By: Nick LaPorte, 8/24/2019
In perhaps the most head-scratching moment of the NFL preseason, Colts’ Star QB Andrew Luck has announced his retirement from the NFL. Per Adam Schefter, Luck will officially announce his decision tomorrow. Luck, only 29 years old, is moving on from the NFL after just 86 career games. Luck finished last season with 4,593 passing yards, and 39 TD’s, 2nd highest in the NFL. The Colts finished 10-6 and won their first-round game against the Texans, but ultimately fell to the Chiefs in the Divisional round.
There isn’t much of a precedent for a superstar retiring at the peak of his powers. Michael Jordan stepped away from the NBA for 2 seasons after winning 3 straight championships, but he returned and went on to win 3 more. There’s also Calvin Johnson, who retired after the 2015 season when he was just 30 years old. Johnson was one of the best wideouts in football, but retired to preserve the long-term health of his body. Earlier this year, Rob Gronkowski announced his retirement at age 30, after an outstanding but also injury-riddled career. When guys retire this early, it’s almost always because of health.
Health has been the biggest issue for Luck, the first-pick in the 2012 draft. After moving on from Peyton Manning, the Colts handed the reigns to Luck that season and Luck responded with success. Luck’s Colts made the playoffs 3 straight years, advancing as far as the AFC Championship Game in 2014. Luck began to develop an extensive injury history after that season, and played just 22 of a possible 48 games from 2015-2017. Finally, in 2018, Luck was all the way back. Luck had spent over a year regaining strength in his shoulder, and by the end of the season he had established himself once again as a top-5 quarterback. At only 30 years old, Luck should have been able to play at this level for at least 5 more seasons. The fact that he’s retired leaves us with more questions than answers.
It’s fair to wonder about Luck’s health, and whether he’s ever fully healed from some of those injuries he suffered. In Schefter’s tweet, he mentions that Luck is “mentally worn down, and now checking out.” This all feels very strange; in fact, while this was announced, Luck is on the sidelines with his teammates acting like nothing is happening. The Colts were entering this season as AFC contenders, and that rested on Luck’s worn-down shoulders. Without him, the Colts are likely back to the bottom of the standings. I don’t know what to say really, besides the fact that this changes the landscape of the NFL. Among the ramifications are these: One less challenger stands in the way of Tom Brady, the Texans have an easier path to the playoffs, and Jacoby Brissett is now handed the keys to the Colts.
In 2011, when Peyton Manning missed all 16 games and the Colts won just 2 times, they received the #1 pick in the 2012 draft. Luck was selected but the Colts still had Manning and his surgically repaired neck. Manning had been to the Super Bowl twice in Indy, winning in 2006. The Colts feared that Manning would never return to form, and sent him on his way in favor of the young sensation, Luck. Manning went to Denver and won another Super Bowl, ending his career on a high note. The Colts, while remaining competitive, haven’t come that close. In the end, Manning gets the last laugh. But, for the record, the Colts still made the best decision at the time. It’s just heartbreaking now, 7 years later, to see how it played out for them.
Now that they’re in this position once again, the Colts have incentive to perform poorly. In 1998, the Colts took Manning 1st overall. In 2012, they took Luck 1st overall. Now, with just Brissett as an option, the Colts need to find a QB of the future. I doubt that Brissett is that guy, and I doubt the Colts will succeed without Luck. The Colts have built an impressive team, but it all hinges on the quarterback. In this system, Brissett could maybe get the Colts to an 8-8 record. But they would never win a championship with him. Once again, the Colts will look to the draft to find the next star QB.
All in all, it’s a momentous decision from Luck that shifts the landscape of the NFL for years to come. With Manning retired and Tom Brady’s career possibly winding down, it looked like Pat Mahomes and Luck would be the next great AFC rivalry. Instead, Mahomes reigns supreme and Luck’s career is over. Let that sink in: Andrew Luck retired from the NFL before Tom Brady.
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