By: Nick LaPorte, 2/12/2020
This weekend brings us the NBA All-Star game, which means the unofficial start of the second half of the season is just days away. This is the time when contenders separate themselves from the pack; the Bucks are 46-7 and Giannis looks primed for a title run, the Lakers have the best record in the West, and the Rockets just traded away every player taller than 6’7″ on their team. Yes, this season has gotten weird. As it stands, I see about 10 teams that have a realistic chance at winning a ring in 2020. Below I will rank them in my modified power rankings:
Just missing the cut are 2 really fun teams, the Mavericks and Pacers. The Pacers could leap into the next category if Victor Oladipo figures out how to be an All-Star again. But until then they’re not a serious threat. The Mavericks look like a surefire playoff team, but they’ve dealt with injuries to Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, their 2 franchise cornerstones. They’re probably a year away from true contention, and the Dwight Powell injury makes me even more sure of that.
Pretenders
10. Miami Heat, 35-18, 4th EAST
I think many of us underestimated Jimmy Butler’s potential. We knew he was an All-Star: he’d been one in Chicago, Minnesota, and should have made it last year in Philadelphia. The problem was, we thought, he couldn’t handle a locker room. After all, didn’t he publicly announce how much contempt he had for teammates Karl Towns and Andrew Wiggins in Minnesota? Didn’t Jimmy go on TV to demand a trade, for the 2nd time? Isn’t this the same guy who turned down a max contract with the loaded 76ers to be “the guy” in Miami? How wrong I admit I was about Butler.
Since going to South Beach in a sign-and-trade Butler has transformed the Heat. Butler plays as one of their primary ball handlers and leads the league in free-throws. His frenetic style and bruising physicality has spread through Miami’s young core: rookies Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro are already rotation players. And Bam Adebayo, first time All-Star and the closest thing to prime Draymond Green since… prime Draymond Green, has become a star. The Heat made a trade for Andre Iguodala at the deadline, and that could raise their ceiling a bit. But I think this team is still clearly the 4th or 5th best in the East. Still, if things break right they could make a run at the Finals.
9. Boston Celtics, 37-16, 3rd EAST
It has been a strange few years for the Celtics. Isaiah Thomas led them to the 2nd round in 2016-2017. Then they swapped him for Kyrie Irving, who was injured in 2017-2018 when the Celtics lost in game 7 of the ECF to Lebron’s Cavaliers. Last year the Celtics looked stacked on paper, but were embarrassed by the Bucks in the second round. So, the Celtics let Irving walk and signed Kemba Walker. While Irving might be marginally more skilled, Walker’s leadership has been a difference-maker in Boston. It’s amazing how many more games you’ll win when the team likes playing with each other.
Their two “Jays”, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, have taken a big step in the right direction. Tatum made his first All-Star appearance, alongside Walker, and Brown wasn’t far off. The three of them combined average a shade under 65 PPG. It’s a great group of guys, including former All-Star Gordon Hayward (who looks healthy lately), defensive wizard Marcus Smart, and a few intriguing young guys like Daniel Theis, Brad Wanamaker, Robert “The Timelord” Williams, not to mention their coach Brad Stevens who may have surpassed Popovich as the best coach in the NBA. The only problem is they are still a piece short: they have no one to guard the Pascal Siakam, Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis type players. It means they’re really not contending for a ring but again, if things worked out right…
8. Houston Rockets, 32-20, 5th WEST
Goodbye Clint Capela and hello small-ball! The Rockets are done with your traditional positional constraints, and your 7-footers, and shooting any shot that’s not a 3 or a layup. Under Daryl Morey, the Rockets have defined this era of pace and space, setting records with their offenses and seeing James Harden blossom into an MVP front-runner year after year. While the Russell Westbrook trade has flipped from disastrous to… intriguing, the Rockets find themselves in worse position than they have been in for over 3 years. Never once in the past 3 seasons did they finish lower than 3rd in the West.
Are they a legit contender? Sort of. They’ve advanced to the second round, at minimum, the last 3 seasons and were a historically bad shooting night away from beating the Warriors and likely winning it all in 2018. Still, their roster is much weaker than in years past. But the core of Harden, PJ Tucker, and Eric Gordon is still intact. And Westbrook, like him or not, is a legit All-Star averaging >30 PPG in this calendar year. It would mean a few heavy upsets but the Rockets are absolutely contending for the title.
