By: Nick LaPorte, 12/31/2019
The year, and decade, will be over in a few hours. The NFL has turned in a phenomenal regular season in the final year of this decade, and one of the surprising stories of the season is the Titans, owners of a 9-7 record… again. But this year’s 9-7 feels a lot different, and the biggest reason is veteran QB Ryan Tannehill. The Titans have stuck with Marcus Mariota since drafting him 5 seasons ago #2 overall, but this year the Titans had Tannehill in the wings. The Dolphins, who committed to a mass exodus of players in the offseason, traded the former first-round QB Tannehill to the Titans in March for a couple late-round draft picks.
Sitting at 2-3 and trailing the Broncos 13-0 in the third quarter after a Mariota turnover, the Titans turned in desperation to Tannehill. While they lost the game, falling to 2-4, Tannehill showed some promise in that appearance, completing 13/16 passes for 144 yards. It wasn’t a dramatic late game comeback, and to be honest Tannehill didn’t even look all that great, but it was the turning point for the Titans. Head coach Mike Vrabel saw enough to hand the keys on offense over to Tannehill and the veteran QB responded with back to back wins. Tannehill threw a pair of TD passes in a win against the Chargers, tossed 3 more in a victory at home against the Buccaneers. In just about 10 quarters of play, Tannehill had thrown 5 TDs and just 1 INT. A loss to Carolina followed, but Tannehill still scored 2 TDs.
In a season that looked lost for the Titans, suddenly Ryan Tannehill had his team 4-5 but certainly in the playoff picture. The Titans then upset the Chiefs, in a thrilling 35-32 win in which the Titans scored 15 points in the final frame to win. Again Tannehill threw a pair of TDs, and star RB Derrick Henry added a pair himself. The Titans headed into the bye week 5-5, but 3-1 since Tannehill took over. It wasn’t a complete domination, but turning to Tannehill turned their season around. Tannehill would throw for a pair and run for a pair of TDs after the bye week against the Jaguars, and throw 2 more against the Colts to bring the Titans to 7-5. Another masterpiece against the Raiders, with Tannehill throwing 3 more TDs, had the Titans 8-5 and perhaps the most dangerous non-Ravens team in the AFC.
The Titans entered week 15 with a home game against the Texans and with a realistic shot to win the AFC South after all. Tannehill still played well, scoring all 3 of the Titans’ TDs. But for only the second time this season, the Titans lost a game that Tannehill started. This all but dashed their hopes of winning the division, but didn’t rule them out as a Wild Card. While the Bills had locked up the 5-seed seemingly in October, the 6th spot was up for grabs. Although the Steelers has the inside track to make the playoffs, a week 16 loss to the Jets opened the door for the Titans. Now, if they won their finale in Houston, they were the 6-seed, no holds barred.
Tannehill tossed another 2 TDs and Derrick Henry ran for 3 more, en route to the title for most rushing yards this year. At 9-7, the Titans made the playoffs, and due to some dolphins messing around in Foxborough, MA, the Patriots fell to the 3-seed, meaning they play host to the Titans this Saturday on Wild Card weekend. This is significant for a number of reasons, maybe most importantly the fact that the Patriots haven’t played on Wild Card weekend since 2009. Yes, they’re the Patriots. Yes, they’ve won 6 Super Bowls in 20 seasons. Yes, they still have the greatest QB and greatest coach in NFL history. But the time might be ripe for the Titans to make a run.
In 2009, the Patriots lost to the Ravens in round one, after a dominant Ravens run game pounded the Patriots right out of the playoffs. And this Titans team, like that Ravens team, has a dominant rushing attack. Derrick Henry, as I mentioned, was the NFL’s leading rusher this year, and his 18 combined TDs this year had him among the elite skill players in all of football. Tannehill’s 22 passing TDs and 4 rushing TDs made him look like an older, somewhat less athletic but extremely dangerous, version of Lamar Jackson. (Let me be clear though that no one touches Lamar this year, he’s the runaway MVP.). But Tannehill was so good in limited time that I don’t think it’s insulting to say Tannehill showed flashes of MVP-level play. Simply put, any team should be terrified of facing Tannehill and the Titans this time of the year.
