By: Nick LaPorte, 2/10/23
In what was perhaps the most exciting trade deadline in NBA history, the landscape of the league has shifted dramatically. Or whatever aphorism works for you. Point is, the West is an absolute bloodbath after the Suns and Mavericks each grabbed a Nets superstar, and the Lakers did just enough to be a player down the stretch… maybe.
In this post I’m giving some quick analysis on the Lakers big move, as well as the ramifications of the Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant trades. Also, because no one took the keyboard away, I give some thoughts on what the West will look like as we close out the year, and I spent some time (rightfully) criticizing some of the teams that did not do enough. Long story short: the Suns should be favorited to come out of the West with KD in tow, but there’s 6 legit players in the West (plus whatever is going on with the Lakers). Good stuff.
Mavericks receive: Kyrie Irving, Markieff Morris
Nets receive: Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, 2029 1st Rounder, 2 2nd-rounders
This trade screams “lose-lose” to me, and the biggest reason is I do not believe it solves anything really for either team. Yes, Kyrie is an All-Star, and the Mavericks are feeling pressure to surround superstar Luka Doncic with talent, lest he walk away for nothing in a few years. But Kyrie is not the answer. I believe they will be a 2nd round exit at best, and Kyrie will walk in the offseason (probably to LA) for nothing.
For the Nets, this is a disaster. DFS and Dinwiddie are playoff-rotation pieces, but with Irving (and now Kevin Durant) gone, what use are they? The Nets have amassed a good collection of assets after bungling the Durant/Irving/James Harden superteam, but in the end they are left with no discernable future All-Star talent, and a bunch of likely mid-20s 1st-round picks.
Grade: C+ for both teams
Lakers receive: D’angelo Russell, Jared Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley
Jazz receive: Russell Westbrook, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Damien Jones, Lakers 2027 1st rounder
Timberwolves receive: Mike Conley, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, 3 2nd rounders
I actually like this for the Lakers and the Timberwolves a lot. The Lakers add 3 guys who can not only play next to Lebron and Anthony Davis, but they retain their coveted 2029 1st-rounder and still get some cap flexibility in the summer (maybe to sign Kyrie?). The Timberwolves turn an expiring Russell into a more complementary point-guard that has had success playing with Rudy Gobert already.
The only team that has me shaking my head here is the Jazz. Yes, you got a good 1st-rounder and cap flexibility. But only 1 pick to take on Westbrook and give up Conley and Vanderbilt? Why? Seems to me this is a rare not-great trade for Danny Ainge, the Utah GM who just pulled off the biggest robbery ever last summer unloading Rudy Gobert for 5 1st-rounders.
Grade: B+ for Lakers, B for Timberwolves, D for Jazz
Suns receive: Kevin Durant, TJ Warren
Nets receive: Mikail Bridges, Cam Johnson, Jae Crowder (later traded), 4 first-rounders and a 2028 swap
The Suns pulled it off! They retain their core of Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton while only losing Bridges and Johnson, as well as all the picks. This makes the Suns instant favorites in the West, something that was not true yesterday. It is a steep price but when he is healthy, Kevin Durant is one of the true difference-makers, and could be the guy to get them to the mountaintop finally.
For Brooklyn, they got an appropriate haul and I will grade them as such. But they could not have mismanaged their assets worse in the Sean Marks era; Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, and James Harden were all under contract with pieces around them not 14 months ago. They won a single playoff series together and only played a total of 16 games (13-3 record). They could have won championships, as in multiple. Instead the Nets reset to a slightly worse spot than they were in prior to 2020.
Grade: A for Suns, B for Nets
And now my general ramblings:
As it stands, the Suns trade moved the needle the most. They should be thought of now as favorites to win the West. That being said, they are not flawless. Chris Paul is showing his age and is not the player he was even 2 years ago when he Suns led 2-0 in the Finals (before a signature choke job). Devin Booker has been dealing with nagging injuries all year, and KD has not been the picture of health going back to his last year in Golden State. Ayton also has failed to make a leap since getting the rookie max extension, and still plays way too soft for a big his size. They also have glaring issues defensively, trading away their 2 best wing defenders and adding marginal defenders in Durant and Warren.
The Lakers did enough to convince me they can get to the play-in and maybe even make the playoffs; there is enough talent between Russell, Beasley, and Vanderbilt that they can survive some of the minutes when Lebron is off the floor, and may even be positioned to survive the next 2 inevitable medium-length Davis injuries. It is not a fix all, and they are not contenders. But this 5 they have now is enough to scare anyone, and the combination of defense and shooting they can throw together is more reminiscent of their 2020 bubble-run than Western rivals were probably hoping for.
The wild card is Dallas; Luka took them to the Western Finals with scraps but Kyrie is a legit star, something he has never played with. The ceiling is higher; Kyrie has shown capable of being a #2 on a champion, even if it was 7 years ago. Luka is getting to that point that Lebron was at for much of his 2010s dominance, in that you cannot count him out ever in a playoff round. But between the Suns new look, the Nuggets dominance with Jokic, and the Warriors who are lingering, it is hard to imagine this roster getting out of the West.
The Warriors were not able to pull off a trade for OG Anuonoby, which is a mistake since he fits the bill of exactly what they needed on the wing. With Steph out for the foreseeable future, the Warriors run the risk of falling down into the play-in. The Grizzlies meanwhile improved on the fringes, adding Luke Kennard and shedding Danny Green, but they were another team linked to OG and they did not find a way to get him. Same issue with the Pelicans; those 2 teams have great young talent but are sitting on their assets too much to be a serious threat. As the Lakers showed in 2020, sometimes you have to take a leap and get another star in the building, otherwise like the 2015-2020 Celtics, you’re left with too many assets and zero rings to show for it.
The only other West team I failed to mention much is Denver. Jokic is probably the best player in the league right now but they have spent too many assets already top surround him with a mediocre supporting cast. Before today I saw them as true threats to win the West. But I do not see a way they get through Phoenix, Golden State, or Dallas as currently constructed. Maybe this summer they get serious and find a way to get the Joker some real help.
What does all of this mean? Maybe nothing, maybe everything. The NBA once again delivers drama, even amidst Super Bowl week. Speaking of, I’m backing Mahomes until they prove his leg has been amputated. The Eagles have had a cupcake schedule and the Buck stops here. Thanks for reading and good luck to the gamblers.
Credit to Sports Illustrated for the image, and myself for the analysis. And ESPN for the stats although I carried the weight on that one too.
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