By: Nick LaPorte, 7/8/2019
The Dodgers and Braves lead their divisions by 6 games or more, and the Cubs hold a narrow 1/2 game margin over Milwaukee. There are 7 teams in the mix for the 2 NL Wild Card spots: the Nationals, the Phillies, the Brewers, the Diamondbacks, the Padres, the Cardinals, and the Rockies. In this post, I’ll tell you what position each Wild Card contender needs to improve to make a playoff push.
1. Washington Nationals (47-42, 1st WC, +0.5 GB)
About a month ago, the Nationals fell to 19-31 and looked like they were out of the race entirely. Since then, the Nationals have won 28/38 games and climbed right back into the playoff discussion. All-Stars Anthony Rendon and Max Scherzer have led the way, with Rendon’s absurd 3.3 WAR first half. Scherzer has been dominant, accumulating 5.5 WAR already this season which is 1.5 WAR higher than 2nd-place Lance Lynn; for reference, Scherzer’s career high is 7.4 WAR. The Nationals have leaned on their starting pitching, with veterans Stephen Strasburg (2nd in the NL in K’s) and Patrick Corbin carrying the load night to night. The offense, on the backs of Rendon and 20-year old phenom Juan Soto, has gotten better of late but still lacks a little punch in the middle of the order.
The glaring issue for the Nationals, however, has predictably been the bullpen. Sean Doolittle, the Nationals’ closer, has been pitching at an All-Star caliber pace, but beyond him there are really no real solutions to setup the 9th inning. Young pitchers like Tanner Rainey and Wander Suero have traded 8th inning roles, and both still look green. Veteran Fernando Rodney, who signed 2 weeks ago, has been a sneaky good addition in 6 appaerances. The Nationals own the 2nd highest WAR of any staff in the NL, but the bullpen has dragged them down. The Nationals bullpen owns a 6.28 ERA, worst in the NL. If the Nationals want to make the postseason, they need to add 1-2 real late-inning options to support Sean Doolittle.
Verdict: bullpen help
2. Philadelphia Phillies (47-43, 2nd WC)
A lot can change in the span of a couple weeks in Major League Baseball. On June 9th, the Phillies still led the NL East, as they have since late April. Suddenly, the injuries caught up to the Phillies and the Braves jumped ahead of them. The Phillies, who led the Nationals by 8 games just 2 weeks ago, are narrowly hanging on in the win-column, and have fallen to 3rd place in the NL East. An injury to veteran Andrew McCutchen and a suspension to Odubel Herrera has left the Phillies with almost no talent left in their outfield. To make matters worse, their $300 million man, Bryce Harper, has underwhelmed in the first year of his contract. An MVP can erase a lot of concerns; just ask the Dodgers and Cody Bellinger. But since Harper has struggled at times, the Phillies desperately need another outfielder.
To be fair, the Phillies recognized this problem and added veteran Jay Bruce to their lineup. With 7 homers and 0.5 WAR in just 21 games, Bruce may be part of the answer. However, since Bruce’s 4.0 WAR in 2013, he’s totaled more than 1.0 WAR just one time. It’s difficult to rest the hopes of your season on a potentially replacement-level player, especially considering Bruce is due for a major regression. To put this into perspective, McCutchen, who hasn’t played since June 3rd, is 6th on the team in WAR. Herrera, who is out until at least July, has been a net negative for the Phillies in 2019. If the Phillies have any designs on a playoff appearance for the first time since 2011, they need to bolster their outfield.
Verdict: outfielder, preferably CF
3. Milwaukee Brewers (47-44, 0.5 GB)
After winning the NL Central last year, the Brewers returned roughly the same team and have enjoyed similar success. Christian Yelich, the reigning MVP, is making his case for a repeat. Mike Moustakas has statistically been among the best 2B in the NL. Closer Josh Hader, a breakout star from last year, is on pace to surpass his 2.7 WAR from last year. The Brewers were unconventional in the playoffs last year, relying on their bullpen more than ever. Their so-called “ace,” Jhoulys Chacin, was the only starter they trusted. The Brewers opted to stand pat, re-sign veterans like Gio Gonzalez, and run it back with their rotation as is. The Brewers are 8th in the NL in ERA, but much of that is inflated because of how good their bullpen has been.
For the Brewers to take their division, or hold on to a Wild Card spot, they need to add another starting pitcher. To their credit, their investment in Brandon Woodruff has paid off brilliantly. Woodruff has accumulated 3.1 WAR, while totaling an ERA north of 4. To be fair, Woodruff’s FIP of 3.06 suggests he is due for some positive regression. The Brewers pitchers have allowed the 5th most home runs in the NL, and they are tied for 3rd-most walks allowed. To put it simply; the Brewers have to make an addition to their starting rotation before the July 31st deadline. To make matters worse, only Woodruff, Chacin, and Zach Davies have started 15+ games. At the very least they need to add depth, like they did last year with Gonzalez. If they wait too long, they may fall out of the race entirely.
Verdict: decent starting pitcher
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (46-45, 1.5 GB)
When the Diaomdbacks traded All-Star Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals in the offseason, I assumed they were out of the playoff picture for the 2019 season. That may have been a safe assumption if not for breakout star Ketel Marte, the All-Star CF/2B in Arizona. Marte’s 3.8 WAR is 4th in baseball, and he’s emerged as a star in the wake of Goldschmidt’s departure. For what it’s worth, Goldschmidt is only at 1.0 WAR on the season, whereas his replacement Christian Walker is outperforming him with 1.5 WAR. The Diamondbacks are in this race because of their pitching staff, however, which is 6th in the NL in both starters and relievers ERA. With Zack Greinke leading a staff that includes Robbie Ray, Merrill Kelly, and Luke Weaver, Arizona is pitching well enough to let Marte, Walker, and the other misfit Diamondbacks emerge as a serious Wild Card threat.
