By: Nick LaPorte, 8/31/2019
Spoiler Alert: Do not read any further if you haven’t seen up through Season 2, Episode 3 of HBO’s “Succession”
This is more of a “test” piece than anything, so be advised this is definitely out of my comfort zone. Lately, 2 things are on my mind every day. The Nationals and the show “Succession.” Obviously I’m a Nationals fan, and we’ve reached a point in the season where the playoff teams start to distance themselves from the field. The Braves have been so good that a 6-1 road trip by the Nationals didn’t move the needle in the divisional standings. As we head down the stretch, with the Nationals and Braves slated for just 2 more series matchups, we’ll find out a lot in regards to who is coming out of the NL East in 2019.
Besides the Braves and Nationals, both the Mets and Phillies are right in the thick of the Wild Card race, and only the lowly Marlins are officially out of contention for a playoff spot in the East. This brings me to my other obsession; “Succession.” I was a late adopter of the show, and only caught up on the recommendation from my Stats on Deck co-host, Jake. He told me that “Succession” was one of the best shows on TV, and now 13 episodes later I have to agree. If you’re familiar with the show, you know that Logan Roy owns the fictional media conglomerate Waystar Royco, and that the family is loosely based on the real-life Murdoch family, while also drawing parallels to famous families like the Kennedys, the Trumps, and more.
I decided to cast each NL East team as a Roy family member, and the characters I’m using are pretty much the main siblings (and Tom). Without further ado, here is what I’ve come up with.
The Atlanta Braves as Kendall Roy
Kendall begins the show as the odds-on favorite to take over Waystar, and season 1 sees him nearly take the CEO job for good before an unfortunate accident after Shiv and Tom’s wedding. Kendall is looking to score some coke, and the waiter from the party knows a guy, and after a crash into the water Kendall leaves after a halfhearted attempt to save the kid’s life. The problem is that Logan knows; this means Kendall is back under his dad’s arm and has no leverage to take over any time soon. Still, looking at the family, there’s no doubt he’s still the best option to take over when Logan does decide to step down.
The Braves fit the bill because they have a lot in common with Kendall; both are in good standing, both are recovering after a rough period of their lives, and the Braves are ruthless, just like Ken. Look at how they’ve managed to step over everyone else in the division so far; the Braves hold the 2nd best record in the NL and have shown no signs of slowing down. The only thing that could stop them from succeeding is themselves. Just like Kendall. With young studs Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies, as well as juggernaut Freddie Freeman, the Braves are in good shape. But like Kendall’s coke problem, the Braves have a bullpen problem. Former closer Luke Jackson and deadline acquisition Shane Greene have struggled to close out games. The same way Ken’s cocaine obsession cost him the chance to be CEO, the Braves bullpen may cost them a chance to go far in the postseason.
The Washington Nationals as Siobhan “Shiv” Roy
Shiv is like a hurricane, and she’s incredibly successful. Look at the Nationals with their 4 division titles since 2012. But Shiv also started the show with little power at Waystar Royco, the same way the Nationals were in 4th place until late May. One reason Shiv isn’t an executive at Waystar is that she claims she doesn’t want it, but in Season 2 Logan appears to offer her a chance to be his successor. Shiv drops politics and heads straight for the job, already planning her rise to power. She’s on a hot streak the way the Nationals are, owners of the best record in baseball since the end of May.
Like Shiv, the Nationals have it where it counts: their 4-man rotation is as good as any in baseball, and their offense is red hot too. The Nationals have averaged 7 runs per game in the month of August, and they play with a comfortable confidence you find in a character like Shiv Roy. The Nationals know they’re talented, the same way Shiv knows she’s the best option to take over. Still, the Nationals have to deal with the Braves ahead of them, as Shiv does with Kendall. No matter what Logan says, Shiv can’t just jump in and be the CEO. Kendall has the pedigree, the name, and the ruthlessness to take over. While Shiv is competent herself, it’s no question Kendall is a better bet to win it all.