Contenders
7. Denver Nuggets, 38-16, 2nd WEST
Yes, this is disrespectful from me. How could I rank the #2 seed in the West, a historically stronger conference, this low? Well, it’s actually kind of disingenuous because I like their team a lot. I think Michael Malone is one of the best coaches in the sport; he consistently drags great minutes out of their bench, and he’s navigated injuries and Jokic conditioning issues for the last 2 years. This team was a couple weird minutes away from reaching the WCF last year, and they look better. So why so low?
In the end, I trust the remaining 5 teams’ star players more. Jokic is as good as anyone, and if Giannis wasn’t tearing the league a new one, Jokic would be an MVP front-runner. But he doesn’t have that crucial secondary star. Jamal Murray is good, and he’s had his moments, but the consistency isn’t there. Say you’re down 2-1 in a series with the Lakers, and Anthony Davis is keeping Jokic somewhat in check. Do you trust Murray to take over and tie the series? He’s had big playoff moments, but he’s also been awful. I need way more consistency before I ride with Murray and the Nuggets. But Jokic alone makes them a contender.
6. Philadelphia 76ers, 33-21, 5th EAST
Why are the 76ers so high on this list? I just disrespected the Nuggets, who have earned a top-2 seed, and turn around and reward an underperforming group like Philly? What’s wrong with me? Well, as it turns out, I’ve never been a believer in this roster. I said to anyone who would listen that Al Horford didn’t fit and Tobias Harris was overpaid. But I also agreed that their 5-man lineup of Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Harris, Horford, and Josh Richardson cohoe match anyone. Weren’t the 76ers just a bounce (or 4) away from the ECF last year? Didn’t they add Horford to combat Giannis in a playoff series down the road? Why are these guys not better?
Their ceiling is the Finale but their floor is a first-round exit. The remaining 4 teams I expect to make it to, at the very least, the 2nd round. I also expect the Nuggets to do so. But the 76ers could flame out. They’re as bad as the Knicks on the road, their 2 stars don’t fit together, and they are by Simmons’ own admission, “soft.” But they also can be great; they destroyed the Bucks on Christmas Day. They fought the Raptors harder then anyone last year. And if it all clicks at the right time, they could represent the East. More likely they’re the 2019 Celtics and someone, maybe even Simmons or Embiid, is on their way out this July.
5. Utah Jazz, 35-18, 4th WEST
Again I would like to stress I am ranking these teams based on their chances to win the title. It’s why the 76ers and the Jazz, (and later the Clippers) are ranked higher than Denver despite Denver’s superior record. This Jazz team started slow, and Mike Conley has been a disaster. They turned it around in time, unlike the Trail Blazers, to hang on to home-court in the first round for now. Currently they would play Houston in a rematch from last year’s first round and Houston was better in that one. But this Jazz team is taking the next step.
Donovan Mitchell burst on the scene in the 2018 playoffs but it’s taken him time to really become a star. Finally, he’s ascended to All-Star status and teammate 2-time DPOY Rudy Gobert has joined him. They also have Bojan Bogdanovich, a capable secondary creator who’s had great success in the past with the Wizards and the Pacers in the playoffs. The big question mark is Mike Conley. He was supposed to elevate them to the elite status; I wrote about it last summer and believed Conley would make them one of the 2-3 favorites. He has time, but if he doesn’t turn it around the Jazz may be stuck as a 2nd round team. Their ceiling is higher than any previous team though, I think.
4. Toronto Raptors, 40-14, 2nd EAST
Don’t lie, you’re shocked that the Raptors are still this good. They lost Kawhi Leonard, who literally won Finals MVP with the Raptors last year, and they’re still a top-2 seed. They play hard on defense, they pass well, they shoot well, and they have a variety of plug-and-play options as they’ve navigated through a million injuries. Kyle Lowry is perfectly transitioning to the “old man PG” role in time for Fred Van Vleet to pick up right where he left off in the Finals. They’ve also had nice contributions from young players like OG Anuonoby and Terrance Davis. But the story is Pascal Siakam.