The position that has given Arizona trouble this season is RF, a position that Adam Jones has played for the majority of his 79 games. Jones, one of the game’s All-Stars in years past, is simply past the point where he can be an effective starter. With 0.0 WAR, Jones is by far the weak link in the Diamondbacks lineup. While there aren’t many “star” players on the team, nearly every position has yielded a season of 1.0 WAR or better. The lone exception is RF, and it may be one reason why the Diamondbacks can’t seem to break through. A couple seasons ago, Arizona traded for JD Martinez and played him in RF in their pursuit of a playoff berth. Arizona ultimately failed to make the playoffs, but they are going to have to make a similar move. If Adam Jones starts the majority of the second half, Arizona will once again fall short of a Wild Card spot.
Verdict: quality RF bat
5. San Diego Padres (45-45, 2 GB)
After signing Manny Machado to a $300 million deal in the spring, the Padres set their eyes on contending for the playoffs in the years to come. Their window may have opened early though, and much of that is thanks to rookie Fernando Tatis Jr. After entering their rebuild, the Padres had their eyes on the ealy 2020s as a reasonable timeline for their farm system to make it to the majors and start producing on a regular basis. The Padres signed veterans Eric Hosmer and Machado with the hope that it would speed the rebuild along and allow their team to be a good mixture of established veterans and exciting young players. Tatis Jr. is the first of many highly-rated prospects to make it out of the Padres’ farm system, and he has exploded on the scene in his first year.
On the year, Tatis Jr. is 2nd among rookies with 2.8 WAR, trailing only Mets slugger Pete Alonso (3.6). In fact, it’s unfair to judge Tatis only against rookies; he has been the 4th most valuable shortstop in the entire NL. His 155 wRC+ is elite, and this means the Padres may have a home-grown budding superstar. After so many seasons in the past where the Padres couldn’t buy hits, that’s been their strength this year. In fact, their pitching staff is what holds them back from truly contending for the playoffs. San Diego starters are 11th in the NL in ERA, at 4.46. To make matters worse, the Padres bullpen holds an ERA of 4.97, 8th worst in the NL. The Padres can stay in any ball game with their ability to score runs; the problem that needs to be addressed is the pitching staff. The Padres would do well to add 1-2 pitchers to both their rotation and their bullpen. Otherwise, San Diego will fall out of the Wild Card race and face another disappointing season.
Verdict: pitching staff upgrade: starters and relievers
6. St. Louis Cardinals (44-44, 2 GB)
Last season the Cardinals stayed in the Wild Card race until the very last series of the season, and this year they have been in the thick of things since Opening Day. To be fair, every team in the NL Central has remained relevant. It’s the only division with all five teams at 40+ wins. The Cardinals are still very much alive in the race, not only for the Wild Card but also the NL Central. Before the season, the Cardinals were a popular pick to upset the hype of the Cubs and Brewers and take back the division crown, something they haven’t done in years. The addition of Paul Goldschmidt made the Cardinals look even better on paper; they added an All-Star to a near playoff team that was one of the best in baseball in the 2nd half.
Unfortunately for the Cardinals, this season has been a mixture of highs and lows. The Brewers and Cubs sit atop the NL Central, but as I mentioned earlier the Cardinals have stayed in position. St. Louis owns the 4th best bullpen and the 6th best rotation in the NL by ERA, which is a good sign. The hitters have been the problem for the Cardinals, sitting at 10th in the NL in WAR and 11th in wRC+. Besides the disappointing season from Goldschmidt, the Cardinals have dealt with a massive regression from Matt Carpenter. This has been a disaster season for Carpenter, who is on pace for his lowest WAR in a season in his career. Paul DeJong, their SS, has been the saving grace for the Cardinals offense. The position the Cardinals really need to address is catcher however; future Hall-of-Famer Yadier Molina has been horrible, with -0.1 WAR. The Cardinals won’t replace him out of respect, but Molina has been a detriment to the offense in 2019.
Verdict: a big bat anywhere, and possibly a catcher
7. Colorado Rockies (44-45, 2.5 GB)
After a disastrous start to the season, the Rockies have fought their way back into the playoff picture. The Rockies sat at 13-17 at the end of April, and have since fought back into the playoff conversation, with their bats keeping them alive. That feeling started to fade though when Colorado sleepwalked into the break, losing 6 in a row. As always, the Rockies are at the top of the NL in hitting. Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story have been repeating their All-Star campaigns from 2018, and David Dahl has been a key bat in their lineup, with 1.6 WAR and counting. Predictably, the thing holding the Rockies back is their pitching. Colorado’s staff is last in the NL in ERA.
Starting pitchers German Marquez and Jon Gray have pitched well, and Antonio Senzatela has provided the Rockies with a competent third member of their rotation. The problem is the bullpen, and it hasn’t just been one pitcher. Closer Wade Davis, a World Series champion and 3 time All-Star, has been an unmitigated disaster. In 2019, Davis carries a 6.00 ERA in 24 innings, with 11 saves in 13 tries and a 1-3 record. Scott Oberg has been their saving grace, with a 1.99 ERA and 1.0 WAR. Whether it’s another quality starting pitcher, or a true closer, the Rockies need help on their pitching staff.
Verdict: relief pitching
Notes: This doesn’t rule out a strong second half from the Pirates or the Reds, who are also within striking distance. The entire NL Central as I mentioned is close, within 6-8 games separating 1st and last places.
All advanced statistics used (WAR, wRC+, etc.) are accurate at the time of the All-Star Break in 2019.
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