By: Nick LaPorte, 7/25/2019
With baseball’s trade deadline approaching quickly, teams are scrambling to find the pieces to turn themselves into a true contender. Whether it’s the Dodgers in first place or the A’s clinging desperately to a Wild Card spot, every team needs help in one area or another. It’s no surprise that trade discussions seem to be heating up, particularly around one of the best right-handers in the National League: Luis Castillo of the Cincinnati Reds.
In 2017, Castillo debuted for the Reds and pitched 89.1 innings, with a 3.12 ERA and 1.9 WAR. This earned him a permanent starting job, and Castillo was poised to become a young ace for a growing team. Instead, Castillo fell off a bit, holding a 4.30 ERA in 31 starts last season, and he was striking batters out less than ever. The Reds didn’t sweat though; they knew Castillo showed promise in his rookie year. They handed him the keys to the rotation this season and Castillo has more than proven himself; a 2.36 ERA in 20 starts, 2.4 WAR already, and an All-Star nod. The Reds have even remained in the race, sort of, thanks to Castillo.
I was surprised when I saw the rumors surrounding a Castillo trade at the deadline, because I’m not a huge fan of bad teams getting rid of talent. If the Reds trade Castillo, it could set their farm system up to be the best in baseball. But it also signals to the fans the Reds don’t believe they will contend for a playoff spot for at least 3 seasons. For a fanbase that hasn’t seen postseason baseball since 2013, that’s a rough pill to swallow. Joey Votto has entered the twilight of his career and the Reds have been unable to surround him with talent to make one last run.
According to Tim Daniels of Bleacher Report, the Reds have attached an “exorbitant price tag” for any teams trying to acquire Castillo. This makes sense, as any team that lands Castillo doesn’t just get him for the rest of 2019; in fact they will have him cost-controlled through his age 30 season in 2023. It’s different than when the A’s traded for Jon Lester in 2014; Lester was a free agent at the end of the year and he still commanded a high price. To acquire 4.5 years of control of Castillo will require a haul of prospects that may seem similar to what the Thunder received from the Clippers in the NBA this summer for Paul George. In other words, Castillo is not cheap.
As Jon Morosi puts it, ““The Reds haven’t hung up the phone on teams who have called. They are waiting to be wowed…”. Which teams out there could put together a package that satisfies the Reds? The teams that make the most sense are the Dodgers, the Yankees, and Astros. It’s no surprise all 3 of these suitors are in first-place in their divisions, and all of them could use a pitcher of Castillo’s caliber. The Dodgers are the back-to-back NL champions, but fell short in the postseason both times. With the best record in baseball, the Dodgers are eying a third straight World Series, and Castillo could help them get there.
The Dodgers have great pitchers already; Clayton Kershaw is one of the best lefties in the last 20 years, Walker Buehler is a sophomore All-Star, and veteran Hyun-Jin Ryu has the lowest ERA in the NL. Castillo isn’t a must for LA, but he would make their rotation the best in all of baseball. It would cost the Dodgers a package of prospects that they may be wary of parting with, but Castillo offers them a young All-Star under control for 4.5 years. It makes sense for the Dodgers to pay a heavy price for Castillo and eat the damage it would do to their farm system. After all, the Dodgers already have players like Buehler, MVP-candidate Cody Bellinger, and rookie phenomenon Alex Verdugo. If any team can afford to lose talented young players, it’s the Dodgers.
Over in the American League, the Yankees and Astros make sense as potential trade partners for Cincinnati. In New York, Castillo could slot in as their ace immediately. The Yankees can hit, and their bullpen is elite, but starting pitching is their Achilles heel. It cost them in the postseason last year and it very well may cost them again. The Yankees rotation includes Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, and James Paxton. I’m not sure any of those pitchers would be a number 3 in some playoff rotations, but for the Yankees it’s the best they have. You can see easily why Castillo is a great fit in New York; for a playoff-bound team with no ace, Castillo solves their problems in one move. The Yankees are in win-now mode, so sacrificing some depth in their minor league system is worth it to land Castillo.
Finally, the Astros have their eyes on Castillo in their quest to round out their playoff rotation. The Astros lost starter Charlie Morton to the Rays in the offseason, and Morton has gone on to have an All-Star caliber season. To make matters worse for the Astros, their ace Gerrit Cole is a free agent at the end of the year. We’ve already seen the Astros let one great pitcher walk because of money; it’s not inconceivable to think they will lose Cole in a bidding war. This is where Castillo fits in; by trading for Castillo, the Astros could have some insurance in case Cole decides to pitch elsewhere. The Astros window is right now, while they still have Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, and George Springer on affordable contracts. Trading for Castillo not only makes them stronger this year, but it also reaffirms their title window.
Overall, I think the Reds will hang on to Castillo at this deadline. Their asking price is high and there are other pitchers on the market that are more affordable. In addition to that, Castillo is a candidate for regression. Castillo’s ERA of 2.36 is nearly a run and a half below his FIP. Some pitchers do outperform their FIP but the numbers say Castillo has pitched into tremendous luck so far. Any team that trades for him would have to be aware that Castillo may have some bad starts in order. I almost think it makes more sense for a team like San Diego or Oakland to try and acquire Castillo; in other words, teams that have a longer window with young stars. If the Yankees or Dodgers want to win in 2019, I don’t think Castillo is your guy. Having said that, he’s proven to be a top level starter so far this season.
Whether Castillo is on the move in a week or he remains in Cincinnati, there’s no doubt he might be the gem in this year’s class of trade candidates. Castillo is young, cost-controlled, and very good. Any team should jump at the chance to trade for someone like Castillo… as long as the price is right.
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