By: Nick LaPorte, 8/9/2019
Alright everyone, we have something of a surprise on our hands; the Mets are legitimately competing in August! For the first time since 2016, when the Mets fell in the Wild Card game, New York has 2 competitive baseball teams. After falling into the pits of hell, the Mets have climbed back into postseason discussion. Since the All Star break, there is no better team in all of Major League Baseball than the New York Mets. Over the last 10 games, only the Astros can match the Mets’ 9-1 record. In that time, the Mets have escaped relative mediocrity and managed to thrust themselves back into the conversation.
When the Mets traded for Marcus Stroman from the Blue Jays, we wondered what their endgame was… did they try to hijack the market to drive up the price for Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler? Probably yes, that was their intention. But GMs weren’t biting at the deadline and the Mets kept their 2 hard throwing soon-to-be free agents, and so far it’s worked out quite well. The Mets feature what is perhaps the most complete 5-man rotation in baseball; 2018 Cy Young Jacob deGrom anchors a rotation that features Syndergaard, Stroman, Wheeler, and lefty Steven Matz. Talk about throwing heat.
I’m one of the people that questioned the sanity of the Mets organization after trading for Stroman and keeping Syndergaard and Wheeler; read more here. At any rate, the Mets sit on the precipice of contention. Here’s one that may be hard to swallow; as of today, the Mets are higher than the Phillies in the standings. Yes, the same Phillies that added Bryce Harper, Jean Segura, and JT Realmuto this season. On the Stats on Deck podcast, Jake and I predicted that the Mets would remain competitive this season. In the beginning of the year our predictions looked great, and then May through June made us look foolish. Now, with the Mets only 0.5 games out of the 2nd Wild Card in the NL, it looks plausible once again.
It’s no secret the Braves and Nationals have separated themselves in the NL East; while the Phillies and Mets are in the discussion, the Nationals are on the heels of the Braves (only 4 losses separate the 2 teams). But the Mets make sense as a Wild Card contender, and they seem to be a team that can cause problems in a 5 or 7 game series. Think about how high we view the Astros rotation thinking about October baseball; the Mets rotation is in the conversation with the Astros, Dodgers, and Nationals as the most feared in a potential playoff series. Asking deGrom to pitch in a Wild Card game is easy; he was the best pitcher in baseball in 2018, and this season he’s shown that he’s here to stay. While he may not be a historic pitcher year in and year out, deGrom is one of the true aces in baseball. The Mets would be as good as anyone in a 1-game playoff.
Even though the Mets are right back in contention for a playoff spot, I have trouble trusting them at this moment. They head towards a crucial stretch that sees them face the Nationals, Braves, and Dodgers in 3 straight series. Those are currently 3 of the 5 NL playoff teams, so the Mets have their work cut out for them. It would take a miracle to survive that 9-10 game stretch, and the Mets have weaknesses. For one, their bullpen is shaky at times. Closer Edwin Diaz, who should have been traded, has blown more than 5 easy saves in 3 months and has issues winning games. Their offense, behind young players Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil, is streaky. Alonso, for example, is only hitting .208 in his last 30 games with 9 homers. Slugger Robinson Cano offers little value now, and besides Alonso and McNeil, there are no real threats. That being said, they are more than capable of showing up in a Wild Card game.
This stretch will show if the Mets can really contend into September, because to be a playoff team you have to withstand gauntlets like this one. Yes, the Mets play 3 tough teams back-to-back-to-back. But that’s what the playoffs are about; beating good teams in order. It’s nice to play the Marlins, Orioles, and Royals now and then. But the big games show what a team is truly made of, and these next 2 weeks will show is what the Mets are capable of.
If they flourish, we can expect them to be contenders down the stretch for a Wild Card and maybe more. If they fail; well, unfortunately, we’ve seen the Mets do that too in recent years. Time will tell, but we will soon know which Mets are really showing up in 2019.
Stats On Deck Blog 