By: Nick LaPorte, 2/13/2023
It was the highest scoring Super Bowl since the Nick Foles masterpiece in 2017, and I think I speak for NFL fans around the country when I say thank goodness. The last few Super Bowls have had their moments; Mahomes with a late comeback to beat the 49ers, Brady’s GOAT epilogue cherry on top, and the surprise Rams/Bengals entertaining underdog combination. But we’ve been starving for an offensive show, and we got one on Sunday night.
Mahomes fought through a high-ankle sprain suffered early in the Divisional Round, one that was re-aggravated before halftime today. Assuming they gave him the Aaron Rodgers “muh knee” medicine at half, it didn’t exactly slow him down on his way to 3 TDs and his 2nd Super Bowl MVP. Prop bettors like myself were dismayed at his yardage, south of 200 yards in a true “WTF” starling, but overall it came down to Mahomes with the ball late and like his last Super Bowl win, Mahomes did enough to secure the victory.
This is an important win for Mahomes, as he’s now separated himself from some of the all-timers. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers both won 1 Super Bowl in 1 attempt. Mahomes is now 2 for 3. He also ties other contemporaries like Ben Roethlesberger and the Manning brothers. No one has a GOOD chance to catch up to Tom Brady, he of the 7 Super Bowl rings and every piece of the GOAT resume, but Mahomes is now closer than anyone this side of Joe Montana. 2 rings matters a lot, especially when there could be 10 more years or more of contention with Mahomes at QB. And to do this after losing his #1 WR, Tyreek Hill, is even more special. No one doubted the Chiefs, sorry Travis Kelce, but no one really had them as being better without Hill.
It was a another comeback win for Mahomes, as the Chiefs trailed at half before taking control in a strong 4th quarter. Kadarius Toney, the mid-season acquisition, set them up for Mahomes’ 3rd TD with a great punt return. Juju Smith-Schuster was a steady hand on 3rd down, and Travis Kelce was the best receiver on the field tonight over and over again. Isaiah Pacheco added some angry runs to seal the deal. The controversy came on a 3rd down late in field goal range, when the referees whistled a defensive holding to give the Chiefs a 1st down and essentially end the Eagles season. It was an ugly way for the NFL season to essentially end, highlighting what we hate about the sport in a game that had illustrated everything the fans normally love. The bicameral game, as Anthony Hopkins’ Westworld character would put it.
CJ Gardner-Johnson, the accused, admitted that he did hold on to Juju’s jersey, which lessens the frustration some. If the player called for the holding says, essentially, “I agree with the call,” what should we do as fans? The matter is settled, as far as all those in the NFL are concerned. The crux of this issue though is there are moments on each and every play that could constitute a call, whether it is a slight hold by a lineman, a finger that grazes a facemask, or a defensive holding/pass interference call where there is contact between the receiver and defensive player almost every time. If the referees called EVERY penalty, games would never end. But that is part of the assumed deal we all enter into when we watch this sport; officiating may be a little shaky at times but usually it will not negatively impact the outcome of a game. And here, it was the right call. He did hold his jersey, and the ref spotted it and did what he was trained to do. We as fans just hate to see a game end because of a blown whistle, instead of something that the players actually affect (like a game-sealing catch for a first down, or a late drive by the Eagles to tie/win the game that we were robbed of).
I wanted to talk first about 3 of my favorite bets that Stats on Deck was proud to cash on, and believe me when I tell you we put in the work. Did we share these bets with the public? No. Sorry about that. But if you caught my last post, I said to back the Chiefs straight up on the moneyline, and if you took that advice you 100% made money. Anyway, my 3 favorite bets:
1. Jalen Hurts First Points Scored +900
A little different than the usual First Touchdown scorer, this one baked in a little extra value if you were betting that a TD would be scored before a FG, which I did. At first it looked like Kenneth Gainwell would ruin the party, but Hurts barreled in for his first of 3 rushing TDs to cash in a nice payout. I had this one as well as an either/or with Hurts and Travis Kelce, so all-in-all a very exciting first TD for the bank account. Kind of wish I threw some on Hurts First TD/Kelce 2nd TD combination but I’ll be happy with the win.
