By: Nick LaPorte, 12/4/2019
Free agency has already begun in baseball but today marked two significant free agent signings, both in the NL East. Cole Hamels signed a 1-year, $18 million deal with the Braves, and Zack Wheeler inked a 5-year, $118 million contract ($23.6 million per season). This comes after a flurry of moves by the Braves, notably signing closer Will Smith in late November. The NL East was a tight division for most of 2019, with big free agent signings like Bryce Harper (Phillies), Patrick Corbin (Nationals), and Dallas Keuchel (Braves) making waves last year. The Nationals, in case you’ve been under a rock, won the World Series. This division has produced the NL champion in both 2015 and 2019, and it’s fair to think it could once again represent the NL in the World Series. The NL East is once again going to be competitive.
This division more than any other is defined by its starting rotations. The Nationals have had the strongest rotation these past few years, and their 2019 staff was outstanding. Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, and Anibal Sanchez combined helped the Nationals secure a Wild Card spot, and ultimately win the World Series. Down 3-2 to the Astros, the Nationals turned to their big 3 to carry them to victory. Strasburg put the team on his back in game 6, nearly pitching a complete game. Then in game 7, a hobbled Scherzer and Corbin secured 24/27 required outs to win the whole thing. In other words, the NL East demands a good rotation, or you can’t hang with the top teams. That’s why it makes sense for the Phillies and Braves to load up; to beat the best you have to be the best.
The Mets, as frustrating as they can be, also feature a stellar rotation. Back-to-back Cy Young Jacob deGrom and flamethrower Noah Syndergaard headline their rotation, and they added Marcus Stroman to mitigate the potential loss of Zack Wheeler. Well, Wheeler is now with the Phillies, who have a good rotation of their own. With former Cy Young Jake Arrieta and Aaron Nola, the Phillies have once again spent big to address an area of concern. While Wheeler isn’t on the same level as some of these other names, he has potential to be a good #3 on their team, and maybe a change of scenery is exactly what he needs. The more curious team, however, is the Braves.
After missing the playoffs from 2014-2017, the Braves won the East in consecutive seasons. Their rotation is young, mostly, but it features two promising pitchers in Mike Soroka and Mike Foltynewicz. With the addition of Hamels, the Braves have a veteran with plenty of playoff experience. Unfortunately for the Braves, they will likely lose Dallas Keuchel, who was their de facto #1 for much of the second half of the season. Hamels is a downgrade from Keuchel, and neither are really a true #1, and that speaks to the crux of the issue I have with the Braves and Phillies this offseason. They’re adding complementary pieces, which is smart, but what exactly are they complementing?
When the Nationals signed Patrick Corbin last year, they did so because their rotational foundation was so strong. Scherzer is elite, a three-time Cy Young and perhaps the best RHP in baseball. Strasburg, now after a dominant playoff run and a World Series MVP to boot, is a #1 on just about every other team in baseball. Corbin, who is miles ahead of Wheeler and Hamels anyway, was now a borderline ace masquerading as the #3. In fact, ask any Nationals fan and they’ll tell you who the team’s ace was from June-September: Corbin. Now, Strasburg and Scherzer are objectively better. But Corbin was signed for precisely that reason; he was the supporting piece that made a good rotation great. Wheeler and Hamels don’t do that.
Strasburg, along with Astros ace Gerrit Cole, are still free agents. And while I hope/expect the Nationals to keep Strasburg, the fact of the matter is it’s foolish to judge free agent moves before all the ink is dry. Maybe the Braves or Phillies have a move in the works, whether that’s signing someone like Cole or making a trade for a legitimate #1. But adding Wheeler and Hamels to the Phillies and Braves respectively seems like desperation to me. The Phillies touted themselves NL East champions in April, before finishing the season 81-81 and firing their manager. The Braves won the division again, but were thoroughly embarrassed in the NLDS. Both teams are desperate to prove they belong at the top of the division.
As it stands now, here is how I would rank the relevant starting pitchers in the NL East:
1. Max Scherzer, Nationals
2. Jacob deGrom, Mets
3. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
4. Patrick Corbin, Nationals
5. Aaron Nola, Phillies
6. Noah Syndergaard, Mets
7. Marcus Stroman, Mets
8. Mike Soroka, Braves
9. Cole Hamels, Braves
10. Zack Wheeler, Phillies
11. Jake Arrieta, Phillies
Anibal Sanchez, Nationals
13. Mike Foltynewicz, Braves
14. Everyone else
This isn’t in any way to disparage what the Braves and Phillies have done. But objectively, unless they land someone like Cole, they still don’t have the best rotation in the division. And I would argue the Mets rotation is better than either the Phillies’ or Braves’ when healthy. A rotation isn’t everything but the Nationals just showed us how important a dominant pitching staff can be. For the Nationals, it led to a World Series. I don’t think that will be the case in Atlanta or Philadelphia.
But the fact of the matter is the NL East is still the safe haven for great starting pitching. While playoff hopeful teams like the Angels, Yankees, Rockies, and many others struggle to find 1-2 legitimate frontline starting pitchers, the NL East has some of the game’s best. I imagine the race to first place will once again be a great fight, and no matter how you slice it, the Phillies and Braves made their teams better today. I’m just not sure it’s enough to move the needle in the direction of playoff success.
Stats On Deck Blog 