Where Will Gerrit Cole Sign?

By: Nick LaPorte, 11/7.2019

The MLB season is over and as a result, the free agent class of 2019 has begun their quest to sign for exorbitant amounts of money. Gerrit Cole, the ace of the Astros pitching staff and likely AL Cy Young, is a free agent, and he headlines a weaker group that features few truly franchise changing players. Last year, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado led a stronger class that ended up seeing Harper, Machado, Craig Kimbrel, and Patrick Corbin pull in top tier money. After Cole, Nationals’ 3B Anthony Rendon is the only other surefire All-Star that is a free agent, with the exception of World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg, who just recently opted out. While Rendon will be a hot commodity, and could sign a deal worth $32.5 million or more (on par with Nolan Arenado), and Strasburg is a question mark on his contract demands and location, Cole is set to ink the biggest contract in history for a starting pitcher.

Cole is coming off his best season, where he accumulated 7.4 WAR and a 20-5 record. With a 2.50 ERA and a whopping 326 K’s, Cole is entering free agency at the peak of his powers. Cole was drafted 1st overall by the Pirates in 2011, and enjoyed moderate success in the NL. His best season in Pittsburgh came in 2015, when he went 19-8 and held an ERA of 2.60, grabbing 5.1 WAR. But Cole never reaches that level the next 2 years, and Houston smartly dealt for him in the final 2 years of his arbitration. The Astros reaped the benefit of that, winning 100+ games each of the last 2 seasons and using Cole’s underpaid salary as a vehicle to acquire more expensive players they usually wouldn’t get. Cole, though, is a Scott Boras client, and Boras always pushes his clients to make as much money as possible. Look no further than Max Scherzer, who signed a 7-year $210 million contract in 2015, the largest contract for a pitcher ever at that time.

Cole’s teammates Justin Verlander and Zach Greinke make $33-$34 million each on average, which is the highest AAV in the sport for a pitcher. Cole could break that this offseason though. The largest contract for a pitcher though was signed in 2016 by David Price; the Red Sox signed the LHP to a 7-year, $217 million deal. While Greinke and Verlander have since made a higher AAV, Price’s $217 million remains the largest contract value for a pitcher in MLB history. Like Price, Cole enters free agency as the top prize, meaning like Price, Cole can reset the market when he signs his new deal. Expect Cole to try to beat Greinke’s AAV and Price’s contract value in one fell swoop, and don’t be surprised if there are many suitors for the big right-gander.

First and foremost, the contract should look something like $7 years, $245-260 million. This would net Cole an average salary of between $35-$37 million per year, which again would be record-breaking, and the $245 million alone would shatter Price’s precious record for largest contract value ever for a pitcher. But Cole can set his sights on a contract in this neighborhood because he has the talent, experience, and relative youth (29 years old) that teams find attractive in free agency. Cole couldn’t have picked a better time to be up for a new deal. For example, Cole was undefeated after May 22nd over his final 20+ starts, and pitched like a superstar in all but one of his postseason starts. And with Houston’s season on the line, tied 2-2 with the Nationals in the World Series, Cole pitched a gem to secure the 3-2 series lead. The Astros ended up losing, but Cole was the opposite of the problem. It was actually possible that Cole would come out of the bullpen in game 7, but something interesting happened; manager AJ Hinch decided to use someone else in a pivotal moment, that ended up costing the Astros a title.

This bizarre decision that happened in game 7 may have officially ended any chance for Cole to stay in Houston. For one, the Astros traded for Greinke in July, which signaled that they had no intention of keeping Cole in 2020 and beyond. But when manager AJ Hinch decided to leave Cole in the bullpen in the 7th inning of game 7, Cole seemed to take offense. After all, though Cole seems singularly focused on making an absurd amount of money, this was probably the best chance he’ll ever have to win a ring. Hinch elected to use Will Harris instead, and as you know by now, the Nationals won the World Series. Cole could have pitched, as he was on 2 days rest, and an inning or two would’ve been enough for Cole to close out the championship. Cole, rightly disappointed, immediately distanced himself from the team that he was a member of just moments before.

After the game 7 loss, Cole was asked to speak to the media and his response was interesting. Cole said, “I’m not employed by the team,” and went on to say “I guess as a representative of myself …” and placed himself in front of a group of reporters. This reaction was surprising, because the Astros were just eliminated moments before the exchange. Even free agents usually take a moment to digest the end of their season before weighing their options. Take Anthony Rendon for example, who just participated in the Nationals championship parade even though he’s technically a free agent. Now, obviously a player that just won a championship is more likely to stay committed to the team, even if only for the parade. But Cole’s flip-of-a-switch reaction is unprecedented. Rarely do we see free agents exercise their freedom so quickly after the season is over. But if anyone is deserving of this special treatment, it’s Cole.

Now, officially able to sign with the team of his choice, Cole will have to weigh his options. Of course, Houston isn’t off the table. Cole in fact expressed some desire to stay put, but as I mentioned earlier, the Astros already owe Greinke and Verlander roughly $70 million combined per year. Another $35 million or more on top of that would make the Astros’ payroll almost too pitcher-centric. The Astros also have to set aside funds to pay their bats, such as Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa. While teams like the Yankees or Dodgers would not hesitate to foot the bill on such an expensive team, Houston may decide that Cole is simply too difficult to pay. The Greinke trade signifies they have at least prepared for the possibility that Cole goes elsewhere, and unless Cole takes a severe paycut (which isn’t happening), the Astros are likely content to let him go. But where will he go, if not Houston?

