By: Nick LaPorte, 9/23/2019
As we head into the final week of regular season baseball, the divisional spots seem to be secured. The Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, and Astros have all clinched their divisions. The Cardinals hold a 3 game lead over the Brewers, and the Twins carry a 4 game lead over the Indians. We’re pretty sure of 6 of the 10 playoff teams, but what still remains unclear is how the Wild Card race will finish in each league.
While the Cubs held the 2nd Wild Card spot in the NL for weeks, a brutal 4-game sweep by the Cardinals may have sunk their chances. The Cubs sit 4 games behind both the Nationals and Brewers, who are tied for the lead in the NL Wild Card. After losing MVP-candidate Christian Yelich for the year, see here, the Brewers have rallied and are baseball’s hottest team. Though Yelich couldn’t singlehandedly drag them to the playoffs, Milwaukee seems determined to win for their superstar. It’s unfortunate the Cubs had such a brutal final 10 games, facing the Cardinals 7 times, because both the Brewers and Nationals have taken advantage of easier opponents.
It remains unclear whether the Nationals will end up holding the home-field advantage they’ve had since the All-Star break, or if the Brewers can take the top spot. The Nationals are at the other end of the spectrum, losers of all but 2 series’ in September. With the Phillies in town for 5 straight, the Nationals should be able to secure their spot within the next few days. Their magic number to clinch a spot is 4, meaning a combined 4 wins or Cubs losses will net them a playoff spot. But with the Brewers red-hot, and the Nationals in a slump, pushing for home-field is a must.
The Nationals have Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg lined up to go game 162 and the Wild Card respectively if need be, and if home-field is in reach on the final day the Nationals may consider using their 2-eyed ace a game early. It’s not like Stephen Strasburg is a bad choice to go in a 1-game playoff: Strasburg is 17-6 with a 3.37 ERA, and a 5.5 WAR, which is 3rd in the NL. It happens that Scherzer, with a 6.5 WAR, ranks higher, but either could be the right choice to likely face the Brewers. The Nationals invested in starting pitching over slugger Bryce Harper, and it’s paid off. Now, with a chance to clinch a playoff spot against Harper’s Phillies this week, expect the Nationals to go for the kill.
Meanwhile in the AL, the same 3 teams are fighting for the same 2 spots. The Athletics, a Wild-Card team from 2018, have followed up with another amazing season. Though they again couldn’t make it a race against the Astros, the A’s hold a 2-game lead over the Indians and/or Rays. To begin the week, the A’s face the Angels, a team with nothing to play for and no Mike Trout until 2020. The Indians face a similar spoiler, the White Sox, who also have nothing to play for. It’s the Rays, who face the Yankees, who are vying for home-field advantage for the entire playoffs, who should be worried. Expect the Yankees to keep their foot on the gas, because they only trail the Astros by 0.5 games for home-field.
It’s difficult to predict which team will fall off, the Indians or the Rays. If it comes to it, there could be a game 163 on Monday September 30, with the winner turning around 2 days later to head to Oakland for the true Wild Card game. What may determine that is the weekend slate. The Rays take on the Blue Jays, another team with nothing to play for. It’s not uncommon for bad teams to play spoiler, but a motivated Rays team won’t take that series lightly.
The more interesting weekend series features 2 teams in the hunt. The Indians face the Nationals, who as I mentioned earlier are in a race of their own. While the Nationals may lock up a spot against Philly early in the week, they’ll likely be vying for home-field with the Brewers. The Brewers face the Rockies, and while that series is in hitter-friendly Coors field, the Brewers seem to have an easier path to the top spot. But that’s why it may get difficult for the Indians; if the Nationals are in position to take the top spot from the Brewers, the Indians may end up facing 2 of the best pitchers in the NL in that series. It’s no guarantee, but the Indians may be tasked with an incredibly difficult series.
On the other hand, if either the Nationals or Brewers have locked up the top spot by Saturday, you may see the Nationals save Stephen Strasburg or Max Scherzer for the Wild Card game, meaning the Indians would be facing instead a number 4/5 starter. Nothing is a sure thing, but the Indians would rather face a worse pitcher if it could help their own playoff chances. With the Rays and Indians both facing at least one more tough series, the AL race may come down to the final day. The A’s could still make it interesting if they lose their 2-game lead, but 2 games is fairly safe with a week to play. It seems that the A’s will hold on and only one of the Rays or Indians will get a ticket to October.
If you want my best guess, here’s how I think it goes: the Nationals take 4/5 from Philly and stand at 89-70 with 3 to play. The Brewers take 2/3 (losing to Castillo) and sit at 88-71. With the Nationals leading the race by 1, they’ll elect to use Strasburg and lefty Patrick Corbin against the Indians, with the potential to win 2/3. The Brewers hold the tiebreaker, so if the Nationals and Brewers finish with identical records the game would be played in Milwaukee. Again, expect the Nationals to pull all the stops to try and get home-field, but don’t be surprised if the Brewers ride their wave to the finish line. Nothing is more dangerous than a team playing like they have nothing to lose.
In the AL, I see Oakland holding on to the top spot, and hosting the Wild Card. Say they take both their games against the Angels and 3/4 from the Mariners. That puts them safely at 99 wins and secures home-field no matter what. Keeping with my prediction earlier, I’ll say the Rays win their game today against the Red Sox and split with the Yankees, leaving them at 94-65. Meanwhile, the Indians take 2/3 from the White Sox, and sit at, you guessed it, 94-65. In this case I’ll take the Rays to finish ahead of the Indians, who face the Nationals. If the Rays sweep that may guarantee them the spot, because the Nationals should be able to take at least 1/3 from the Indians. And if the Rays can sweep that 2-game set against the Yankees, they may well decide it then and there. The Rays fell short last year, but this is their time.
So if you’re following me, my official unofficial predictions have the Nationals hosting the Brewers in the NL Wild Card, and the A’s hosting the Rays in the AL Wild Card. Could I be wrong? Of course! That’s why it’s fun to make predictions, because you either look like a genius or an idiot. And as we know from baseball, and the law of averages, it evens out over time. Sit back, find a way to get 2-3 TVs on at all times, and enjoy this last week of regular season baseball. Because, depending on which team you support, what comes after is equally frustrating and amazing,.
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