By: Nick LaPorte, 7/31/2019
The MLB Trade Deadline has officially passed, and right up until 4PM we were waiting for anybody to make a big move. The Braves added Shane Greene, the former Tigers closer, and the Reds landed Cleveland’s Trevor Bauer, but no contender had really made much of an impact until Houston stepped in. Moments after the 4PM closing bell, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Zack Greinke was on the move. In this post I’ll try and give my thoughts on the major deals.
Zack Greinke to the Astros
With big names like Madison Bumgarner, Noah Syndergaard, and Mike Minor staying put, Greinke is the biggest piece anyone acquired. This move makes a lot of sense; Houston now has a Big 3, adding Greinke to a rotation that features Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. When it comes to October, Greinke can move the needle for the Astros, who are now undoubtedly the favorites in the AL. The Yankees, Twins, Indians, and Red Sox all held off on acquiring anyone of consequence, and the Astros stand alone in the AL as the team that dramatically improved their chances.
Greinke doesn’t come without a price though; he’s one of the highest paid pitchers in baseball. Over the next 2 seasons, the Astros will pay him $64 million in his age 36 and 37 year old seasons. That is scary; especially for a pitcher that has looked shaky at times in Arizona. This is a clear win-now move; it reminds me of the trade for Justin Verlander in 2017. That trade was the difference for the Astros that year, and he helped them win a World Series. The Astros hope Greinke is that piece that puts them over the edge once again.
In addition to the money, the Astros also gave up 4 high-level prospects. While it’s difficult to say how good any of those players will be, the Astros farm system is dramatically worse. This matters especially in Houston, because young stars Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman, as well as Cole, are all due for big contracts in the next couple seasons. Giving up your organizational depth is a tough pill to swallow, especially if you lose one of those players to free agency. It will all be worth it though if Greinke helps them win this season.
Greene and Melancon to the Braves
The other big domino to fall was Shane Greene, the lights-out closer from the Detroit Tigers. Multiple teams were in on Greene, with reports that the Nationals, Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox were in the running. The Tigers asking price was high, and they ultimately liked what Atlanta had to offer. The Braves gave up 2 of their better prospects, including Joey Wentz (their #7 prospect according to MLB Pipeline).
Leading up to the deal, the Tigers were trading in a position of strength, because so many contending teams needed bullpen help. In the end, the Braves got their guy. Greene is under team control through 2020, and has posted an ERA under 1.50 this season. I would caution Braves fans if they think they’re getting Mariano Rivera reborn though; Greene’s FIP is 2 runs higher than his ERA. He pitches to contact and he’s pitched into tremendous luck; by all accounts he’s due for regression.
Atlanta also added Mark Melancon from the Giants, a former closer who has returned to form in 2019. In a setup role he’s been good, with an ERA around 3.00 and his sinker back in the strike zone after a disappointing start to his tenure with the Giants. Greene is the prize for the Braves, but Melancon bolsters their bullpen and gives them a more complete team. With the Nationals and Phillies on their heels, the Braves have gone all-in on 2019.
Jesus Aguilar to the Rays, Nicholas Castellanos to the Cubs
Both the Cubs and Rays have added big bats to their lineups for the stretch run. Both teams still have a legitimate shot at winning their respective divisions, and are certainly in range for a Wild Card. Aguilar has had a poor 2019, but he gives Tampa another big bat to throw at the Yankees weak pitching staff. Aguilar has the power that many Rays hitters lack, and he should find more success hitting in the smaller AL East ballparks.
Castellanos is an under-the-radar great move by the Cubs. I wrote about him a month ago, suggesting the Nationals should acquire the big right-handed bat. Instead, Chicago got the deal done. Castellanos isn’t the same power hitter that JD Martinez is, but his bat will play much better at Wrigley than it did in Detroit. Also, for what it’s worth, Castellanos is a doubles machine. He will fit in nicely and also ensure Kris Bryant can stay at 3B, where he’s most comfortable.
Nationals Add Daniel Hudson and 2 Other Relievers
Owning the worst bullpen ERA in the NL is what the Nationals have dealt with in 2019, and it’s the chief reason why the Braves lead them by 6.5 games. The Nationals added 3 decent options to setup closer Sean Doolittle: Daniel Hudson from Toronto, and Roenis Elias and Hunter Strickland from Seattle. Hudson is the best of the 3; owning an ERA of 3.00 and actual experience closing games in 2019. Elias is a low-risk high-reward LHP, someone who can face the tough LHB’s in the NL like Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, and Cody Bellinger.
Strickland is a project; after becoming a closer in San Francisco a couple seasons ago, Strickland fell off and never quite figured it out. His most notable moment in baseball was when he fought Bryce Harper. Still, Strickland is finally getting healthy and he gives the Nationals another option in the back half of games. GM Mike Rizzo didn’t want to spend for the big names, and instead settled for 3 decent pitchers.
Diamondbacks Replace Greinke with 2 Back-End Rotation Pitchers
After trading Greinke, the Diamondbacks needed to find options to eat those innings. Arizona added Zac Gallen from Miami and Mike Leake from Seattle, a pair of back-end starters that have potential. Gallen has pitched well in the majors this year, admittedly in only 7 games. Leake has been serviceable in Seattle, and could help Arizona in the future. At 54-55, the Diamondbacks probably punted this year and the Greinke trade proves that. But going forward they added some project pieces and bolstered their farm.
Vazquez, Bumgarner, and Syndergaard Stay Put
Sometimes the biggest stories are the ones that don’t happen; many of the players we thought would be traded stayed. Bumgarner is a free agent this winter, but San Francisco is holding on and possibly pushing for a playoff spot. The hottest team in July was the Giants, and they kept Bumgarner and closer Will Smith, likely indicating they want to contend this season.
After the Mets traded for Stroman, it appeared that Syndergaard was going to be dealt, as I wrote 2 days ago. The Mets were trying to “hijack” the market, driving up the price of Syndergaard and starter Zack Wheeler. It backfired on the Mets, which was predictable. Instead of bolstering their farm system by trading either of those 2, the Mets added Stroman and weakened their minor league talent. The Mets now have a rotation that features Jacob deGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman, and Wheeler. It’s too bad they can’t hit, otherwise they would be a playoff team.
The other shocking development was Felipe Vazquez, the dominant closer for the Pirates. Instead of heading to LA, or Boston, Vazquez stays in Pittsburgh. The Dodgers wanted him badly, to strengthen their pen and have insurance for Kenley Jansen. Ultimately the Pirates wanted too much, and teams backed off. With a rematch of the 2017 World Series looking possible, the Astros definitely feel good going into that series. The Dodgers, on the other hand, don’t.
All in all it was an underwhelming trade deadline. Shane Greene makes Atlanta better but the Nationals added decent pitchers too. The Cubs and Rays added a bat, but neither are All-Stars. Most teams that needed pitching didn’t get help, and it seems that the sellers valued their own guys too much. Let’s say this; more players should have been dealt. So many teams are in playoff position, but few got better today. The Astros are the clear winner, but Greinke is old and due a lot of money. As we say every trade deadline; buyer beware.
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