By: Nick LaPorte, 9/5/2019
Before jumping into the season opener between the Packers and Bears, first we must cover what happened this week between Antonio Brown and the Raiders. When Jon Gruden and GM Mike Mayock traded for Brown, we all suspected Brown would have difficulty fitting in. This is the same guy who sat out week 17 because he couldn’t set aside his personal differences with his teammates. This is also the same player who anointed himself “Mr. Big Chest” out of nowhere. Brown also dealt with a weird foot issue during training camp, and recently began a dispute with the NFL because his preferred helmet was no longer approved.
The latest chapter in the Brown saga is a dispute with the Raiders front office. GM Mike Mayock fined Brown for missing practice and AB posted on Instagram his displeasure. On Wednesday, Brown and Mayock nearly got in a physical altercation, and entered into a shouting match and Brown threatened to punch Mayock in the face. Now, Brown will be suspended before their week 1 game and Brown is at risk to miss 4 games and void the guaranteed money in his contract. It’s not crazy to imagine Brown’s short tenure in Oakland is near its end. It makes you rethink the Steelers drama of the last 2 years; maybe Mike Tomlin is a better coach than we thought. He kept that team together enough to contend for the playoffs, and with Brown in tow I don’t know how he managed. For now, we wait for more information as Gruden and Mayock are remaining silent.
Packers defeat Bears 10-3
This season began in Chicago, the historic field that’s housed the Bears since 1971. The Packers came to town with a chip on shoulder, ready to bounce back from a losing season in which QB Aaron Rodgers played on 1.5 legs and their defense didn’t defend much for 16 games. The Bears are the favorites to win the NFC North, with the Vikings and Packers projected behind them. The Packers entered this season in unfamiliar ground; as underdogs. When you have a QB like Rodgers, you don’t need much surrounding him to contend for the playoffs. The Packers felt confident that their upgrades defensively would be enough to get them back on track.
With a 3-0 early lead, it looked like the Bears would keep rolling with their defense shutting teams down. But in the 2nd quarter, Aaron Rodgers drove down the field methodically and found Jimmy Graham in the end zone to take a 7-3 lead. Neither team’s offense was able to contribute anything serious as both defenses played staunch and tough. Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky took 4 sacks and Rodgers took 5. Both QBs struggled, with neither eclipsing 150 yards through 3. At the end 3 quarters, the Packers held a narrow 7-3 lead. Early in the 4th, after a particularly bad drive filled with dropped passes and penalties, the Bears fans audibly started booing the team as the offense walked off the field. Needless to say, every fan was restless for some offense.
The Packers got the ball inside their own 10 yard line but Rodgers was able to move down the field enough into field goal range, and after a Mason Crosby 39-yard FG, the Packers pushed their lead to 10-3. Chicago drove all the way down to the red zone on the next possession, but on 3rd and 10 Trubisky forced one to the end zone and it was intercepted by Adrian Amos, giving the Packers the ball at their 20 with just under 2 minutes to play. It was a critical error by Trubisky, but the Bears had all 3 timeouts so a FG attempt wouldn’t have helped much. Rodgers fed the ball to Aaron Jones to eat the clock, but they ultimately punted and the Bears took over from their 14. With one last chance to drive down the field, Trubisky went 1-3 for 2 yards, and a sack on 4th down to secure the win for Green Bay’s new and improved defense.
For the Packers, it’s a statement win to start the season. Rodgers navigated through a tough defense and did just enough to secure a win, throwing for 203 yards and 1 TD. Rodgers got the TD his team sorely needed, whereas Trubisky threw an INT in the most critical moment of the game. It’s a good start for the Packers, but remember they started last year 1-0 by beating the Bears. It’s going to take more than one week to convince us the Packers are back to normal. The encouraging news is their defense passed the test, holding Chicago to 3 points, creating the game’s only turnover, and sacking Trubisky 5 times. The Packers will want to see more from Rodgers and star WR Davante Adams in the weeks to come, but they’ll take the 1-0 start to the season, proving they can win those close games with an improved defense.
