By: Nick LaPorte, 10/15/2019
With the 2 best teams in the American League locked in a best-of-seven series for the pennant, all bets are officially off. The Yankees wore down Zack Greinke in game 1, and won on the back of Gleybor Torres’ 5-RBI day. Though the Astros appeared to have a dominant 1-2-3 in their rotation, the Yankees got to Greinke and picked up right where they left off in game 2. Justin Verlander pitched well, but after an early 1-0 lead he was in trouble. Yankees RF Aaron Judge blasted a 2-run homer to take the lead, and things looked simple for the Yankees. Use your dominant bullpen to close it out, and take a 2-0 series lead back to the Bronx.
Well, that’s not what happened. James Paxton only lasted 2 1/3 innings, but reliever Chad Green bridged the gap for 2 innings. Adam Ottavino was next, and his mistake was a game-change. Ottavino hung a slider to George Springer and the game was tied 2-2. Now, the advantage still should have been with the Yankees. Their bullpen is their strength, and it seemed only a matter of time until one of their bats woke up and won them the game. It was a forgettable offensive day for the so-called Bronx Bombers though, as only Brett Gardner was able to have a 2-hit day, and it took extra innings for that to even happen. The game stretched into the 9th, and star closer Aroldis Chapman entered for New York.
The plan, as Yankees skipper Aaron Boone outlined, was to have Chapman ready to go 2 innings. He entered facing the bottom of the Astros lineup, and Boone was hoping Chapman would record 6 outs, and in Boone’s mind, keep it tied so his team could go ahead. Chapman struggled though, throwing 25 pitches and walking a batter. It removed the possibility of a 6-out appearance, and changed Boone’s entire plan for the game once it went extra innings. The Astros’ bullpen held the game tied after Verlander departed after 6 2/3 innings of 2-run ball, and it’s safe to say Joe Smith and Roberto Osuna were the unsung stars of the night for Houston.
After failing to score in the 10th inning, the Yankees turned to JA Happ with 2 men on base in the bottom of the 10th. Happ recorded the out, and the game went to the 11th. Edwin Encarnacion walked and Gardner singled, giving the Yankees their best chance in over an hour. But Gary Sanchez struck out, and the game went to the bottom of the 11th. Boone, now running out of effective pitchers to use, opted to leave Happ in the game. What happened next might have changed the fortune of the 2019 Astros.
On the first pitch of the inning, Carlos Correa belted a walkoff homer off Happ, and all of a sudden the series was tied 1-1. The Yankees, who looked like they were on the precipice of a 2-0 series lead with the next 3 potential games at home, were suddenly not in such a great position. Now, the Astros head to New York with momentum, and turn to superstar ace Gerrit Cole, who is 2-0 with a 0.57 ERA and 25 K’s in 2 starts this postseason. The Yankees will toss young Luis Severino, and while he’s no slouch, Cole and the Astros will he heavily favored. With rain on the horizon too, it’s quite possible the Astros will throw Cole, Verlander, and Greinke the next 3 games. The Yankees, as they say, have their work cut for them.
The reason Correa’s homer was so big is that it negates what should have been a huge win for New York. Knowing Cole is looming for 2/5 remaining games, this felt like one the Yankees had to win. Steal a game from Verlander and suddenly the series tips in your favor. Correa potentially quite literally swung the series back in Houston’s favor, because they can now toss Cole twice, and Verlander and Greinke once more each. The Yankees’ inability to steal a game from Verlander has disaster written all over it. In the end, it wasn’t necessarily Happ that cost the Yankees a chance at 2-0 but their bats. Houston’s bats haven’t exactly hit the cover off the ball either though.
It’s been a trying series offensively for both teams. Though the Yankees scored 7 in game 1, their only scoring play in game 2 was on a single home run. The Astros, who were scoreless in game 1, only scored 3 runs, and 2 of those were on solo homers. Pitching has been the story of the postseason, and teams in both the NLCS and ALCS have struggled to hit for the most part. Alex Bregman has been the Astros best hitter in the playoffs, but he’s only hitting .318 with 1 home run and 3 RBIs. Bregman has been held to 1-5 so far this series though, and has been held in check by the Yankees staff. Offense is down across the board this postseason, which would seemingly favor the Astros. But we’ve seen each team win a game while limiting the other team offensively, so who knows what the rest of the series may hold.
I will say this, and it’s that the Astros should win this series. They feature a better rotation, and their star players are more experienced in the playoffs. Their core of Bregman, Correa, Springer, and Jose Altuve have been to the ALCS or further each of the last 3 seasons, winning the World Series in 2017. The Yankees did make it in 2017, against these Astros, but the Yankees’ star players are somewhat different this time. Though Judge is a holdover, the team relied on Torres, DJ LeMahieu, and Gio Urshela for much of the season. And those 3 players, as good as they are, have a limited track record in playoff baseball.
Urshela broke into the big leagues in 2015 with the Indians for half a season, and amassed 6 homers and was worth exactly 0 WAR. He didn’t crack the big league roster again until 2017, where he hit 1 homer in 67 games and was a -0.7 WAR player. After a forgettable 19 games in Toronto last year, again a 0 WAR player, Urshela finally got his chance with the Yankees. Filling in for sophomore 3B Miguel Andujar, Urshela hit 21 homers in 132 games and was worth 3.1 WAR. To say he came out of nowhere would be an understatement; he had zero track record of good baseball even in the minors, and suddenly he was not only competent but a productive hitter for the Yankees. Still, this is his first postseason with real action, as he went 2/13 two years ago with the Indians. Urshela is hitting 5/20 this time around, but is just 2/8 against Astros pitching. Though he’s not the Yankees #1 option, his inexperience has been a hindrance versus the Astros.
