By: Nick LaPorte, 9/11/2019
On the heels of an 8-2 stretch that has the Brewers just 1 game behind the Cubs for the 2nd NL Wild Card spot, superstar outfielder Christian Yelich has fractured his kneecap and will miss the remainder of the 2019 season. The Brewers have been decimated by injuries this season, but Yelich was their one consistent player. Yelich played in 130/143 possible games and just surpassed his MVP season with 7.7 WAR on the season. Yelich has a career best 44 home runs, and has proven that he’s taken the leap into stardom in Milwaukee.
With Yelich surging, the Brewers were finally climbing back in contention over the last few weeks. While Milwaukee trails the Cardinals by 5 games, they only trail the Cubs by 1 game for the 2nd Wild Card spot in the NL. The Cubs, and Wild Card leaders Washington, are both in a slump, going just 4-6 each over their last 10. This has allowed the Brewers to make up ground quickly, turning a 5 game deficit into 1. That’s why before the Yelich news I wouldn’t have counted them out for making a run at the division. Time is short, but the Brewers are showing signs that they still are capable of what they showed last year, when they were the NL’s best team.
The good news for the Brewers is that Yelich is under contract for 2 more seasons at roughly $7 million each year, and the Brewers can option to keep him on a cheap salary for 2022. For a player of Yelich’s caliber, that is an absolute robbery. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are making $25-$30 million per season and aren’t near Yelich’s value. If Yelich hit the market after this season, or even next season, he would be in line for a deal closer to Mike Trout’s annual salary ($35 million) than Harper’s ($26 million). But, that was the brilliance of the Marlins, they signed Yelich to a long-term deal and bet on his potential. It’s just a shame they sold low on Yelich and gave an MVP to the Brewers for not even half his trade value.
For Yelich, there is some security with the fact that he’s under contract. With his injury, the good news is that he has guaranteed money while he rehabs from the broken kneecap. Yelich doesn’t have to worry about going to the market with an injury, and assuming he is back to start 2020, the Brewers should still be contenders to make the playoffs. Even though the Brewers don’t have great starting pitching, they still have great young players to build around Yelich. With Josh Hader anchoring the bullpen, and young star Orlando Arcia at short, as well as veterans like Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, and Yasmani Grandal, the Brewers team is good right now. But are they good enough to push for a Wild Card?
Their main competitors are the Nationals, Cubs, Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Mets. The Nationals are leading the field, with a 2.5 game lead on the Cubs and 3.5 on the Brewers. It’s not a sure thing, but the Nationals are in good shape to hold on to at least one of the spots. The Cubs just lost Javy Baez with a fractured thumb, and he’s doubtful to return to action in September. Like the Brewers, the Cubs will head into a 20-game pennant race without their best player. There’s infrastructure on both teams, as both made the playoffs last year, but it’s hard to win without your MVP.
The Mets have stayed frisky, at 3 games out, and they feature an amazing starting rotation. With young bats like Jeff McNeil and Pete Alonso, there’s no telling what the Mets can do in September. But if this year follows the script of almost every year since the 1980s, the Mets will find a way to screw themselves. That leaves the Phillies and the Diamondbacks. The Phillies are good, but they don’t have enough. Their starting pitching is solid, their bullpen is ok, and their bats are decent. But they don’t excel in any area, and they’ve hovered around that .500 mark for much of the last 3 months.
Arizona is the only team that could make a push ahead of the Brewers, as they won 14/18 through September 7th, but have now lost 3 straight. It’s a bad time to lose any games when you’re that close to the playoffs, but the Diamondbacks do have one thing in their favor; strength of schedule. After this series with the Mets, the Diamondbacks play just one wining team the rest of the season. Of their final 15 games, 12 of them are against teams that aren’t in contention. There’s always a possibility for teams playing spoiler, but the Diamondbacks could potentially go for it and try to get to that 88-90 win mark. It will be difficult, but the Diamondbacks are certainly the ones who can jump ahead of the Brewers.
With Yelich out for the rest of the season, the Brewers face a tough schedule and they can’t lean on their MVP. But the Cubs are reeling from the loss of Javy Baez, and the Brewers are the NL’s hottest team the past week and a half. Even though someone like Max Scherzer could be on the horizon as the opponent in the Wild Card game, the Rockies showed us last year that it doesn’t matter who you start in that game. It matters if you can get things to go your way. Now the Brewers will try to make their own luck, after losing Yelich for the season with the worst luck of all.
Stats On Deck Blog 