By: Nick LaPorte, 1/3/2020
I would like to wish a Happy New Year to the Stats on Deck readers, and for a treat we have a full slate of NFL playoff games this weekend. Tom Brady and the Patriots are playing on Wild Card weekend for the first time in a decade, and the Titans look like the right team to take them out. (Read more on that here). As for the Bills vs. Texans game, I don’t have a great read on it. Deshaun Watson is the better QB by a wide margin, but the Bills defense looks trustworthy. The winner of this game is headed to Baltimore or Kansas City, so I doubt this game will matter much. However, I trust Watson in a big game, and think he can do enough to win on Saturday as long as his WRs play the whole game.
My pick: Texans over Bills 20-13
On to the NFC, where we have 2 extremely fun matchups on Sunday. The early game, maybe surprisingly since it’s Drew Brees looking for playoff revenge, is the Saints hosting the Vikings in the 3/6 matchup. Brees is on an absolute tear, and the Saints have looked like the NFC’s best team for weeks now. They lost on a last-second FG to the 49ers a few weeks ago, but played more than well enough to beat the NFC’s 1-seed that day. And besides a no-show once against the Falcons this year, the Saints look like world beaters. Their defense is solid, their QB is a hall-of-famer playing at an extremely high level still, and WR Michael Thomas set the record for receptions in a season. That’s all without star RB Alvin Kamara contributing much for the first 3/4 of the season, but even Kamara looked like a superstar again in the final 2 games of 2019. Much like the last 2 seasons, the Saints look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
On the other side is the Vikings, owners of the 6-seed, although you could argue they were the 4th or 5th best team in the NFC. Minnesota’s defense was back in form this year under HC Mike Zimmer, known for his ability to command a dominant defense. The Vikings managed to secure a playoff spot despite losing star WR Adam Thielen and RB Dalvin Cook for multiple games this year, and both are healthy for round 1. They also survived two agonizing losses to Green Bay, their prime divisional rival. Most analysts sat there for 3.5 months saying the Vikings were actually better than the Packers despite the standings, but then Aaron Rodgers and the Packers embarrassed the Vikings in week 16 which put that argument to bed, hopefully.
I don’t know if the Vikings are an elite team or just a good Wild Card, because they fluctuate so often. QB Kirk Cousins started the season feuding with both of his stud WRs, but then looked like a fringe MVP for the following 2.5 months. With a new offense shadow-run by Gary Kubiak, the Vikings look like a legitimate threat when Kirk Cousins is running play-action. With Cook back in the lineup, an extremely versatile back, that will open up Cousins’ ability to stretch the field with play-action even more. The Saints have a great defensive backfield but Cousins will have his chance to prove himself on the big stage. Cousins has not won a playoff game in his career, mostly in Washington, and missed the playoffs altogether in 2018. It’s more meme than statistical evidence at this point but Cousins is notably bad in prime time games, and is 0-9 on Monday Night Football. Which, for the record, doesn’t matter this weekend. He’s playing a 1PM playoff game against a superior team. He may lose and it may be primarily his fault, but let’s not write the Vikings euology before we see the game, ok.
I won’t go too deep into the Minneapolis Miracle rematch idea here but it’s true that these two teams played in 2017, and with the Saints winning with just seconds left, WR Stefon Diggs caught a pass down the sideline and took it to the house to walk off and send the Vikings to the NFC Championship game. They lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles, but I guarantee Drew Brees and HC Sean Payton haven’t forgotten that mistake. As Stannis Baratheon once said, “I cannot forget that. I cannot forgive that.” I imagine Brees feels the same way. This is his chance to slay some playoff demons and set up a Brees/Rodgers matchup in round 2; that game could be legendary. I won’t write off the resilient Vikings, but in this case give me the team with the better coach and QB… aka the Saints.
My pick: Saints over Vikings 31-24
Now over to Lincoln Financial Field, where the Eagles will host a playoff game for the first time since that NFC championship game I just mentioned in 2017. The Eagles went 2-0 in those playoffs at home and 3-0 overall, and then went 1-1 last season in road games in Chicago and then New Orleans. HC Doug Pederson’s 4-1 playoff record is impressive, especially considering his team was the underdog in every game. The Eagles thrive in spots like this, and Pederson has a way of dragging his teams to the absolute maximum amount of their talent. This is a coach that beat the GOAT coach and QB with a backup QB at the helm. Pederson’s Eagles were injured some severely this year they had a line to get in the medical tent, and yet here they are once again with a ticket to the postseason.
If there’s a bad matchup for them though it’s the Seahawks, a team that just like the Eagles has suffered some catastrophic injuries. In fact, the final month of the season saw the Seahawks RB depth so decimated they brought back Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin from retirement. And though the Seahawks lost the regular season finale to the 49ers, they have a way of staying persistently competitive. Russell Wilson rarely loses by more than a score, and almost never loses 2 games in a row. Sitting on a 2-game losing streak, I would be a fool to pick against Wilson, who by the way might be the MVP runner up. Wilson’s playoff career hasn’t taken off since those back-to-back Super Bowl appearances early in the decade, but Wilson is too dangerous to bet against.
For the Eagles, QB Carson Wentz is playing in his first playoff game, after failing to stay healthy the last 2 seasons into January. Wentz not only started all 16 games for the Eagles, he also became the first player to throw for 4,000 passing yards without a 1,000 yard receiver. While his overall game looks weaker than his excellent 2017 campaign, in which he was on track to win MVP before a season-ending injury, he’s shown some grit and toughness in his game that makes the Eagles hard to bet against. With their backs up against the wall, they won 2 must-win games to close the year for the right to host this game. I like the Seahawks more, but either team winning would not shock me.
My pick: Seahawks over Eagles 28-21
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