2. Both Teams to Score in Every Quarter +750
You can think of this as an 8-leg parlay but what it meant was that the game was guaranteed to be exciting. And it sure was! A 38-35 final and really no close calls; both teams touched the ball in every quarter and put points on the board with relative ease. This is the kind of prop bet you place with intentions of seeing a good game, then when it does happen, you’re double-happy because you got an exciting game and your bank account has more than it did before.
3. Will There Be a Lead Change in the Last 1:00 of 4th Quarter (Yes) +750
Again, felt good about this one because I knew if the Eagles were winning, Mahomes would be the right guy to back here. It technically changed from tie (35-35) to Chiefs 38-35, but that is still a lead change and it still paid out nicely. Thank goodness the Chiefs waited until late to kick that game-winner; if CJGJ does not commit a hold, the Cheifs kick with about 1:50 to go, and then it would be on the Eagles to get that late lead-change. Everything worked out as it was supposed to.
Honorable mention: Mahomes Exactly 3 Passing TDs +360. It just felt right; his yardage maybe did not get where we wanted but the exactly 3 TDs more than made up for it. Running TDs are no fun Patty!
One bet I wish I had done was Any Player to have an Octopus (score the TD and the 2-point on the same drive) at +1300; the last TD of the game was the Octopus as Jalen Hurts scored the rushing TD and then ran in the 2-point himself. It would have been a great payout, obviously, but it did not make the cut in my bet-slip and I am okay with that. Think of it this way; it took basically 6 offensive TDs to get there and you still needed to not mess up the 2-point attempt, and have it be the same guy who had just scored. If Hurts threw a pass to Goedert for example, and hit my 4-guy Anytime TD parlay, it would have ruined the Octopus. Still a little salty that Hurts essentially ignored his teammates in the red zone each time.
This Super Bowl run by the Eagles has also given me time to reflect as a person and I admit I owe an apology to Jalen Hurts. After his first 2 years I was not convinced he could ever be an elite QB; an elite runner, yes, but not a passer. Hist first 2 years were more similar to Justin Fields than to some of the great young QBs like Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Josh Allen (and Mahomes of course). But Jalen silenced the critics triumphantly. His passing was outstanding all season, tossing 3700 yards and 22 TDs in 15 games as a starter. He really surpassed expectations in the Super Bowl itself, throwing for 304 yards with no interceptions. It is time to think about him on the same tier as Burrow, and maybe even slightly above Josh Allen and Justin Herbert, who may have prettier passing attributes but have no playoffs success similar to Jalen’s. Jalen was able to do what Lamar Jackson could not, and that is show his dual-threat game is a winning-style in the post-season. It may look way different than Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, but Jalen’s game and Jalen’s play-style is a winning formula. With as much talent as they have, Jalen is surrounded by a great cast of supporting characters and it would not shock me to see him in the big game again within the next 2-3 years.
I’ll close out the NFL season with some last thoughts: Derek Carr and Aaron Rodgers will (likely) be moving teams, and we can be sure the Bills, Bengals, and Chargers will be beefing up to try to stake their claim in the AFC. None of it will matter as long as Mahomes is able to stand upright and think clearly (read into this that he was likely concussed playing the Bengals last January); until they prove it, Mahomes is the man to beat. They took an All-Pro WR away from him and he played better. His ankle was held together by painkillers and duct tape and he still won all 3 playoff games. They said his line would get him killed in the Super Bowl and he was not sacked even once. With Tom Brady retiring, there is a new boogeyman in the NFL, a Michael Myers “kill him dead” character that is never out of a game, just as ask Bills fans. If he is alive and there is time on the clock, the inevitability of Mahomes makes him the best and most important player in the NFL for years to come, and until proven otherwise, he is going to rack up championship rings like he’s the new generation’s Tom Brady.
Images courtesy of NFL.com
Stats courtesy of ESPN.com
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