The Bears, meanwhile, still have the same problem they did last year; the team can only go as far as Trubisky takes them. On a day where he could show the world he was ready to take the leap, Trubisky instead showed the world he still has a long way to go before he can be considered one of the game’s elite QBs. The Bears also struggled to play clean football, committing nearly 10 penalties and throwing away one drive in the 4th due to 3 straight 10-yard penalties. Trubisky was forced to throw 44 times, which is not the key to a Bears win. When they won last year, it was due to their running game and their defense. While their defense held Rodgers and co. to just 10 points, it was the Packers defense instead that came through in the key moment of the game.
Now I’ll give you 3 games I like this weekend, and how I would bet it (if I had the money).
JETS (-3) over Bills
While the Jets and Bills may not be contenders to win the AFC East, both teams enter this season with playoff aspirations. The Jets added Leveon Bell, who sat out the 2018-2019 season and was released by the Steelers. Bell was one of the best RBs in football the 2 previous years, and the Jets have high hopes they can ride Bell into the playoffs. The Bills, meanwhile, carry one of the league’s better defenses. Remember last season though; the Bills struggled to score points all season whereas the Jets has better luck, including their week 1 48-17 win against the Lions.
Even though neither team figures to be at the top of the standings, this could be the sneaky game of the week. The Bills will be in this game, if only because of their defense. I also like their RB Devin Singletary, who should get the lion’s share of carries now that Lesean McCoy isn’t handcuffing him. The tricky part is Josh Allen; his opponent, Sam Darnold, definitely had issues with turnovers last season. But Darnold showed flashes as a passer, throwing 17 TDs in 13 games. Allen only had 10 TDs in 12 games, and barely competed half his passes. In a close game, take the better QB. That’s Darnold, and that’s why I like the Jets to cover.
JAGUARS (+3) over Chiefs
No team enters this season with a better buzz than the Chiefs, who were the #1 seed in the AFC last season. Sophomore QB Patrick Mahomes won the MVP, and the Chiefs were a bad offsides play away from making the Super Bowl. The Chiefs have a lot of weapons, with Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins at WR, Damien Williams and Lesean McCoy at RB, and the best TE in the NFL in Travis Kelce. Mahomes will have plenty of opportunities to match his MVP campaign, in which he threw for 5,000 yards and 50 TDs. They seem like a sure thing to come out hot and stomp on the Jaguars.
However, this number intrigues me. The Jaguars went 5-11 last year, last place in the AFC South. But the year before, the Jaguars were where the Chiefs were in 2018; a top seed in the AFC and a play or two away from the Super Bowl. The Jaguars upgraded their QB situation, going from Blake Bortles to 2018 Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles. Though Foles is inconsistent, he’s a competent QB and is certainly good enough to lead a team to the playoffs. Leonard Fournette is looking to bounce back after a bad 2nd season, and the Jaguars should have a top-5 defense in the NFL. The Chiefs are great, and they will score against anyone. But Foles and Fournette will pace the Jaguars and keep them in this game. Take the points and expect a 1 or 2 point win for the Chiefs. And don’t be surprised if the Jaguars pull off the upset.
Texans (+7) over SAINTS
This number seems inflated to me, especially considering how the Saints ended the season. The Saints struggled in the winter months, and Brees didn’t look like himself. Though the Saints were screwed by the referees in the NFC Championship game, they looked vulnerable in November and December. The Texans, meanwhile, finished the season as hot as anyone. After starting 0-3 the Texans recovered and finished 11-2 over the final 13 weeks. Although they fell to the Colts in the first round, they played great football for 3 straight months. The Texans did lose DE Jadeveon Clowney, but added to their offensive line in an effort to go all-in.
I’m still not convinced either team in this game is a true Super Bowl contender. The Saints will rely more on superstar RB Alvin Kamara, which is good, but their season will depend on Drew Brees and his arm strength. Brees set the record for completion % last year, but fell off towards the end of the year. The Saints will be fresh and Brees is in the comfortable confines of the Superdome, but 7 points is too many. The Texans still have a great defense, and QB Deshaun Watson is as good as anyone when he gets protection. Take the points and let the Texans begin their Super Bowl quest with a win on the road. Or at least a cover.
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