By: Nick LaPorte, 7/11/2019
The MLB All-Star Game on Fox happened on Tuesday, and the game was mostly good. There was a late home run, a near blown-save, and Cleveland’s Shane Bieber won the MVP award in his home ballpark. It wasn’t the most memorable event, but it did bring one of the game’s most intense questions front and center: Who will win the NL MVP?
Cody Bellinger of the Dodgers and Christian Yelich of the Brewers are the two front runners; each has built an impressive case in the first half of 2019. The MLB has started to realize it has two budding stars, and produced some content to bring some attention to the semi-rivalry. Baseball showed us the “Belli vs. Yelli” video, in which the two stars play a game of M-V-P, loosely based on the basketball game H-O-R-S-E. This video may be simple, but it proves the NL MVP race is maybe the most exciting 2nd half storyline.
In a season where big-contract guys like Manny Machado and Bryce Harper have failed to live up to expectations, the Dodgers’ RF has finally taken the leap. Bellinger has blossomed into a true superstar, slashing .336 with 30 home runs and 71 RBIs. Yelich, the reigning MVP, has taken the next step as well. After hitting .326 with 36 homers last year, Yelich has improved to .329 with 31 home runs… in only 82 games, as opposed to his 147 games last year. Without a doubt, the two superstar RFs are leading the way.
Last year, the AL had the most interesting race. Mookie Betts, of the Red Sox, was neck and neck with LA’s Mike Trout in WAR all season. In the end, Betts finished higher in WAR, led the league in batting average, and was the best player on the best team in baseball. The team record seemed to be the delineating factor for voters; while Betts and Trout were equally amazing, Betts’ team went to the playoffs and Trout’s did not. This isn’t always the case, such as in 2016 when both players were equally great but Trout got the nod even though his team missed October baseball. But team record matters.
The National League MVP last year, as I mentioned, went to Yelich. Yelich’s 7.6 WAR were by far the best of a position player in the NL, and his Brewers won the top overall seed in the playoffs. This season, the competition from Bellinger has made the race much closer. Yelich already sits at 5.0 WAR, which gives him a pace in the neighborhood of 9 WAR. Bellinger has been even better, totaling 5.7 WAR to strike within Trout’s 6.2. Yelich and Bellinger are basically dead even, but voters will not settle for a co-MVP.
As I mentioned earlier, in 2018 the AL and NL MVPs were the best player on the best team. This season, Trout is running away with the AL award. But Bellinger may be the one to dethrone Yelich in the NL if his team keeps winning at this pace. The Dodgers have a record of 60-32, which is the best in baseball. The Brewers, on the other hand, are fighting tooth and nail with the Cubs in the NL Central, trailing them by 0.5 games. If the Brewers miss the playoffs, or only get a Wild Card, the answer for voters may become clear; Bellinger will win the award.
As for Yelich, he’s having a better season in every way this year than his 2018. It would be disappointing to see his best season net him a 2nd place finish, when his 2nd best season won him the award. It’s the nature of these things, though. Mike Trout finished 2nd in his first two years, then won in his third. Guess which year was the worst of the three? Exactly, his third. Yelich is likely more focused on making the playoffs and getting revenge on the Dodgers, who knocked his Brewers out in the NLCS. And the player that hit the series-defining home run was none other than Cody Bellinger.
It’s almost funny how things have shaken out in the NL. The Dodgers and Brewers faced off in the NLCS last year, and the series went 7 games. It was the best series in the playoffs last year, with each team threatening to win the NL at different points. The Dodgers went up 3-2 in the series, but the Brewers won game 6 to force a decisive game 7. The Brewers led 1-0, but lost their lead in the 2nd inning and didn’t recover. Bellinger hit a 2-run homer in the 2nd, which ended up being the decisive RBIs. Yelich had hit the homer to give Milwaukee the lead in the first, but he couldn’t break through after that. LA won the series, Bellinger won the MVP, and that was that.
Now, with both of their teams in position to make the playoffs, the true test could come in October. As of now, for the award, Bellinger is the favorite to win MVP. He has a higher WAR, his team has more wins, and Yelich won last year (voters don’t usually like repeat winners). While Yelich may end up with just as good of an individual campaign as Bellinger, the voters will lean into Bellinger because of the team record. It probably shouldn’t matter, but it does. The MVP race should be dramatic down the stretch, with 70+ games left for each to make their case.
The real question is: if Bellinger’s Dodgers host Yelich’s Brewers in the playoffs, who wins the rematch?
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