Drew Brees Out 6-8 Weeks, but the NFCS is Wide Open

By: Nick LaPorte, 9/16/2019

Saints QB Drew Brees suffered a hand injury in Sunday’s loss to the Rams, and according to Ian Rapoport, Brees tore a ligament in his right thumb and will miss at least 6 weeks. This news comes on the heels of another tough loss, and the Saints sit at 1-1 on the year. There are encouraging signs for the Saints’ playoff hopes, however. The Buccaneers and Falcons each split their first 2 games, and the Panthers are 0-2. As of now, the Saints still sit tied atop the NFC South. But it will take a team effort to keep the Saints in contention 6-8 weeks from now when Brees returns to action.

The good news is the Saints have a fairly easy schedule, and backup QB Teddy Bridgewater has help. Star RB Alvin Kamara still hasn’t been unleashed fully, and Brees’ injury will let the Saints lean heavily on their run game. After losing Mark Ingram to free agency, the Saints drafted Latavius Murray and he’s already shown signs of life, ripping a 30-yard TD in the opening win. Bridgewater still has weapons in the passing game too; standout WR Michael Thomas was extended in the off-season and still looks like a true #1 wideout. And the Saints added Jared Cook, a TE from the Raiders, who Bridgewater has already developed chemistry with. Bridgewater targeted Cook 7 times, and he caught 2 passes for 25 yards. The results weren’t there but Cook is valuable in the passing game.

Looking ahead, the Saints schedule looks like this:

Week 3: @ Seahawks

Week 4: vs. Cowboys

Week 5: vs. Buccaneers

Week 6: @ Jaguars

Week 7: @ Bears

Week 8: vs. Cardinals

Week 9: BYE WEEK

Week 10: vs. Falcons

Week 11: @ Buccaneers

Week 12: vs. Panthers

To me, that looks like a relatively easy schedule. Brees could return as early as week 10 against the Falcons, and no later than the week 12 matchup with the Panthers. The bye week in the 9th week gives the Saints flexibility. If Brees is ready, he can end up only missing 6 games but still recover for 7 weeks. If he’s not ready, at the latest you would expect him to face the Buccaneers on the road in week 11. We won’t know until Brees’ recovery is underway but if he only misses those 6 games the Saints should be in good shape. The Seahawks and Cowboys will be favorites to win those games, but the Buccaneers, Jaguars, Cardinals, and Bears have problems of their own. The Saints could easily go 4-2 in tbat stretch, putting them at 5-3 on the year if Brees is ready. And if Brees misses the next 2 games, say they split them, Brees would return and the Saints would be 6-4 with 6 to play.

This doesn’t mean the path to the postseason is easy for the Saints. In fact, the season could be over by the time Brees comes back. 6 weeks is just a best-case scenario. If it’s 8+ weeks then the danger of missing out increases dramatically. Not to mention those games against the Jaguars and Bears are not easy. Both teams feature elite defenses, and it will be up to Bridgewater to lead the offense to score enough points. If the Saints go on to lose 4 or 5 of these games, and Brees is coming back with a record of, say, 5-5, the Saints would be in big trouble. You would think it takes at least 9 wins to get to the playoffs, maybe even 10. Brees would need to be near perfect and run the table, which is a lot to ask of your 40-year old QB coming off an injury.

While it’s certainly still up in the air whether the Saints can make the playoffs or not, one thing that should inspire optimism is that the NFC South looks weak this season. The Buccaneers, by virtue of a tiebreaker, lead the division, but they’re not very good. QB Jameis Winston is a turnover machine, with 17 turnovers last year and 4 already this year. They’ve also lost 4/5 dating back to last December and don’t look like a true playoff threat. The Panthers, another team that’s still struggling to find their identity, are 0-2 and have won just 1 of their last 10 regular season contests. The only team with the ability to challenge this Saints team is the Falcons.

After a disappointing 28-12 loss against the Vikings in week one, the Falcons bounced back on Sunday Night to defeat the Eagles 24-20. Matt Ryan, the former MVP, finally found star WR Julio Jones and won the game with a go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter. 3 seasons ago, the Falcons made it to the Super Bowl and nearly defeated Tom Brady’s Patriots, before blowing a 25 point lead. While the optics on a blown loss like that are bad, when Matt Ryan has talent he tends to produce. The Falcons were the sneaky upset pick in the division before Brees went down; now, they look like the favorites.

However, the Falcons face an even tougher schedule than the Saints before their week 10 meeting, after the bye week. Take a look:

• Week 3: @ Colts
• Week 4: vs. Titans
• Week 5: @ Texans
• Week 6: @ Cardinals
• Week 7: vs. Rams
• Week 8: vs. Seahawks
• Week 9: BYE WEEK
• Week 10: @ Saints

While the Falcons should take care of business against the Colts, Titans, and Cardinals, they have 3 difficult games before the bye week. The Rams and Seahawks will likely be slim favorites in those games, and the Texans could be heavy favorites in week 5. Though the Texans struggled to move the ball in Jacksonville, they played the Saints really hard and would’ve won if not for Brees and kicker Wil Lutz. The Falcons could be 4-4 headed to New Orleans, facing a Saints team that should be, at worst, 3-5 or 4-4. There will be pressure for Brees to return after the bye week, especially if the Saints are trailing the Falcons by a game or more.

I just don’t see any NFC South team asserting themselves before Brees gets back. I don’t trust the Falcons, and the Panthers and Buccaneers are more likely to win <6 games total this year each, instead of making the playoffs. It’s a 2-team race for the divisional crown, and I would put my trust in a healthy Drew Brees over Matt Ryan. While this injury probably means the Saints can’t get home field in the playoffs anymore, they could still finish 3rd or 4th in the standings. And worst case scenario, Brees will have them contending for a Wild Card.

The Brees injury is a tough pill to swallow, and Saints fans have dealt with heartbreak the last 2 seasons. The Vikings narrowly beat them in 2017, on a last second miracle touchdown. Then the referees cost the Saints a trip to the Super Bowl, in one of the most controversial plays in NFL history. It is horrible, because you need so much luck to even get to the Super Bowl. The fact that Brees has only been to one seems wrong. This year, with the odds stacked against them, might be the year they rally and make one more push to get Drew Brees his 2nd ring.