By: Nick LaPorte, 2/2/2021
We continue this week at Stats on Deck diving deep into the upcoming Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Since sports gambling is now legal in my state, and because it is a huge part of the Super Bowl, I decided to look into some of my favorite bets. I’m not saying bet all of these, I’m just saying take a look and see what you think. All odds are per FanDuel Sportsbook.
“The ‘Safe’ Bets That Aren’t Fun But Have a Good Chance of Improving Your Bank Account”
Chiefs -3 (-120)
Pay $120 to win $100. This is boring because it’s a good bet. The Chiefs are the better team. They’re only -120 favorites, that’s strange. Pay some extra money to get good odds. Easy enough to understand. Chiefs only have to win by 4 or more to hit this one. They beat the 49ers last year, arguably a better team than this year’s Bucs, by 11.
Travis Kelce Receiving Yards OVER 98.5 (-110)
This one is also pretty simple; when Kelce catches a lot of passes the Chiefs win. He and Mahomes are locked in like John Stockton and Karl Malone were in the 90s, except Mahomes and Kelce have already won a ring (sorry Utah!). Whether the Chiefs win or not you just need Kelce to do what he does best; carve up the middle of the field and get 99 yards or more.
Any Touchdown/Match Winner: Travis Kelce/Chiefs (+135)
This is negligence. Kelce scores in almost every playoff game, sometimes twice or more. In the red zone Mahomes gets tunnel vision for his tight end. This is kind of a combination of the other 2 “safe” bets. If you think the Chiefs will win (I do) and that Kelce is going to score (seems very likely) why not take the +135 odds? Come on.
“These Bets Are Worth a Look but Ultimately May Lose You Money”
Tom Brady 350+ yards (+290)
Brady has gone over this total in 3 Super Bowls, and one of them was in a loss. Whether you think the Bucs can win or not, Brady will be throwing A LOT. Why not bet on the best QB of all time to do what he does best; show up in a big game. This is the best offense Brady has been on since 2007 looking at the group around him: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Cameron Brate, Leonard Fournette, and his BFF Rob Gronkowski. Brady will have plenty of chances to break 350+ yards. Take the +290 and laugh your way to the bank.
Anytime TD scorer Rob Gronkowski (+230)
Gronk has 3 lifetime TDs in the Super Bowl and his best game of the year came against the Chiefs when these two teams met up in the fall. If Gronk has been “taking it easy” most of the year, this would be the perfect time to explode for a big day. And he’s Brady’s original TD magnet: no one scored at a higher clip as a receiver in his prime than Gronk. Take the plus odds and bet on familiarity and comfortability. Brady loves throwing TDs to Gronk when the game is on the line.
Winning Margin Chiefs by 11-20 (+480)
The Chiefs won last year by 11 points. I see this as a 2-TD kind of win. That’s covered in this 10-point band. Forget about laying money on -3, say screw it and bet on Mahomes to turn this into a semi-blowout. Plus the best part is the Chiefs can be up by anywhere from 18-27 points and if Brady converts a garbage time TD this one cashes. Take the +480 and sprinkle a little money here and say the Chiefs will win… by a lot… but not too much.
“These Bets Will Not Happen… Unless?”
First TD scorer: Tom Brady (+2500)
This would have to be a running or receiving TD. Can’t you picture an early 3rd and goal or 4th and goal from the 1 yard line? Brady takes the snap and sneaks the tip of the football over the goal line? And you hit +2500 odds and laugh at all your friends? I’ll admit it’s a long shot. But +2500 is pretty enticing. Why not?
To Score 3+ TDs: Tyreek Hill (+1800)
Last time these teams met this happened. Lets not overcomplicate it. Also Hill has “breakout” games every few weeks. While he could just as easily be a small factor on Sunday, it’s possible Mahomes blows the top off the defense a few times and Tyreek runs his way to the end zone 3 times. +1800 odds for something that has literally happened this season seems like a freebie. But go with this one at your own risk and be ready to hate Tyreek Hill when he finishes the game with 2 catches for 26 yards.
Alternate Total: Over 80.5 points (+1100)
Root for offense. All it takes is a 41-40 kind of game for this to hit. 49-34 in favor of the Chiefs isn’t crazy. Mahomes throws 7 TDs and Brady makes it respectable? What’s more fun than 11 TDs combined in a Super Bowl? NOTHING!
I also feel obligated to say 2 things:
1. Bet at your own risk
2. If you have a gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER or go to www.1800gamble.net
Here’s to a good one!
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