By: Nick LaPorte, 1/8/2020
Another week, another slate of NFL playoff games. While Tom Brady and Drew Brees didn’t make it to the Divisional Round this year, there are a variety of great players left competing for the chance to make a Conference Championship game (or more). This week also holds extra intrigue because it’s the playoff debut of Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers, as well as last year’s MVP Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs and this year’s likely MVP Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Aaron Rodgers and the win-ugly Packers also host a playoff game this week, and they look like a much safer pick to win the NFC without the Saints in the way.
Here I’ll rank the matchups in reverse order in my determination of which is the best or most intriguing game, and with respect to my playing of Madden 19 with a semi-updated roster, which game I’m most interested in playing through on my Xbox.
4. Minnesota Vikings @ San Francisco 49ers
Well, I don’t mean to outright disrespect Kirk Cousins but this game doesn’t have the same intrigue that a potential Seahawks vs 49ers matchup would have had. The Vikings beat the Saints in overtime, and they won because Cousins was outstanding in overtime. The Saints were a legitimately great team too, so again this is no disrespect. But watching the 49ers this year makes me think they will be able to game plan enough to make this a potential blowout. With their now reasonably healthy defensive line, the 49ers will commit to stopping Dalvin Cook in the running games, which makes Cousins’ job a lot more difficult.
No one, except maybe Jared Goff in those rare instances when he’s having a good game, runs more play-action than the Vikings. Cousins excels at this because the small shifts by the defense open up the field for Cousins, who can find an open man without having to worry about making 3-5 reads from the pocket. For the Vikings, the ability to run the ball is more important than anything; if they can get an early lead their entire team looks like a contender. Cook’s ability to run the ball can chew up the clock, and Cousins can target WRs Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen in the passing game. The Vikings defense is also very aggressive, and when they play with a lead they can take chances and win the turnover battle. Look no further than the Wild Card game; though the Saints came back to tie it eventually, the Vikings played their brand of football and it worked.
The 49ers are just so damn good though, and it’s hard to see a world in which they don’t at least make the NFC Conference Championship Game. That being said, this is Garoppolo’s first playoff game ever as a starter, and it’s Kyle Shanahan’s first playoff appearance as a Head Coach. The NFL is unforgiving; just because the 49ers looked like the best team in the NFC for 3.5 months doesn’t mean they automatically make the Super Bowl. The #1 doesn’t always make it out of this round, and sometimes playoff experience can mean more than the seeding. If this was the Seahawks or Saints I would like them as an upset, but I just don’t see it from Minnesota. I expect the 49ers to be able to send pressure and make Cousins uncomfortable, and if the 49ers can create a turnover or two they will run the Vikings right out of Santa Clara.
3. Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
Another 6-seed headed to a 1-seed after a first round upset. This game means instead of seeing a rematch of the Texans and Ravens, we’ll see the surging Titans fly to Baltimore to try and stop Lamar Jackson and company. I have bad news for the Titans; no one can stop Lamar Jackson. Since a week 4 loss to the Browns, which I think we are all still scratching our heads about, the Ravens haven’t lost. There have been close calls and one-score games, but Jackson simply finds a way to win each week. Most weeks, that way to win has been to run, run, run, run, and run some more until the Ravens are so far ahead they bring in the backups. That could happen again this weekend, as the Ravens have consistently shown they are an incredible all around team.
While Jackson and the offense get a huge amount of credit, rightfully so, the defense has improved week to week and heading into the postseason only the Patriots and 49ers had looked better. Since trading for CB Marcus Peters the Ravens are playing aggressive football defensively, allowing their strong secondary to play a lot of man coverage and allow DE Matthew Judon and his front 7 mates to rush the passer. This isn’t the 2001 Ravens, or even the 2012 Ravens, but their defense is good enough to win them games alone. Add in Jackson’s penchant for electricity on offense and the Ravens look nearly unbeatable.
Having said that, Jackson already had a taste of the postseason last year, and to be honest he looked vulnerable in a loss to the Chargers. That was a different Ravens team and a different Lamar Jackson, but I don’t get why people are acting like the Ravens are all but confirmed Super Bowl champions. I always like to see it before I believe it with potential superstar QBs. For Mahomes last year, who had a historic season, I wanted that proof in the playoffs that he could get it done. And he proved to me he’s good enough to be a champion; he played better than Tom Brady in the AFCCG but lost because of his defense. Lamar has to do the same thing; show me you bring your A-game in January. If he does that this week, I’ll feel much more comfortable saying he’s a truly elite QB.