Siakam has completely assumed control of the power vacuum left by Leonard’s departure. Siakam was named an All-Star for the first time and if not for a nagging injury, would be in discussions for the non-Giannis MVP award. The Raptors just found a way to keep chugging along. Who’s to say they can’t win it again, and defend their title? When Jordan left the Bulls the first time, Pippen led them to the 2nd round and nearly an ECF. Why can’t Siakam do the same thing? If things go their way they could absolutely represent the East. And Siakam is one of the few stars that could, on the right night, match up with Giannis in a big game.
Favorites
3. LA Clippers, 37-16, 3rd WEST
When the Clippers landed Kawhi Leonard and Paul George last summer, we knew they would be good. After all, didn’t Leonard just plug into a good roster and take them to a championship in Toronto? This Clippers roster is talented, and George is a better sidekick than anyone in Toronto last year. We expected the Clippers to be title contenders: in fact, some sports books had them as the odds-on favorite to win it all. The impressive runs by the Lakers and Bucks have cast some doubt on the viability of the Clippers but they are still damn good.
This roster, without Leonard or George last year, took the healthy loaded Warriors to 6 games in the first round. They also just added Marcus Morris at the deadline, a secondary shot-creator that will allow Leonard and George to continue to manage their loads. The Clippers have always had their eyes ahead; why worry about the regular season when you have a championship pedigree? The funny part is that no, the Clippers don’t have a championship pedigree. Leonard does; he’s a 2-time Finals MVP. But no other significant player on their roster has even played in a Finals game. Their ceiling is higher than anyone, but their apathy for the regular season bumps them below the other 2.
2. Milwaukee Bucks, 46-7, 1st EAST
I am once again disrespectful of a great team. This Milwaukee team is on pace to crack 70 wins, something only the 1996 Bulls and 2016 Warriors were able to do. Giannis is Giannis, and he’s even better this year than he was in his MVP run last year. They led the Raptors 2-0 in the ECF last year. Why shouldn’t they be the #1 team? After all, with the Warriors depleted and the reigning champion Raptors missing the best player from that series, why should the Bucks be #2? The reason is I don’t think I trust them yet. I trust them to win 60+ games a year and make the ECF, assuming health. That’s all well and good. But until Giannis and co. show me they can really make a Finals run, I’ll have my doubts.
Even so, the Bucks have the best team and the best player. The supporting cast around Giannis lost Malcom Brogdon but gained Wes Matthews and Marvin Williams, both veterans that can provide minutes in the playoffs. Also Khris Middleton, he who signed the max contract extension last summer, has improved yet again. He’s an All-Star for the second time, and his per 36 minutes numbers are shockingly good. The Bucks may just run through the East in general, unless the 76ers or Celtics figure something out. But there is one team that has a better chance of winning it all.
1. LA Lakers, 40-12, 1st WEST
And now we come to Lebron, the 3-time champion and arguably greatest basketball player in history, and certainly in his generation. After missing the playoffs last year Lebron loaded up, acquiring Anthony Davis from the Pelicans and signing veterans like Danny Green, Avery Bradley, and the surprisingly useful Dwight Howard. It’s netted them a 1-seed and a chance to get Lebron that coveted 4th championship, something he’s been searching for since that magical run in 2016. Until further notice, Lebron is the best player in the NBA. Giannis is making his case, and probably in the regular season the Greek Freak is untouchable. But come playoff time, it’s Lebron.
The Lakers have their issues. There’s no reliable secondary playmaker, meaning Rajon Rondo gets a lot of minutes. The forward depth is paper-thin, and Kyle Kuzma seems to be “fitting out” to steal a Cleveland-era Lebron term. But the Lakers play suffocating defense and have 2 of the best 6-7 players in the sport. Only the Clippers can make that case as well, and Lebron + AD is better than anything you or I could dream up. While I have them as favorites, it won’t shock me if any one of these teams lifts the trophy up in June. This season has led to more parity than we’ve had in about a decade, and we can confidently go into April and beyond knowing one thing: we don’t know anything. And I think that’s a good thing in the NBA.
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