By: Nick LaPorte, 1/16/2020
Another year, another Patriots AFC Championship Game… oh wait, for the first time since 2011 that’s not true! Instead we have the Chiefs hosting for the 2nd time in a row, but this time they face the Titans, an upstart 6th seed that’s already beat Tom Brady’s Patriots and the likely MVP Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. In the other conference the #1 seed 49ers host Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Rodgers returns to the NFC Championship game for the first time since 2014, when the Packers blew a 4th-quarter lead to the Seahawks (who eventually lost to the Patriots). Meanwhile the 49ers are back for the first time since 2013, 3 head coaches later but once again the #1 team in the NFC.
The thing I really like about this championship weekend is there are, by my estimation, 2 Hall-of-Fame level QBs going this weekend, only they are playing in different games. Rodgers, an obvious Hall-of-Famer and one of the best QBs in NFL history, is looking for a chance at his second Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes doesn’t have the same track record as Rodgers but in his 2 years as a starter he’s thrown 75+ TDs, passed for nearly 9,000 yards, hosted the AFC Championship game twice, and looks like the future of the QB position as we see the old ones like Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and eventually Rodgers phase out of the game. That’s not to say all 4 of these teams rely heavily on the QB; in fact 3 of them are here because of their staunch defenses and rushing attacks.
The most obvious pick here is the Titans, led by Derrick Henry who is playing the RB position in a way we haven’t seen in decades. Henry is bullying his way through supposedly better teams, and as far as I can tell is unstoppable. The Ravens talked a big game after Henry rushed for nearly 200 yards in a win against the Patriots. They planned to slow him down and make the Titans beat them in another way. Instead Henry once again rushed for nearly 200 yards, something he’s done for 3 straight weeks heading into Sunday’s contest. The Titans turned their season around when they switched QBs, going with Ryan Tannehill instead of Marcus Mariota. It was good enough to secure a playoff spot. But the Titans didn’t really become contenders until Henry started running like he was John Riggins in 1982. If the Titans are going to make it all the way, it’ll be on the back of Henry, who seems more than prepared for the challenge.
The Packers also rely on their star RB Aaron Jones, who has helped make the game easier on QB Aaron Rodgers. Indeed the Packers haven’t needed Rodgers to be the same MVP he once was; Rodgers’ TD-rate is down to ~4.5% from >9% back in his glory days. There were games where Rodgers flashed excellence; the Raiders game comes to mind, as does the Giants game. But the Packers have been winning because Jones is an elite RB, and because their smith brothers are punishing opposing QBs. The Packers signed Zadarius Smith and Preston Smith in the offseason, and I think there hasn’t been a better tandem of pass-rushers in football this year. Zadarius led the league in sacks created and he combined with Preston Smith for 25 sacks and about a million QB hits. If the Packers win it will be because the Smiths strike again and make 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo start seeing ghosts.
Speaking of the 49ers, who thrashed the Vikings on Saturday to the tune of a 27-10 victory, their RBs are playing as well as anyone. Tevin Coleman, Matt Brieda, and Raheem Mostert combined for 180 yards on 42 carries (4.28 YPC). It wasn’t a series of big runs, or explosive plays. It was just a steady diet of 3-5 yard runs that burned the clock and crushed the Vikings will. As my co-host on Stats on Deck likes to say, it was “death by a thousand paper cuts.” The 49ers play physical up front, and their offensive line is crucial to their success. Standout TE George Kittle may have only caught 3 passes for 16 yards but his ferocious run-blocking was a story of its own. That’s part of what makes the 49ers terrifying; if you slow down one facet of their offense they find another way to beat you. Success has followed Kyle Shanahan whenever he’s gone, and his offense was nearly good enough to win the Falcons the Super Bowl in 2016, before a late collapse to the Patriots. Now, on a different team with head coaching duties as well, Shanahan gets a chance to return to the super bowl and correct his mistakes.
As I mentioned, the Titans, Packers, and 49ers are all ground-and-pound offenses with stellar defenses, and all 3 teams attack the game in a similar way. Then there are the Chiefs, who were a record-setting offense a year ago. Mahomes, the 2nd year QB and first-year starter, tossed 50 TDs and 5,000 passing yards in just 15 games. After 3 more games this year he looked on pace to break those records, but injuries to his ankle, kneecap, and throwing hand hampered his play at times this year. Still, the numbers suggest he was every bit as good as last year, albeit with less overall counting stats. In situations like red-zone and goal-line offense and # of possessions (as well as time of possession) the Chiefs regressed. But those areas are volatile year to year, and it’s not like Mahomes got worse. He just had different and less opportunities to set records. The good news for him is the Chiefs are hot at the right time, coming off a 51-31 thrashing of the Texans (in which they trailed 24-0). At one point Mahomes had led the Chiefs to score 7 straight TDs on 7 straight possessions. The things he can do on a football field are just unreal.
On to the games, and my picks.
49ERS OVER Packers (-7.5)
While I would love to see Aaron Rodgers win another Super Bowl, it’s just not in the cards this year. The 49ers have been the best team in football consistently all year, and their defense is healthy at the right time. Rodgers can still make magic happen, but it’s too tall a task to ask him to beat this 49ers team. Barring any ridiculous turnovers or mental miscues the 49ers will play in Miami 2 weeks from Sunday. Having said all of that, if the Packers can build a lead early they can win this game. Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t had to come back and win games with his arm as much as some QBs. He’s had his moments but at times the moment gets too big; he threw an INT last week because he panicked. The Packers have to stop the run and limit play-action, and then set the Smith Brothers loose to chase Jimmy around in the 2nd half. Otherwise the 49ers will return to the Super Bowl for the first time since losing it in 2012.
CHIEFS OVER Titans (-7.5)
I mean it’s no fun just picking heavy favorites to win and cover but that’s what this week feels like. The Chiefs are just too good offensively to lose the way the Ravens and Patriots did to these Titans. Derrick Henry could rush for 300 yards and it isn’t enough to beat Mahomes. In fact, Mahomes is literally unbeatable when you think about it. In games where the Chiefs lose, he still routinely throws for 300+ yards. Last year they lost the AFFCG because of penalties and bad defense, Mahomes was more than good enough to make it to the Super Bowl. Their defense is better this year and Mahomes is peaking at the right time. Even if they trail early the Chiefs will win this one big late. The Titans’ only recourse is forcing a repeat of their week 12 matchup, in which the Titans won 35-32. Unfortunately for them this one is in Arrowhead and Mahomes is healthy. Sorry Titans fans, it’s not your year.
More to come in the next few weeks including more podcasts, better utilization of the statsondeck.com website, and some great NFL coverage as the season winds down. Then it’s just hockey and NBA until March Madness folks!
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