By: Nick LaPorte, 7/2/2019
NBA Free Agency officially began at 6pm EST on Sunday, and we saw major moves within the first 24 hours. Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are in Brooklyn, Jimmy Butler headed to South Beach, and the Warriors rebounded by trading for D’angelo Russell. For more NBA Free Agency thoughts, take a look at my winners and losers over here. With the major free agents already signed, and the role players being snatched up quickly, the league waits for Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard to make his decision. According to Woj, the 2-time champion has narrowed his list down to three teams: the Raptors, the Clippers, and the Lakers.
Some have reported that the Lakers are the favorites right now, like former NBA player Kendrick Perkins. Chris Broussard, famous for breaking LeBron’s “Decision” in 2010, has told us Kawhi is a Laker in every way but ink and paper. But let’s be fair, Broussard is notorious for having bad sources; he once falsely reported Dwight Howard was signing in LA when Howard was on his way to Houston. The bottom line is this; Kawhi’s new team will tell us a lot about the future of the NBA. Here I’ll give a quick breakdown of what to expect in each scenario regarding Leonard.
Toronto Raptors
While it’s true Kawhi never wanted to be traded to Toronto, the team has made a convincing case to keep the Board Man. The Raptors won the NBA Finals, and if nothing else, proved to Leonard that he could contend for championships as the best player. While Leonard won in San Antonio in 2014, there were questions as to whether he could win outside the Spurs system. Leonard, healthy for the first time since 2017, carried the Raptors on his back through four rounds of competitive playoff basketball. The Warriors were injured, but Kawhi was a man possessed in the playoffs. If we learned one thing, it’s that Leonard is unquestionably one of the best players in the NBA.
Still, Toronto is not the best situation for him long-term. Veterans Marc Gasol and Kyle Lowry are aging, and free-agents after this coming season. Pascal Siakam showed star potential, but it may take him some time to be truly one of the game’s best players. If Leonard feels connected to this group of players, he should consider a 1+1 contract to stay in Toronto. This would give Kawhi a chance to defend his championship with teammates that fit him well, and then become a free agent next summer when there will be more options and less good players available.
Los Angeles Clippers
It’s no secret that the Clippers have been courting Leonard for months, scouting him at games and showing up to “many” Raptors games. The move makes perfect sense for the Clippers; add one of the league’s impact players to a deep, competitive team in a wide open Western Conference. If Leonard chooses to suit up there, the Clippers could be as strong as any team at the top of the West. The Warriors look vulnerable, and Kawhi’s decision could send ripples that affect the Lakers adversely. Not only would Leonard make the Clippers better, but he would double down by making the Lakers worse. Re-signing Patrick Beverley was a move that indicates the Clippers feel they have a chance to land Leonard.
Since the Clippers are the proverbial “other LA” team, Kawhi could get the benefit of playing close to his home in San Diego, while ignoring the bright lights that fall on the Lakers. Knowing what we know about Leonard, which is admittedly not very much, publicity matters very little to the superstar. The Clippers have a hard-nosed coach in Doc Rivers, a man that has won a championship playing the kind of tough, defensive game in which Leonard thrives. Rotation pieces like Landry Shamet, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Beverley, and Montrezl Harrell are all good complements to Leonard’s game. Before the start of free agency, the Clippers seemed like the team that would pry Kawhi away from the North, but that may not be true any longer.
Los Angeles Lakers
When LeBron James signed with the Lakers, the team they built around him was a poor basketball team. Veterans Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson, and Javale McGee made no sense next to LeBron, who thrives with shooters. The Lakers signed those veterans to one-year deals though, in preparation for creating maximum salary space for this summer. James now has All-NBA big man Anthony Davis in tow, and room to sign a max contract at about $32 million. The Lakers have gone all in to get Leonard, letting good role players sign with other teams with the hopes of using all that space to complete a “Big 3.”
With Leonard, the Lakers would be prohibitive favorites. Pairing 3 of the 6 or 7 best players in the NBA is something we haven’t seen since the Celtics in the 1960s. While this move may seem similar to Kevin Durant joining the 73-win Warriors 3 summers ago, it’s actually closer to Miami’s original “Big 3” teaming up in 2010. The Lakers, with Kawhi, would have only 4 players under contract: Leonard, James, Davis, and Kyle Kuzma. The roster would have to be filled with minimum-contract players, since signing Kawhi would put them at the ceiling of the salary cap. This is what happened in Miami 9 years ago; James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh were surrounded by a team of mediocre players. That year, if you recall, the Heat lost the Finals.
If Leonard joins the Lakers, it would be like that. Although the Lakers would be favorites to win it all, there would still be a chance for any of the other contenders to take advantage of LA’s poor depth. For what it’s worth, I do like the prospect of LeBron winning more championships, but for the sake of parity in the NBA, Kawhi Leonard should choose somewhere else.
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