malcom Brogdon agreed to a 4-year, $85 million contract. Even though this is probably an overpay at this point, the Pacers desperately needed a point guard to pair with Oladipo. Previously I had written they could target Chris Paul or Kemba Walker, but both of those options make $34 million per year or more. Brogdon is younger, a better team defender, and complements Oladipo better. Not many may know this, but Brogdon is one of the few NBA players in the vaunted “50-40-90” club, players that shoot 50% from the floor, 40% from three, and 90% from the free throw line. Here are the other members of that list: Steve Nash, Steph Curry, Larry Bird, Kevin Durant, Dirk Nowitzki, Mark Price, and Reggie Miller. Food for thought. The Pacers have greatly improved their team with additions of TJ Warren, Jeremy Lamb, and now Brogdon.
Utah Jazz
It’s not hyperbole to say the Jazz have emerged as title contenders. Their core already includes DPOY Rudy Gobert and young scoring guard Donovan Mitchell. After adding Mike Conley Jr. already, the Jazz continued to improve their team. Veteran big man Ed Davis and forward Bojan Bogdanovic now round out the Jazz rotation. Davis is a decent backup big, who can provide minutes off the bench to keep Gobert healthy. Bogdanovic, on the other hand, may be a bargain. After Oladipo went down, Bogdanovic became the number one option in Indiana and flourished. With the help of Bogdanovic’s three-point shooting, the Pacers held on to their 5-seed. Now, as a third option, Bogdanovic can really open up his game. And for the price, 4 years at $73 million, I think this is a steal. The 76ers are paying Tobias Harris almost $100 million more, and in some ways, Bogdanovic is a better complimentary player.
Losers
New York Knicks
There are a lot of Knicks fans that have seen their team waste away into nothingness under James Dolan’s ownership. Things looked positive this year, with a top pick on the way and rumors of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving joining in the summer. Well, the 2 superstars chose nearby Brooklyn, and instead of Zion Williamson the Knicks drafted RJ Barrett. All in all, the Knicks are in the same place they have been for years. Ever since the Carmelo years, the Knicks have been pining after free agents like LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and others, missing out on every single one.
To make matters worse, the Knicks traded Kristaps Porzingis to the Mavericks to open up cap space. With that cap space, the Knicks have signed underwhelming role players like Julius Randle, Bobby Portis, and Taj Gibson. No contract is as bad as the Joakim Noah 2016 contract the Knicks inked, but this grade of “losers” is not about what they did with their cap space, but what they failed to do. Unless they pull off a miracle and get Kawhi Leonard, this is an unmitigated disaster in New York.
Charlotte Hornets
After letting All-NBA guard Kemba Walker leave for Boston, the Hornets already lost this offseason. They should have traded Walker for assets at the deadline, and instead lose their franchise player for nothing. Charlotte’s answer to this was to sign backup point guard Terry Rozier to a 3-year, $58 million deal. Ask Boston fans which team got the better player. And would you rather pay Kemba Walker $34 million per season, or Terry Rozier $20 million per year? It’s a waste of their already limited cap space, and Rozier is a flawed player. As a point guard that plays poor defense, scores inefficiently, and struggles to find the open man, the Hornets have committed to staying in NBA Hell. Their only move now is to trade for Andrew Wiggins, and take on draft picks, which I wrote about here.
Golden State Warriors
The Durant signing already made the Warriors weaker, but GM Bob Myers seems to be directionless in free agency so far. Klay Thompson and the Warriors seem to be in agreement to a 5-year max. I would count that part of the Warriors plan as a win. Thompson is one of the best shooters in history, plays All-Defense level defense on the wing, and meshes with Curry better than any other star. Speaking of meshing well with Curry’s game, Myers executed a sign-and-trade for D’angelo Russell, and I can’t help but think this makes no sense.
Russell, though, was named an All-Star in 2019, and led the charge into the playoffs for the Nets. But his game has weaknesses, and they are glaring. Russell is a bad defender, and pairing him with Curry makes the Warriors guards one of the worst defensive duos in basketball. When Thompson comes back, he will help open up the floor, but Russell needs the ball in his hands to succeed. Russell is inefficent already, and shoots lower than 40% from three, which means one of two things. Either Curry is relegated to off-ball duty, where he impresses but impacts the game less. Or, the Warriors will find a way to put all three guards on the floor. It can happen, but I don’t see how Russell fits into their team. Maybe most importantly, the Warriors now lose Andre Iguodala, Kevan Looney, and 3 first-round picks.
All in all, free agency has opened up the league in a way we have not seen for the last ten seasons. As of now, no one team can claim they are the favorite. The 76ers look good in the East, but they have weaknesses. Milwaukee got worse overall, and teams like Indiana, Boston, Brooklyn, and others are viable options. In the West, as many as 13 of the 15 teams have some argument to make the playoffs, excluding the Suns and Grizzlies. The last domino to fall will be Kawhi Leonard. If he stays in Toronto, they will be favorites but certainly beatable. If Leonard suits up with the the Clippers, they are one among many contenders out West. And if Leonard joins up with LeBron James and Anthony Davis?
Say hello to the Lakers Superteam, 2019-2020 NBA Champions.
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