By: Nick LaPorte, 10/8/2019
Fantasy owners have known this for some time but Christian McCaffrey is finally getting the attention he deserves. The Panthers drafted the 5′ 11″ RB out of Stanford in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft, and there were those that questioned whether he could be a 3-down back. McCaffrey seemed to lack the physicality to be anything more than a 3rd-down back like Reggie Bush on those mid-2000s Saints teams, or James White on the Patriots.
Immediately, McCaffrey silenced the critics with 7 TDs and 1,086 all-purpose yards in his first season. In year 2, McCaffrey continued to improve, collecting 13 TDs and 1,965 all-purpose yards. As a straight-runner he proved he can rush up the middle, and as a receiver he proved he’s as valuable as the superstar WRs like Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, and Odell Beckham Jr. As a fantasy player, there’s no one better than McCaffrey. That was true in his first 2 years and it’s true now. But in 2019, McCaffrey has taken the next step to become an MVP-level player.
McCaffrey has 866 yards and 7 TDs in 5 games. Over a 16-game season at this rate, McCaffrey would have 2,771 all-purpose yards and 22 total TDs, which is just absurd. In Adrian Peterson’s 2012 MVP year, the last time a RB won the award, he had 2,314 total yards and 13 total TDs. McCaffrey is on pace to shatter those numbers, and his versatility as a receiver makes him even more valuable. Peterson, for example, only caught 1 TD that year. McCaffrey is the model for the modern 3-down back, and though other stars like Alvin Kamara of the Saints and Saquon Barkley of the Giants have similar skill-sets as McCaffrey, the Carolina RB has set himself a class above.
The real question is can McCaffrey overcome voter bias against RBs to win the MVP award? Well, a playoff spot is a box he must check. As good as he is, if the Panthers miss the playoffs there’s no chance for MVP consideration. Peterson’s Vikings made it in 2012, and if they hadn’t made it then Peyton Manning would have ran away with the award. Voters care about consistency too, so McCaffrey has to keep playing at this level for all 16 games. Against the Buccaneers in week 2, McCaffrey only had 53 total yards and didn’t find the end zone. One game like that can be forgiven, but if he has a couple more duds it’ll take him out of the discussion. QBs can withstand a poor stretch and still win the MVP, but a RB has no room for error.
The NFL isn’t crowded with MVP candidates. Last year the award came down to Saints QB Drew Brees and Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. In the end, Mahomes won because of his historic season, where he tossed 50 TDs and 5,000 yards in his first professional season. Mahomes looked like a shoe-in for the award again this year through 3 weeks; he tossed 10 TDs and 1,195 yards. At that pace, Mahomes may have broken his numbers from last year. But with just 1 TD in the last 2 weeks, the MVP field is wide open once again. McCaffrey stands a chance at this pace, but Mahomes isn’t his only competitor. Texans QB Deshaun Watson looks like a serious contender.
It’s easy to say McCaffrey and Watson are MVP threats after they each had one of their best games ever this past week. But Watson isn’t a one-week wonder. Watson has thrown for 1,364 yards and has 11 TDs to only 1 INT. The Texans are 3-2 and tied for first in the AFC South. Watson will have to carry the Texans to at least the 3rd overall seed to win the award, and with the Patriots and Chiefs already looking like the 1/2 seeds, Watson has a lot of work to do. If he and Mahomes finish with similar numbers, Mahomes would likely get the award based on team record.
Which brings us back to McCaffrey. The Panthers have to make the playoffs for McCaffrey to be in consideration for MVP, we already proved that. But luckily for him, his team just has to make the playoffs any way they can. In 2012, Adrian Peterson’s Vikings were a Wild Card team, but voters didn’t mind. They went with the historic RB that year, even though there was a QB with a better record having a historic year; Peyton Manning. That year, Manning tossed 37 TDs and 4,659 yards in his first season in Denver. Any other year, that’s a slam dunk to win MVP. His team also finished 13-3, good for a bye week in the AFC. The only way Peterson was able to overcome that was by having a historic season of his own, one in which he rushed for over 2,000 yards. McCaffrey won’t get to 2,000 just rushing the ball, but factoring in his receiving ability, McCaffrey could blow Peterson out of the water in all-purpose yards.
As I mentioned, McCaffrey will need to be in the playoffs to get MVP consideration. Can the Panthers get a playoff spot? Well, the good news is the NFC South is a weak division this year. The Saints are the runaway favorites but their star QB Drew Brees is still out for another month. If the Panthers can hold steady and keep pace they will have a chance to take the division outright. The Saints lead the division at 4-1 while the Panthers are 3-2, but the Panthers look more like a playoff team right now. For example, the Panthers have a +22 differential while the Saints are actually -1. It doesn’t mean everything but it means the Panthers are generally better at putting up points.
If the Saints do hold on, and Brees comes back strong, that may eliminate the Panthers’ chance to win their division. But that’s okay, because a division title isn’t necessary to get McCaffrey into the MVP discussion. As it stands, Carolina’s 3-2 record isn’t enough to get them in. But their +22 differential is 6th in the NFC, which suggests they are playing like a playoff team. 10 wins is probably the fewest amount that you can win and still make it, so the Panthers need to finish 7-4 over the final 11 games to get McCaffrey a chance at the MVP. Can they do that?
The Panthers and Buccaneers play in London Sunday morning, and Carolina has to win that one. The Buccaneers are an enigma, but a long plane ride means both teams will be sluggish. What’s the cure? Pound the ball with McCaffrey until the cows come home. After that, at 4-2, their schedule is tough. However, they have home games against the reeling Redskins and the Falcons. Those have to be wins as well. That would get them 6 wins, and we need to find 4 more. If they split the games with New Orleans and go into Atlanta and beat the Falcons, that’s 8 wins right there. The Titans game is tricky, but it’s at home and the Titans are a mess right now. Call it 9 wins.
So where’s the 10th? The Panthers have road games in Green Bay, San Francisco, and Indianapolis, which are all great teams. It would take beating one of those teams on the road for Carolina to clinch a playoff spot. I think beating the Packers is the most reasonable option, because the Packers run defense is horrendous. Through 5 weeks, the 4-1 Packers are 28/32 in run defense. And McCaffrey should have a field day. All the Panthers have to do is beat the bad teams on their schedule and steal a couple wins from the Saints and Packers. It can be done. Also McCaffrey will have to keep up this unprecedented workload. The MVP award becomes a fantasy if he just has a regular All-Pro year; he needs to make history. And 22 TDs on 2,700 yards may be enough.
It’s too early to tell how the MVP race will shake out. For all we know Aaron Rodgers could break out in November, or Mahomes will find his stroke and break 5,000 yards and 50 TDs again. The field of QBs is so strong that McCaffrey is climbing an uphill battle. But the fact that a RB is once again one of the 5 best players in the league is great, the same way Peterson’s 2012 campaign was great. While most teams gameplan around the Rodgers’ and Mahomes’ of the world, Carolina’s opponents have to find a way to stop the RB. And so far against McCaffrey that’s been impossible.
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