By: Nick LaPorte, 7/29/2019

Before this shocking trade deadline gets going, the Blue Jays have sent Marcus Stroman to the Mets in exchange for 2 minor league pitchers. Stroman was one of the hottest pitchers on the market, in a class of trade deadline starters that is headlined by few true front-end starting pitchers. Stroman might be the best starting pitcher that actually moves this week, so it was reasonable to expect teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, Twins, or any of the other playoff contenders to go after him.

Instead, the Mets made the call, even though they sit 5 games under .500 and 11.5 games behind first-place Atlanta. This also makes me worry about the Mets’ plan in their front office; Noah Syndergaard, the Mets’ young flamethrower, was reported to be discussed as a potential trade piece. Why trade for one young potential All-Star and possibly move another? It’s the kind of strange decision that gets a GM fired down the road. The Mets have been pretenders since their 2015 World Series appearance, threatening early in the season but falling out of a playoff spot before June each year since. The same seems true in 2019.

Stroman is only under contract for one more season, and in 2021 he becomes eligible as a free agent. This short term trade is usually what a contender does to compete for a championship right away; the Tigers did this in 2014, trading for David Price who similarly had one more season of control. The Tigers flipped Price to Toronto the following season to recoup value, which is what the Mets may do. If their price was low, why not take a risk with Stroman, build his value up even more, and flip him to a desperate team next July? This is unlikely though, as Jeff Passan reports they will keep Stroman. Passan believes the Mets are in pole position here, with Syndergaard and Wheeler available and a chance to really improve their farm system.

Unfortunately for Mets fans, the front office doesn’t make that kind of forward-thinking moves. They signed Jacob deGrom to an extension after his best season ever, and though deGrom has been great this year, they overpaid after a historic season instead of waiting to see if he could repeat that performance. On one hand, you have an ace locked up. On the other, you paid a premium for a guy who was already under team control. The Mets don’t do anything spectacularly bad; they just make enough good moves to throw you off the scent.

As far as we know, the Mets have zero interest in keeping Noah Syndergaard past July 31. This makes absolutely no sense to me. He is under control for an additional 2 seasons. Yes, the haul in a trade would replenish a weak farm system. But it would also signal that you don’t plan to contend for a playoff spot any time soon. Remember this winter, when the Mets dealt for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to go after the NL East? Maybe the Mets have changed their minds and want to set themselves up for the future. More likely, I think, is the Mets don’t have a plan.

Stroman is a good pitcher, and if the Mets can turn it around quickly they actually could be a possible Wild Card team. It seems unlikely, as there are so many better teams in the hunt. But Stroman makes them friskier, especially if they don’t deal Syndergaard right now. What I’m interested in is who actually moves? Besides Syndergaard, other pitchers reported to be available are Trevor Bauer (Cleveland), Matthew Boyd (Tigers), Madison Bumgarner (Giants), Tanner Roark (Reds), and possibly even Syndergaard’s teammate Zach Wheeler. While it would shock me if every one of them stays put, I could see it happening. If Stroman is the only one to move, the Mets leave me with more questions than answers.

Published by statsondeckpod

In the Stats on Deck podcast, Nick LaPorte and Jake Adams discuss a variety of sports topics, and take an in-depth statistical approach to dissect the intricacies of the game. On the blog, the Stats on Deck crew delivers more written content, found here.

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