By: Nick LaPorte, 11/15/2019
At the end of a boring, turnover-ridden, slog of a Thursday Night Football game, the Steelers got the ball back one more time. Mason Rudolph had thrown 4 interceptions in what was likely the worst game of his career, so far, and Cleveland’s Nick Chubb had run all over a good Steelers defense to the tune of 92 yards. Baker Mayfield led Cleveland to a convincing win, throwing for 2 TD’s and 193 yards. He wasn’t good, but he was good enough. As the Steelers took over with 1:40 left, the game was all but decided. In the closing moments of the game, Browns’ DE Myles Garrett made a serious mistake; he took the fallen helmet from Mason Rudolph and smacked him in the head with it.
No, seriously. Garrett swung Rudolph’s own helmet at him and made contact with his head, in an act of violence rarely seen on a football field. This goes beyond the usual violence we see on an NFL field, where guys take helmet-to-helmet regularly and occasionally get into small scuffles. This was borderline assault by Garrett, and Rudolph is the real victim here. I don’t know what he did to anger Garrett, if he even did anything. Maybe he did, maybe he didn’t. But this ridiculous response by Garrett is off limits in the NFL. This is even off limits in hockey, this would earn an NHL player at the very least an automatic game misconduct, and probably a suspension. So what did the NFL do?
The hammer came down, and Garrett is suspended indefinitely. He will miss at least the next 6 games, and has to prove to the NFL he has reformed before being allowed another chance. For Roger Goodell, this is a start. This kind of appropriate punishment by a Goodell is unprecedented. If Roger Goodell has shown us anything in his tenure, it’s that crimes are punished differently in a case-by-case basis. Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill have served minimum suspensions for their domestic violence, but Colin Kaepernick has been all but blackballed because he kneels during the national anthem. Vontaze Burfict has received chance after chance even though he’s proved he cannot stop hurting other players in games. Tom Brady, meanwhile, serves 4-game suspensions because he may have been “generally aware” that someone may have deflated a football a few PSI too many. And Josh Gordon misses seasons because of an antiquated marijuana policy. Goodell had a real chance to prove he’s not the dictator players see him as, but rather a competent commissioner that can actually handle player transgressions. It’s a fair punishment for a player that proved he’s too violent to be in the league right now.
As for the game, the Browns played fine. They’re on a 2-game win streak, and there’s a path for them to make the playoffs. The AFC is so weak that the Raiders look like a surefire playoff team, which is strange, because they would be a 3rd or 4th place team in any NFC division. But the collective ineptitude of the AFC leaves the door open for the Browns to make a playoff push. At 4-6, they still trail the Bills, Raiders, Colts, Steelers, Titans, and Jaguars. But they’re only 1.5 games back from the 6 seed, and they face the Dolphins, Steelers, Bengals, and Cardinals the next 4 weeks, and finish against the Ravens and Bengals. There’s a path to 9-7, and that might be enough. But Garrett was their best player, and certainly their best defender. Garrett’s idiotic response in hitting Rudolph with a helmet probably tanked the Browns’ season.
It was a forgettable game punctuated by rememberable violence, but now we can look ahead to another slate of games on Sunday, which hopefully don’t include a player beating his opponent in the head with a helmet. Here are my 3 best bets for the weekend:
1. PANTHERS (-4) OVER Falcons
This line isn’t nearly high enough, and I think the Falcons are riding too high off a win against the Saints. While the Falcons looked impressive last week, they’re a 2-win team with injuries and bad coaching. Meanwhile, they face perhaps the best RB in the league in Christian McCaffrey. While the Falcons bottled up Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray last week, before their bye they allowed 159 rushing yards to the Seahawks. If Chris Carson and Richard Penny can combine for 145 yards, McCaffrey will feast. Fantasy owners of McCaffrey should rejoice once again, this is going to be a big week for him.
I despise this Falcons roster, and I think Dan Quinn is an awful Coach. Players may like him, but their offense is too talented to be so bad. Matt Ryan was the MVP of the league just 3 years ago, and now he’s a borderline Andy Dalton-level player. Julio Jones might be the best WR of his generation, and he never finds the end zone. Their stud RB, Devonta Freeman, is also injured. There’s not a lot to like about the Falcons. Especially since their defense always sucks and Quinn is supposed to be a good defensive coach. The Panthers will cover the 4 easily, expect a final score in the neighborhood of 28-13.
2. Texans (+4) OVER RAVENS
Like Russell Wilson, Texans QB Deshaun Watson is one of those comeback kings. He’s facing another MVP candidate in Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, but Watson has been another superstar QB joining the ranks of Jackson, Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers on playoff teams. Watson rarely loses big, and the Texans have the kind of offense that can match up with Jackson and the Ravens. I think the public likes the Ravens a little too much, especially after they thrashed the Patriots 2 weeks ago. The Texans are inconsistent, but they’re in the same stratosphere as other AFC great teams like the Ravens, Patriots, and Chiefs.
On the other end, the Ravens are due for a letdown. They surprised us all with that 37-20 win against the Patriots, and then obliterated the lowly Bengals last week. I’ll be up front, I have Jackson on a fantasy team. I have the Ravens D/ST on another team. It benefits me to have the Ravens win, and win big. But I like the Texans to cover this spread, if not win outright. Even if it comes down to a late FG either way, you’ll be fine with the Texans +4.
3. Jaguars (+2.5) OVER COLTS
With Nick Foles back, this line seems about right. The Colts get Jacoby Brissett back, which is huge, because he was managing the game nicely in the first half of the year. But Foles is why you should bet the Jaguars. I’m as big a fan of Minshew as anyone, but Foles absolutely makes the Jaguars better this season. He’s a Super Bowl MVP, and he’s always played well in November-February. Foles looked great early in Jacksonville, and it was only one drive, but he’s a nice upgrade for the Jaguars.
I also don’t trust the Colts kicking situation, nor do I trust their injuries. Brissett has been gimpy, and TY Hilton can’t stay on the feel. Marlon Mack, another fantasy disappointment of mine, rarely cracks 10 points. Meanwhile the Jaguars have looked decent defensively all year, and Foles should stabilize their offense. Take the Jaguars plus the points and don’t be shocked when they win outright.
More to come from Stats on Deck in the weeks to come, with the NFL playoffs in sight and the NBA gearing up. Stay tuned!
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