By: Nick LaPorte, 1/23/2020
Last night, Zion Williamson made his debut for the Pelicans at home against the Spurs, and the coverage was unlike anything we’ve seen since the early 2000s with Lebron. There was a dedicated “Zion-cam” on ESPN. They played Zion’s McDonald’s All-American game and college highlights in the hours leading up to the game. The Pelicans issued more than 4x the normal amount of press credentials for media. Every play that Zion touched the ball was replayed over and over again. The sideline reporters asked both coaches and players about how Zion was coping with the transition to the NBA. And for the first 3 quarters it was… not much to write home about. A couple buckets, a dazzling assist to Brandon Ingram, a bunch of ugly turnovers, and an overall lack of cohesion or confidence. Then, it happened.
In the span of 3 minutes, Zion showed us a glimpse of what he can be; running fast breaks with reckless abandon, intense on-ball defense, the ability to read and react to his own missed shot (he put it up and in before the defender realized it was blocked), and a 3-point stroke that even Steph Curry could be jealous of. Zion went 4-4 from three in the game, to go along with his 22 points on 11 shots. Zion went to the free throw line 4 times (making half), and grabbed 7 rebounds in his 18 minutes. Coach Alvin Gentry ignored the “We want Zion” chants in the Smoothie King Arena, preferring caution on the management of his budding superstar. There will be many times in the near future when Zion plays 30+ minutes and is allowed to roam free like he did in college, impacting the game with his dazzling defense and bullying offensive game. But for now, all we got was a taste. Ja Morant probably has the rookie of the year award locked up, but Zion showed (in 3 minutes no less) the kind of potential that warrants the #1 pick and Lebron-level press coverage.
This was an important step for the Pelicans and Zion in his rehabilitation from a knee injury, which sidelined him for nearly the first 3 months of the season. While other rookies like Morant, former Duke teammates RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish, and the other lottery picks have taken their lumps as rookies, Zion is just getting his first real game action since March Madness 10 months ago. Yes, he played in Summer League and preseason. But it had to feel great for Zion to just be out on a court again in a meaningful game. Zion and Lonzo Ball, who assisted all of Zion’s three-pointers, were the only Pelicans starters with a positive +/-. As the season goes on, and the Pelicans make a playoff push, Zion could prove right away why so many of us are touting him as the best thing since sliced Lebron (I mean bread).
Now, my All-Star picks. We’ll start in the East, and it’s worth noting this is a bounce-back year for the historically weaker conference. Often the West would see surefire All-Stars lose their spots in the game because the conference was so stacked. Meanwhile we had years in which Kyle Korver, averaging 12 points a game as the 4th option on his team, were comfortably All-Star reserves. This year there’s cases to be made for about 15 guys, which is a step in the right direction. Without further ado:
EAST
Starters:
G: Ben Simmons, Kemba Walker
Walker doesn’t have the same gaudy scoring numbers from his Charlotte days but he’s made up for that with his play-making and his leadership. The Celtics are a well-oiled machine, a far cry from the disaster they were with Kyrie Irving at point. Walker was a starter last year in Charlotte and he should be on this year again. Simmons is an easier pick though, because he’s set himself apart with his unique skillset. Simmons is an All-NBA defender that’s incredible in the open court. His near-7 foot frame lets him bully smaller guards on the block and create favorable switches on defense. If only he would attempt a 3-pointer more than once every 20 games or so.
Forwards: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jimmy Butler, Pascal Siakam
Let’s not waste words defending the Greek Freak; he’s the reigning MVP and he’s even better this year. This is the lock of all locks, he’s far and away the best player in the NBA as of this regular season. Butler, traded to Philly last year, decided to hitch his wagon down in South Beach and it’s worked great. The Heat are 20-1 at home and 2nd in the East, and Jimmy’s signature brand of defensive-minded basketball has elevated his teammates. Whether it’s rookies Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo (more later), or wily veterans Myers Leonard and Goran Dragic, the Heat have created something great down in Miami, and it all stems from Butler.
Pascal has tailed off in recent weeks, especially after missing time, but his ability to replace much of the production they lost when Kawhi Leonard signed in LA has been incredible to watch. Siakam looked like an MVP-candidate through 5 weeks of the season and has continued to score in bunches, all the while helping the Raptors keep hold on a top-3 seed. Siakam’s average 23.5 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, both career-highs, and his 36% on threes is respectable. And to be fair, at least he keeps the defense honest by attempting them (looking at you Ben!).
Reserves:
Joel Embiid, Khris Middleton, Bam Adebayo
These are all simple; all three of these players are absolutely All-stars. Embiid is struggling by his standards but he’s still probably the best C in the East and was hitting his stride before a finger-injury sidelined him for the time-being. Middleton is even better this year, flirting with the 50/40/90 club and improving his playmaking. The playoffs will be the real test for Middleton and Milwaukee but at least right now he’s proving he deserves that contract. Adebayo is like Draymond Green in that his effect isn’t measured in stats as well as other players. But watch one Miami game and you’ll see it. Butler may be their alpha dog and leading scorer. But Bam is the engine that makes them elite.
Domanatas Sabonis, Malcom Brogdon
Indiana’s dynamic duo has done it all this year, as one is proving he deserves the contract he signed (Brogdon) and one is proving he deserves a new contract (Sabonis). Indiana is comfortable in the 4/5 range, and they will get a boost when Victor Oladipo returns. Indiana has the right kind of guys to make a contender sweat in the playoffs and Brogdon’s arrival has been huge. Sometimes he looks like a star, other times he looks like a floor general, but all the time he looks like the Bucks shouldn’t have let him walk. Sabonis continues to improve and is going to earn a max offer if he keeps this up.