One team that seems like a surefire fit is his hometown Dodgers, who have always prided themselves on their superior pitching staff. Clayton Kershaw and Walker Beuhler are the staff co-aces, but Cole could slide right in as another super ace in their rotation. No team would want to face Kershaw, Beuhler, Cole, and Hyun-Jim Ryu in a 7-game series. The Dodgers fell to the Nationals in the NLDS, and they’ll be pushing to find a way back to the World Series. Beuhler was phenomenal in his 2 starts in the NLDS but Kershaw and Ryu were hittable, and longtime starter Rich Hill is probably… wait for it… over the hill. Cole could turn a strength into an even more successful strength. But the Dodgers aren’t the only LA team that will be bidding for Cole’s services.

In fact, LA’s “other” team, the Angels, is another team that badly needs Cole. The Angels have had the best player in baseball for years now in Mike Trout, but their inability to build around him has netted them just 1 playoff appearances (and zero playoff wins) in Trout’s 8 years. Their pitching staff is a mess, and has been for years. The last “ace” the Angels had was either CJ Wilson in 2013 or Gareth Richards in 2014, both of whom have been nowhere close to elite status for years. Cole could strengthen their staff and weaken division-rival Houston at the same time, which again is another motivator for the Angels to get the deal done. They just extended Trout for 12 years, making him baseball’s highest-paid player ever. Signing Cole would signify to Trout and the fans that they’re serious about contending for a title during Trout’s prime. The question is can they afford him after signing players like Albert Pujols and Justin Upton to serious deals, only to have both underperform in Anaheim.

Though Cole has ties to the West Coast, another easy fit is in New York, with the Yankees. After back-to-back 100-win seasons, the Yankees were on the doorstep of a World Series for the first time since 2009. Instead, they fell to the Astros in the ALCS, and their weakness is, you guessed it, their rotation. James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, and JA Happ are solid starters. But none of them is an ace, and on most teams not one of them would even be a #2 pitcher. Cole could solve that right away, and the Yankees can certainly afford him. Their young sluggers Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, and Gleybor Torres will need their own paydays eventually. But until then, the only truly high-paid player on their team right now is Giancarlo Stanton. And unlike low and mid-level markets, the Yankees have never been afraid to chase a free agent, no matter the cost. Just look at the deals they signed with Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia in the 2000s. In New York, it’s championship or nothing, and without an ace like Cole, it’ll be nothing.

The Yankees, Dodgers, and Angels are all willing to shell out the cash, as all three rank in the top-7 highest 2019 MLB payrolls. While it’s worked out better for the Dodgers and Yankees, and less for the Angels, let’s look at a couple mid-market teams with cash to spend. One extremely good fit is the Padres, who only spent $75 million total in 2019, and that’s with Manny Machado’s recent signing at $30 million per year. If the Padres dropped $35-$37 million per year on Cole, which is what he’ll expect, that would still make them only the 19th highest payroll. The Padres have 3 young starting pitchers that were all worth 2-2.5 WAR in 2019, in Chris Paddock, Eric Lauer, and Joey Lucchesi. Adding Cole would give them the ace they need, and still allow them to reap the benefits of young players on pre-free agent contracts. The Padres have been aggressive lately, adding Machado and 1B Eric Hosmer on multi-year deals the last two offseasons. Cole is the exact kind of player they should go after. And it helps that Cole has ties to Southern California, and the Padres have incredible young talent like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Hunter Renfroe, to name a few.

The 2018 NL-runner up Brewers are another mid-market team that should aggressively pursue Cole’s talents. The book on Milwaukee is a dominant bullpen, a decent offense, and a lack of quality starting pitching. While Brandon Woodruff is a good young pitcher, it’s tough to see his name listed as their Wild Card starter. Woodruff has acquainted himself well so far, and has handled his own in the playoffs. But wouldn’t Brewers fans feel much more comfortable with Gerrit Cole going in a 1-game do-or-die situation, as opposed to almost literally anyone? Isn’t Cole the missing piece, the ace that pushes them from fringe-playoff contender to NL Central favorites? Wouldn’t Cole be the workhorse they need to take some pressure off their already overworked bullpen? The Brewers have made consecutive playoff appearances, and pushed the Dodgers to 7 games in the 2018 NLCS, before falling to the champion Nationals in the NL Wild Card a month or so ago. The value added by Cole is well worth the investment, and it would still allow Milwaukee the flexibility to stay out of the top 10 highest payrolls in baseball. Cole isn’t the only starter out there Milwaukee should target, but he’s certainly the best one available.

These are only 5 teams, in the Dodgers, Angels, Yankees, Padres, and Brewers. You can bet that more teams will be bidding for Cole, and you can also bet that a surprise team will pop up and make themselves a player. The Nationals did it twice, winning the bidding war for Max Scherzer in 2015 and Patrick Corbin last year. The Red Sox did it in 2016, shelling out the cash to pay David Price, who would go on to be instrumental in their 2018 title run. Even the Cubs did it, signing Jon Lester in 2014, which led to them breaking their curse in 2016. Big free-agent signings don’t always work out. But the ones I’ve mentioned did lead to championships, and that’s something every team on this list is hungry for. Pay Cole what he wants, and worry about the rest later. If you do things right, you may find yourself a World Series champion not long from now.