By: Nick LaPorte, 1/21/2020
Another off-season, another disgruntled superstar that wants to be traded. We saw it with Paul George (twice), Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving, Chris Paul (twice), Shaq (many times), Anthony Davis… wait, this isn’t the NBA. This is baseball, where guys keep trade demands under wraps and all we worry about in January is when pitchers and catchers are going to report to Spring Training… and a league-shattering sign-stealing controversy that has cost 3 teams their manager and isn’t close to being over. I won’t write about the sign-stealing yet, not until the complete story unfolds. I like to be educated before I’m outraged.
Back to Nolan Arenado, the superstar 3B in Colorado that just signed an 8-year, $260 million extension prior to 2019. The Rockies and Arenado appeared to be married well into the 2020s, so what has changed so abruptly? For starters, the Rockies just finished a dismal 71-win year, after reaching the playoffs the previous two years. The Rockies struggled to pitch consistently, and so far their offseason looks like the hair on Brian McCann’s head: there’s nothing there. Arenado spoke out and said he wants to win, so why would the Rockies stand pat and watch the rest of the NL beef up their rosters? The Rockies are always dynamic offensively, but their pitching predictably sucked in 2019.
Arenado, meanwhile, finished another outstanding season. Arenado has tallied 37+ homers in each of the last 5 years and his batting average ticked up into the .310s as he continued to improve his plate discipline. On just about any team in baseball, Arenado is the #3 or #4 hitter. He’s as talented a corner infielder you’ll find, and his defense is the best at 3B that you can find. We saw Anthony Rendon sign with the Angels and many viewed him as a perfect complement to Mike Trout, the league’s perennial best player. Arenado is on the same level as Rendon, and you could argue his ability to hit the long ball makes him even more dangerous.
As a result, teams will work hard to put together a package to lure the Rockies into trading him away. Arenado has a full no-trade clause but he recently said he feels “disrespected” by his general manager. Arenado prioritizes winning over all, and the Rockies seem to be signaling that winning isn’t their #1 priority. As ESPN’s Jeff Passan puts it, “The disrespect, sources told ESPN, centered on the Rockies’ winter of inaction less than a year after the team signed Arenado to an eight-year, $260 million contract extension.” Why else sit and watch as multiple great starting pitchers sign elsewhere? Why else do nothing when competent bullpen guys are going for short-term affordable deals? The Nationals signed Will Harris and Daniel Hudson for a fraction of the cost of one Arenado. If the Rockies were willing to pay Arenado one year ago, why tighten the purse strings so abruptly?
If the Rockies do trade Arenado, there’s no scenario in which they win the trade. Bill Simmons often says the team who gets the best player usually wins the trade. I think he’s absolutely right; if you land 3 great prospects, chances are small that even one of them is as good as Arenado. Ever. Also Arenado is a sure thing. Yes, he’s expensive. But he’s .300 with 35+ homers and elite defense every year, period. No matter what you get for him in a trade you’re unlikely to fill the whole that Arenado’s departure would leave. On record the Rockies would be stupid to trade him. But since they seem insistent on at least feeling out the market, let’s look at landing spots for Arenado.
1. St. Louis Cardinals
An NLCS sweep has the Cardinals thinking about ways to improve their club, and Arenado is a perfect fit. Tommy Edman looked solid when he played third but he can slot in RF easily and let Arenado be their everyday 3B. The Cardinals were the best pitching staff in the NL by season’s end, and the one question mark heading into the playoffs for them was can they score enough runs? In the first 3 games of the NLCS, all losses, the Cardinals failed to tally 3 runs in a single game. Arenado is an offensive aficionado and he can be the “big bat” in their playoff ready lineup.
The Cardinals have a stacked farm system, as always, and they have a few particularly intriguing prospects for the Rockies to take a look at. One is OF Dylan Carlson, a top-25 prospect in baseball that has great power potential as a switch hitter. The Cardinals also have a great LHP in Matthew Liberatore, which is crucial for the Rockies to acquire if they ever want to succeed as a consistent contender. One other interesting prospect is Nolan Gorman, a 3B. Maybe the Rockies could trade their Nolan for another, slide him in at 3B, and hope their fans are too stoned to notice… yeah, scratch that. But the Cardinals have the farm system needed to make a deal like this happen.
2. Chicago Cubs
Staying in the NL Central, it may be strange to suggest the Cubs need a 3B. They have Kris Bryant after all, the 2016 NL MVP who is still just 28 years old. Arenado is an improvement for sure; Arenado is better in every facet of the game. He’s a better power hitter, contact hitter, defender, and more consistent. The Cubs missed the playoffs in 2019 for the first time since 2014. They lost their manager, Joe Maddon, to the Angels. They need to do something to avoid the depths of mediocrity and with Bryant’s future up in the air (free agent after 2021), Arenado could be the key to the Cubs sustaining a run of dominance in the NL.
The Cubs don’t have quite as good a farm system as the Cardinals. Their best prospect is Nico Hoerner, a SS that just barely cracks the top-50 prospect list. It would take some kind of miracle for the Cubs to pull of a trade of this magnitude. However, if they trade Bryant to a needy team like, say, the Braves or Nationals, they could replenish their farm system and then parlay that into a package for Arenado. In that case though, why wouldn’t the Rockies deal directly with the team that wants Bryant, and try to reap those rewards for Arenado instead? All in all I don’t see the Cubs getting this done unless they completely sell the farm.