Former Rockies 2B LeMahieu has more of a sample size, playing in the playoffs as a starter twice before this year. As a Rockie, LeMahieu went 3/20 in 2 years in the playoffs, and his bat went cold away from the friendly confines of hitter-paradise Coors Field. The Yankees had a need at 2B with injuries to Andujar and Didi Gregorius which pushed Torres and Urshela to the left side of the infield. LeMahieu responded with his best season as a pro, amassing 5.4 WAR with 26 homers, 11 more than his previous career high. LeMahieu also hit .318, which was higher than his .308 clip his last 3 years in Colorado. LeMahieu was everything the Yankees needed and more, with injuries to Andujar, Gregorius, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton at times throughout the season. LeMahieu is 7/23 this postseason, and 3/8 against the Astros. The Yankees need their leadoff man to set the table, and that’s a tall task staring down the barrel of Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, and Zack Greinke.
The missing puzzle piece for the Yankees appears to be 23-year old phenomenon Gleybor Torres, who had a 5-RBI night in game 1 of the ALCS. The Yankees young 2B/SS was a ROTY candidate in year one, and has incrementally improved in year two. His WAR went from 2.0 to 3.4, his homers increased from 24 to 38, and he even cut his K% roughly 5% down to 21.4. Torres gets all the buzz, even though statistically Judge was worth 1 WAR more in 42 fewer games, but in these playoffs Torres has been their guy. The Yankees acquired the middle infielder in the 2016 trade that sent closer Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs; though the Cubs are happy Chapman helped them win their first World Series in 108 years, the Yankees later re-signed Chapman. So, effectively, the Yankees acquired Torres for free, from their perspective. Torres can be their new Derek Jeter, and though that may seem like hyperbole, it’s the honest truth.
Jeter was the Yankees captain from his early days, and his playoff track record was nearly spotless. The Yankees last won the World Series in 2009, and Torres shares some characteristics with Jeter from that time. Though Torres, like Jeter, is not the best position player on his team, he’s the steady presence in the top of the lineup that gets the job done in big spots. Look no further than game 1 of the ALCS; Torres, not a member of that 2017 team, took matters into his own hands. Teammate Aaron Judge went 2-5, but it was Torres’ big homer and 5 RBIs that lead the daily news cycle. Torres is getting mentioned in the same breath as Yankee legend Mickey Mantle, and while the comparison isn’t totally fair, it shows us just how much of an aura the 23-year old has already acquired.
As I mentioned earlier, those 3 surprise stars are the key to the Yankees success in the ALCS, as they have been all season. Their track record is spotty in the playoffs, but so far at least LeMahieu and Torres look ready for the bright lights. The key for the Astros is much simpler, and it lies in the hands of Justin Verlander. Before I get to that though, let’s make one thing clear: I expect Gerrit Cole to dominate in his start tonight. He’s been untouched in the playoffs and really all year, and the Astros should lead the series 2-1 at the end of the evening. That leaves 4 potential games in the series, and this is one that could go the full seven. Cole will be ready for a game 7 if it gets there, and manager AJ Hinch might even jump the gun and start him on short rest if they face elimination in game 6. But let’s assume Cole wins his next 2 starts, because I’ll have to see proof he’s capable of allowing runs in the 2019 playoffs before I believe it. That means the Astros need one more win of the other 3 potential games. Enter Justin Verlander, the likely game 5 starter.
In his first start of the postseason, Verlander shut out the Rays over 7 innings, and his 8 K’s in that game are his most this postseason. Hinch started Verlander on short rest in game 4, and the results were less inspiring; 3 2/3 innings of 4-run ball. The Astros lost that game, but Verlander had a chance for redemption in game 2 of the ALCS. Instead of getting back on track, Verlander was touched for a 2-run homer by Aaron Judge, a swing that would’ve decided the game if not for George Springer. It’s unreasonable to ask Verlander to be as perfect as he was in the game 1 win over the Rays in the ALDS, but in the playoffs every run counts so much more. That homer could have been the difference in the game, and Verlander was bailed out by his teammates. That might not happen again, and game 5 in a series like this is always the swing game.
The Astros entered the playoffs with perhaps the most feared 3-headed monster of any playoff team. After all, who was going to win a series against them when their 3rd best starter is former Cy-Young Zack Greinke? But with Greinke looking shaky, and Verlander hit-or-miss, the onus has fallen on Cole to be perfect. It’s worked for the Astros so far, as Cole won 2 of the Astros 3 wins in the ALDS almost singlehandedly. They’ll ask him to do that again this series, with Cole going tonight and potentially game 6 or 7. But Verlander is the one who can swing the series; if Cole does what he can do, all Verlander has to do is beat the Yankees on Thursday.
If Verlander can do that, then the Astros will go back to the World Series. And if he can’t, the Bronx Bombers might be headed to their first World Series appearance since 2009. Whatever happens, the 2019 ALCS has the chance to be maybe the best playoff series of the last 2 seasons.
Game 3 is today at 4:08 EST on FS1, with Cole on the mound for the Astros and Severino on the mound for the Yankees.
Stats On Deck Blog 