The Philadelphia Phillies as Roman Roy
If there’s one word that describes the Phillies, it’s the word “arrogant.” And who among the Roy family is more arrogant than Roman? The Braves and Nationals are the true contenders in the division, as Shiv and Kendall are for the CEO job at Waystar. But the way Roman believes he’s the best guy for the job, the Phillies feel that they are the best team in the division. The lack of self-awareness is evident in the way the Phillies marketed themselves coming into 2019: they haven’t made the playoffs since 2011 but the additions of Jean Segura, JT Realmuto, and Bryce Harper suddenly made them better than the Braves and Nationals? As I said on the over/under podcast, the Phillies shouldn’t have been the favorite. Roman pissed away most of his adult life messing around, but after a severe case of nepotism bought him the COO job, he thinks he’s worthy of running a multi-billion dollar company.
This is why Roman fits the bell for the Phillies, and why this was probably the easiest choice to make besides Conor (see the last section). Bryce Harper’s contract has ultimately helped the Phillies in the short term; he’s been better this season and has an OPS of .869 and has hit well since the beginning of August. But the long-term commitment will ultimately define why the Phillies are wasting their chances; they chose to pay Harper $320 million and he’s not a top-15 player in the NL. Just like we can’t take Roman serious as a contender, we can’t take the Phillies seriously as a playoff threat.
The New York Mets as Tom Wamsgans
Another obvious pick, and I think for a variety of reasons. Tom is the up-jumped Minnesota native that marries rich and becomes successful, all the while being belittled by the Roy family because he’s not quite on their level. This is exactly how the Mets are; they see themselves as a contender but none of the other 3 playoff contenders are really afraid of them. Tom thinks he can swing the CEO job but Logan Roy barely even acknowledges his existence. Tom’s marriage with Shiv is a sham, as she spends a lot of time utilizing the “open” principle of her open marriage. Tom is even outwitted by Greg, the lovable cousin who wisely keeps information that can hurt Tom later on. The Mets are beaten at every turn, the same way Tom is.
One thing Tom has going for him is his humor and his ability to enjoy himself, and the Mets surely provide the same amount of humor for us bystanders. The Mets are the same team that so distrusted their manager they had the GM texting in-game decisions to the dugout this year. Manager Mickey Callaway is likely on his way out, and another year has gone by where they wasted Jacob deGrom’s prime. To be fair to the Mets, like Tom they are successful in their own right. They did make a World Series in 2015, and though that was a fluke it reminds me of Tom’s promotion to co-head of ATN. It may be a shallow victory, but it’s something to be proud of anyway.
The Miami Marlins as Conor Roy
Finally, we reach the Marlins, the bottom of the East and the only team in the division that’s not in the conversation for a playoff spot. Conor may be Logan’s first born son, but for reasons left unsaid he’s never tried to assume the CEO job from his father. The Marlins have the pedigree; they’ve gone on 2 World Series runs in the last 25 years, something the Nationals, Mets, and Braves can’t say. But besides those 2 years, the Marlins are almost always the worst team in the division. Conor shares this quality; of the 4 siblings and Tom, there’s no doubt Conor has the worst chances in regards to coming out on top.
It’s not all bad for the fish though, as they have some talented young players and more on the way in the minors. With new ownership led by Derek Jeter, the Marlins are committed to a long-term rebuild. In the past, previous owner Jeffrey Loria was more interested in profit than winning. He was known for his deadline fire sales, when he would trade any good players in order to not pay them later (including Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez). Conor also has big things in the works; he plans on sealing a nomination to become President of the United States, despite never having worked as his girlfriend/prostitute Willa reminds him. It’s easy to foresee Conor’s plans ultimately failing, which is unfortunately true for the Marlins as well.
Author’s note: I understand that the picks for Ken and Shiv could be reversed. I see the argument that the Nationals could be Kendall, which would leave the Braves as Siobhan. But I feel that since you can go either way, my picks are justified. If you feel strongly that I’m wrong please let me know, would love to hear your thoughts.
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