3. Atlanta Braves
With two straight NL East division championships, the Braves have righted the ship after 4 years of hell. The Braves have a great mixture of young talent and veteran leadership, with All-Stars Freddie Freeman and Ronald Acuña Jr. leading their lineup and young star Mike Soroka turning in an impressive rookie season. It’s not all roses though; the Braves lost Josh Donaldson in free agency to the Twins, and they don’t have a credible replacement for him in house. They’ve kicked the tires on Kris Bryant, and they have the assets to get it done, but nothing has materialized to this point.
Arenado would make them NL favorites once again, and like I said the Braves have the prospects to make the Rockies say yes. Atlanta has collected 4 top-50 MLB.com prospects and they have a variety of OF and pitching prospects that the Rockies could use. If you trade Arenado, you better replenish your farm with a lot of great prospects. Short of acquiring Gavin Lux from the Dodgers, the Braves could probably offer the best haul for the Rockies in a potential Arenado deal.
4. Washington Nationals
The defending World Series champions retained almost all of their team, including a mammoth deal to keep WS MVP Stephen Strasburg in DC. The one notable loss was Anthony Rendon, the star 3B who left for the Angels. Like the Braves, the Nationals don’t have an in-house slam dunk to replace their departing star 3B. There’s Howie Kendrick, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Starlin Castro, all veterans with experience at every position on the infield. The Nationals will trot Cabrera out at 2B a lot, same with Kendrick, and both can play 3B if needed. Castro also can earn time at both positions, and like last year expect the Nationals to ride the “hot hand” more than naming a specific 2B. But 3B is still a question mark both short term and long term, and the only other in-house candidate is Carter Kieboom. Last year Kieboom played 2B and SS when Trea Turner missed time, but Kieboom was an unmitigated disaster. After spending the final 4 months in AAA Kieboom will get a chance in Spring Training to earn the 3B job.
Arenado would completely fill that hole left by Rendon, and the Nationals should be working hard to try and work a trade. Their farm system isn’t great; their top 2 prospects of yesteryear are Juan Soto and Victor Robles who are both established major leaguers now. Soto is a star, and is untouchable in any trade talks. Robles is more trade-able, and the Nationals were able to win playoff games with Michael Taylor filling in for Robles for stretches. Robles is incredibly talented; he’s already a gold glove caliber CF and his bat grades as an Adam Jones-level in the future. The Nationals would probably have to trade Robles and Kieboom to get this deal done, along with at least 1-2 of their young pitcher prospects. But Arenado is worth it, and would take the Nats from division contenders to NL favorites.
5. Texas Rangers
The Rangers wanted Rendon badly, but he chose their division rival Angels and then the Rangers shifted their focus to Donaldson. Now with Donaldson in Minnesota, the Rangers have turned their attention to Arenado. It seems like the Rangers are always the bridesmaid never the bride with available 3Bs, and it’s been an area of weakness since Adrian Beltre retired. I don’t think the Rangers are a serious threat to get Arenado but it would be better from the Rockies’ perspective to trade out of the NL, and the Rangers are the only AL team with interest. Arenado is arguably the best 3B in baseball. The only other contenders: Anthony Rendon, Rafael Devers, and Alex Bregman are all in the AL. But Arenado could be better than all of them in the right spot.
One problem is the Rangers don’t have a great farm system, with no top-50 prospects in their system. Josh Jung is a solid 3B and would obviously fill the potential hole at third for Colorado, but there are so many teams on this list with better prospects it just makes zero sense to trade Arenado to Texas. There’s precedent for lopsided trades in baseball, and Arenado’s semi-public trade demand the will hurt Colorado’s leverage. But I don’t see a world where the Rangers can make this happen.
Other teams will do their due diligence, namely the Phillies, but one of these 5 teams is probably the right landing spot for Arenado if the Rockies do trade him. Arenado will demand a high price of prospects if a deal does materialize, and that doesn’t seem close to happening. Still, these things can happen rapidly. Giancarlo Stanton won the NL MVP in November of 2017. He was traded to the Yankees not 3 months later. Especially when the relationship becomes frayed, as it seems it has in this case with Arenado, a trade can go from “not close” to “finalized” in the blink of an eye. The Braves are probably the ones to watch out for I think, as they have the prospects and the payroll to make it a perfect marriage.
This is disappointing for the Rockies to be in this position just about 15 months after making a second straight postseason. With the Arenado/Trevor Story infield the Rockies looked poised to challenge the Dodgers for supremacy in the NL West. Instead they may be tearing it down, trading their beloved superstar to hit the reset button. The Rockies shocked us all in 2007 with “Rocktober,” an impressive run all the way through the NLCS. But when the World Series rolled around, David Ortiz and the Red Sox flattened the Rockies and they have failed to come close to that height in the decade since.
One thing is certain: trading Arenado would be stupid, but since the Rockies seem to be abandoning logic, a superstar 3B is on the market and teams will pay a hefty price to acquire someone like Arenado. This could also set a market for Kris Bryant, who has been somewhat disgruntled in Chicago over service-time complaints. We may see 2 MVP-caliber 3Bs change teams in the coming months, after seeing 2 others (Rendon and Donaldson) change teams since October. Enjoy it folks!
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