The recipe for a Titans upset is the same recipe they’ve followed for 3 months now; a steady diet of Derrick Henry runs and occasional deep passes on play-action from Ryan Tannehill. In round 1, Tannehill only tossed for about 80 yards, and that won’t fly against the Ravens. With the Ravens’ ability to score early and often, the Titans have to trust that Tannehill can keep them in the game. The Titans defense will try to limit the Ravens to field goals, but no one has had much success in that area; the Ravens are the only team this year to score TDs on >50% of their drives. Ideally the Titans would force the Ravens to kick the ball, much as they did to New England. But Baltimore’s offense is much more potent than New England’s was, and the Titans can’t think they’ll be able to run as much if they’re playing from behind. Ryan Tannehill had the best passer rating in the NFL; it’s not a perfect stat but it’s time for Mike Vrabel to trust his QB. Having said all of that, the Ravens will win comfortably.
2. Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
Some are calling this the Mitch Trubisky Bowl, because this game features the 2 superstar QBs the Bears could have taken instead of Trubisky. Well, Mitch is in Chicago after a season of zero growth and a missed playoff opportunity, but the Chiefs and Texans are here and one of them will play in the AFCCG. On one side, you have the Chiefs, hosting the game with their famous home-field advantage, and a QB that when healthy is probably the best football player on the planet. Chiefs coach Andy Reid has done a phenomenal job in his career, reaching 3 NFCCGs in Philly and the AFCCG last year in Kansas City. If not for a bad penalty late in OT, the Chiefs would have been in the Super Bowl. Their team is better this year too, as hard as that is to believe.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo took over a defense that was powerless to stop opposing QBs, and over the last 2 months since they got healthy, the Chiefs look as good as anyone on that side of the ball. The Texans already have trouble blocking for Watson regularly, and that problem will only be exposed further against this revamped Chiefs pass rush. Watson has a gift for making plays happen under pressure, but unfortunately for him he’s playing perhaps the only QB that’s better than him at creating from nothing. Mahomes is Mahomes, and that means he’s really good. So good, in fact, that we all panicked when he didn’t throw for 50 TDs and 5,000 yards this year. Guess what? That’s insane! He still had a great year, despite missing 2.5 games.
The Texans went scoreless in the first half against the Bills, and it took overtime to beat a Bills team with a bad QB. Mahomes is too good to let the Texans get away with that. Their only hope is to control the clock and keep Mahomes off the field. It’s also bad news for the Texans that the Chiefs did in fact get the bye week, because Andy Reid is historically unbeatable with an extra week to prepare. Mahomes too gets an extra week of rest to heal up his various small injuries. I won’t count the Texans out for the simple fact that Deshaun Watson is their QB, and he’s been proving people wrong since winning a championship with Clemson. But the Chiefs are going to win, and if you want my opinion, they may win the whole damn thing this year.
1. Seahawks @ Packers
Another year, another Seahawks vs Packers matchup. This is the 6th straight season these non division-rivals will play, and as the Ringer’s Kevin Clark puts it, these games always get really weird. There was the Fail Mary, where the Seahawks won on a blown call by the replacement referees. There was the NFC Championship Game in 2014, a 28-22 victory for the Seahawks who trailed 16-0 at halftime. The Seahawks won the matchup last year while the Packers won the previous 3 following that choke job in the NFCCG in 2014. The constants in this game are Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson, the QBs. They’ve combined to win 1 Super Bowl each since 2010, and both have their sights set on another one. Their fortune has reversed however since those mid 2010s meetings.
Rodgers was famously a multiple MVP award winner but lacked enough talent around him, especially on defense, to win another ring. Wilson, on the other hand, benefited greatly from playing with the Legion of Boom, the staunch defense that helped the Seahawks make back-to-back Super Bowls. Now, it’s the Packers with a good defense and running game and the Seahawks with… just Wilson. Yes, Rodgers looked like just a good QB and not the elite MVP we’ve come to know. But when these teams get together, weird shit happens. Rarely does one team blow out the other and Russell Wilson doesn’t lose by 2 scores period.
The Packers are riding a nice win streak after losing a pair of California games, but they play up or down to the competition frequently. The Packers can beat the Vikings soundly on one night and let the Redskins hang with them until the end the very next. Maybe it’s Rodgers, maybe it’s the coaching, or maybe the Packers are just not as good as their record. Yes, 13-3 is 13-3, no one is saying they stole wins or anything (except Lions fans). But it’s fair to say they may not be as good as your regular 13-win club. DVOA expected the Packers would win about 10 games based on their schedule, and they outperformed that. That’s a good thing, and their fans should be proud. Winning ugly is still winning. But these teams are closer than it appears, especially with a magician like Wilson on the other end. I expect the Packers to win ugly again, in the neighborhood of 20-17.
Thanks for reading and have fun watching football this week! And don’t forget the NCAAF championship is on the horizon.
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