Now back to the Patriots, owners of a 12-4 record and another division crown. As good as that looks on paper, the Patriots have struggled to move the ball this year. QB Tom Brady is perhaps the best to ever play the sport, but he’s looked old at times. After star TE Rob Gronkowski retired, Brady has had difficulty finding trustworthy pass catchers. Julian Edelman, the reigning Super Bowl MVP, is still productive, but he’s not able to flourish as the #1 WR. The Patriots tried to fill the gap in productivity with star WR Antonio Brown, but cut him from the team after legal issues. Josh Gordon, former Browns Pro Bowl WR, was released by the Patriots after struggling to make a connection with Brady. And while RB Sony Michel has run the ball better of late, his complete ineptitude in the passing game makes it even harder for Brady to succeed.
Since 2011, when Brady and Gronk first connected, the Patriots have always run a TE-heavy offense. When Gronk was on the field, Brady would always find him enough times per game to win. Look no further than last year’s Super Bowl. While Edelman won the MVP, when the chips were down and Brady needed to make a big play, he turned to his reliable TE Gronkowski. It lead to a championship. There’s no safety blanket like that for Brady this year, with Gronk retired, especially since Edelman is dealing with a hospital’s worth of injuries. Brady can’t do it himself, he needs help on offense. And last week’s loss to the Dolphins is a worrying sign of things to come in New England.
Brady finished the game 16/29 for 221 yards, 2 TDs, and an important INT. More concerning was their defense though, which gave up 27 points to a bad Dolphins team. With a first-round bye on the line, the Patriots just needed to not give up a TD in the final 3 minutes of the game. The Patriots defense made their money defending the pass all season, but against a middling Dolphins offense, they were powerless. This is not a good sign for them against the Titans, who are strong in both their passing and rushing attack. I’ll never count the Patriots out until they’re out, but they may be running into the wrong team at the wrong time.
Or for the Titans, they may be running into the right team at the right time. A couple months ago Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg recalled that when his team was in the playoffs in years past, they had run into a buzz saw, a team that was hot at the right time and good enough to go all the way. Strasburg wondered if the Nationals could be 2019’s buzz saw, the team that was hot at the right time and good enough to win it all. Well, the Nationals did just that, going from a Wild Card game all the way to World Champions. The NFL is different, but the one-game playoff allows for more variance. If the Patriots and Titans played a best 2/3 for example, the Patriots would probably find a way to win 2. They have a better coach and they have the know-how. The Titans are hot, but longer playoff series usually mean the best teams win it all; look no further than the NBA, where a team seeded lower than 3 in its conference hasn’t won a championship in over a decade.
But the Titans have the perfect storm. They have momentum, winning essentially a playoff game week 17 to earn their spot. They have a QB that led the NFL in passer rating in 2019, and the NFL’s leading RB. Rookie WR AJ Brown already looks like a superstar, and their passing attack has been unlocked by Tannehill, who’s been more than willing to sling it all over the field. They match up well with the Patriots, and are unafraid of going on the road to win. If we’re just talking about which team has looked the best overall week-to-week since Tannehill took over, only the Ravens and Chiefs would be ahead of the Titans in the AFC. It isn’t unreasonable to think the Titans could win a playoff game against a flawed Patriots team, and go on a run from there.
Waiting the Titans would be the Ravens, owners of a 12-game win streak, the best running attack in NFL history, and the likely MVP Lamar Jackson. If they somehow beat the Ravens, who look primed for their first Super Bowl run since 2012, the Chiefs would probably be waiting in Arrowhead to end the Titans’ Cinderella story. But the Titans did already beat the Chiefs once, and Andy Reid’s team isn’t famous for their playoff success. While it’s more likely that the Ravens, Chiefs, or Patriots represent the AFC in the big game, these Titans are certainly good enough to be in the conversation.
It would have to start with a prime time win Saturday night in Foxborough, against the defending champions and the game’s best head coach. It would mean beating Tom Brady, who wasn’t lost in a round before the AFC championship game since 2010. It would require Tannehill continuing his run of improbable greatness, and Derrick Henry running the ball down the throat of the Patriots defense. But it can happen, the stars can align for a team of destiny sometimes where a lower seeded team goes the distance. The Nationals did it this year, as did the St Louis Blues in the NHL. This decade alone the Packers, Ravens, and Giants all won the Super Bowl as a 4-seed or lower. It takes the entire team to play their best football for a one-month stretch, and a little luck along the way.
For the Titans, this could be their year. Or they could get annihilated by the Patriots. Either way, the Titans get a chance to control their destiny, and take Tennessee back to the Super Bowl.
Stats On Deck Blog 