Bradley Beal, Jayson Tatum
Just missed: Trae Young
Tatum is having his best season, and he’s earned an All-Star nod after surviving the Kyrie experiment. Tatum is part of the three-headed monster in Boston, along with Kemba and Jaylen Brown. The three combine for >50% of the team’s PPG and it feels criminal to leave one out. Sorry Jaylen! For what it’s worth I love Brown’s improvement and think he’s acquitted himself more than Tatum in their respective roles. Tatum has more upside but Jaylen is better right now. So why reward Tatum? The numbers don’t lie.
Beal and Young is tougher for me. Beal gets in not just because I’m a DC fan but his numbers are laughably good: 28, 6, and 5 with improved defense. He’s an All-Star without question if the Wizards are in the playoffs race, but at 14-29 they are closer to the #1 pick than to the 8-seed. Which brings us to Young, a dynamic 2nd year player that’s led the Hawks to a triumphant 11-34 record… oh wait, that’s really fucking bad. Young is averaging 29, 9, and 5, almost as good as that Luka guy the Hawks could have drafted. But while Luka’s numbers translate to wins, Young’s translate to fantasy points. Yes, the Hawks are young (no pun intended), and John Collins missed time. But there’s no shortcuts to the All-Star game; ask Zach Lavine where great counting stats and a horrible team record gets you: nowhere!
WEST
Starters
Guards: James Harden, Luka Doncic
Harden is predictably still a behemoth in the scoring department, somehow improving on his >35 PPG average from last year. They shuffled Chris Paul out and Russell Westbrook in, and Harden hasn’t missed a beat. A tough shooting stretch has soured Harden in the MVP race but he’s still comfortably one of the best guards in basketball. Luka is the other obvious choice, the reigning rookie of the year and sophomore averaged nearly 29-9-9. The Mavericks are contending for a 4-seed despite missing the playoffs altogether last season, and reasons number 1-100 are all Luka Doncic. The Suns, Kings, Hawks, and Grizzlies are going to regret passing on him until the end of time.
Forwards: Lebron James, Anthony Davis, Kawhi Leonard
The 2 LA Lakers superstars are obvious picks as well. Lebron has played nearly every game and is leading the NBA in assists per game, something we always figured he could do if he wanted but it’s nice to have some evidence. Davis is similarly dominant, whether its cleaning the glass or suffocating defense, he’s been one or the 6-7 best players in the NBA all year. Kawhi Leonard regularly misses time, including almost every 2nd nigh of a back-to-back because of loss management, but when he plays he is still at an MVP level. The Clippers are a home-field team in the West because of Kawhi, period. Paul George will help them in the playoffs but it’s Kawhi’s show in LA right now.
Reserves:
Nikola Jokic, Damian Lillard
Lillard has been every bit as good as he was last year, when the Trail Blazers won 50 games and made it to the WCF. Lillard has missed some time, but when he plays he’s a do-it-all machine. The Blazers have been ravaged by injuries but Lillard is always there to pick up the slack: look no further than his 60-point game earlier this week with CJ McCollum out. I won’t penalize Lillard for a bad record the same way I won’t penalize Beal in the East. You have a proven track record as a star and it’s not your fault every teammate gets hurt.
Jokic started the season slow but has regained form the last 2.5 months. Last year we talked about him as a top-5 player in the NBA, and whether that was crazy. Since that he’s led the Nuggets to a 2-seed last year, the 4-seed this year, and has taken on more of the load with injuries to Paul Millsap and Jamal Murray. I believed Jokic was the key to unlocking the Nuggets and making them contenders and coach Mike Malone has empowered his big center. In return Jokic looks every bit as good as ever, and a clear lock for All-Star.
Rudy Gobert, Chris Paul, Ja Morant
This collection of guys is rewarding the best players on their respective teams that have led their teams to playoff contention. Gobert is the reigning DPOY and should have made an All-Star team before now; no more excuses. Whether you think his game will work in the playoffs or not (I don’t), he’s clearly an All-Star in 2020. Paul was sent to OKC for Westbrook and many believed he would be flipped for assets. Instead Paul has stayed and taken Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under his wing. The Thunder are holding tight on the 7-seed and honestly they are playing fun team basketball. Paul’s 17, 6, and 5 is plenty to earn him a spot here.
Morant is trickier, and especially since rookies have a hard time making it out West. Last year Luka didn’t make it, despite probably deserving it. Morant’s 17.5 and 7 aren’t eye-popping by usual standards but to do so as a rookie is impressive. The Grizzlies are locked in that battle for the 8th seed and it’s been Morant more than anyone that’s seized this opportunity. How much does it suck for Knicks fans: not only did you miss out on Zion, you were one pick short of grabbing Morant. Big yikes.
Donovan Mitchell, Brandon Ingram
I’m rewarding Mitchell for his role on a great team, as well as his improvement as an all-around player (25/4/4 and the 2-seed in the West). Especially with Mike Conley’s injury and apparently diminished skill set, Mitchell has taken the reigns as the alpha of that team and along with Gobert guided them to a favorable playoff spot. Ingram has zero of the same team success but his improvement offensively is staggering: 26 and 6 on near-elite efficiency. It hasn’t led to many wins, but with Zion back it should soon. I’m rewarding Ingram for working hard to justify his #2 overall status from a few seasons ago.
Well, there it is. Don’t like it? Let me know. How would you change it? I’d like to know. Is Zion the next face of the NBA? Let’s find out. But
Stats On Deck Blog 